Megawati: RI's next president?

By Jusuf Wanandi

JAKARTA (JP): With a successful congress behind her, Megawati Soekarnoputri can now concentrate on consolidating her faction of the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) and preparing for the general election in May 1999. As the daughter of the nation's first president Sukarno and with her own popularity standing out as the embodiment of protest against the Soeharto and Habibie regimes, she is well placed to lead the PDI faction loyal to her on to win the largest number of seats in the House of Representatives (DPR) and the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) at next year's general election. Although the PDI might not win a majority of seats, supported by a coalition of parties including the party affiliated to Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), the National Awakening Party (PKB), or even the National Mandate Party (PAN) led by Amien Rais, Megawati could become Indonesia's next president.

Questions are being asked about what kind of president she would turn out to be if elected -- a figurehead like Corry Aquino in the Philippines? Or the reformist leader so desperately needed by Indonesia? To be a symbolic head of state alone would not be enough for Indonesia at this point in time. Indonesia has entered a completely new era and a new strategy for national development is imperative. In this context Megawati has already been criticized for not having included enough young leaders on the central board of her party. Furthermore, she is viewed as not having made the effort to reach out to bring in more political heavyweights as her advisors, staff and assistants. Analysts say that would give her fresh ideas on how best to tackle Indonesia's future and it is therefore worth noting that foreign correspondents and diplomats after meeting with her have at times expressed exasperation at what appears to be her lack of vision.

Nevertheless, it is true to say that Megawati and the PDI will not win votes through her ability, or lack of it, to wax lyrical with foreign correspondents and diplomats, or for that matter through her ability to satisfy Indonesia's intellectuals. She will be elected because she has the support of the small people. This comes about through her leadership abilities, her name and her views, as understood by them.

But if she is to become a successful president at a critical point in Indonesia's history, she must pay attention to the younger generation and to intellectuals capable of making constructive contributions to the debate on Indonesia's future course. She should also strive to build stronger links with the foreign community, since they will be an important partner in promoting Indonesia's future wellbeing.

It is worth pointing out that she has much more experience as a political leader than first meets the eye. As her father's daughter, she received a political education from one of the best in the business. She has been a member of parliament for two terms and led the PDI outright before she was ousted by the Soeharto regime. Not only does she have charisma, she has a very strong sense of responsibility to the Constitution and the rule of law, as she has demonstrated throughout her time as a prominent opposition leader.

These are crucial qualities for any future Indonesian president, since the rule of law and the Constitution were trampled underfoot during the Soeharto regime and are now in dire need of vigorous resuscitation. A president without these qualities would be unable to rein in the state of lawlessness that is all-pervading in Indonesia today.

She has shown herself to be a strong personality, particularly through the way she has faced the pressure the government has brought to bear on her over the last three years. But more than that, she has demonstrated her ability to listen to her advisors and to grasp the realities and ideas that have developed and changed Indonesia over the last 30 years. In a sense, she has outgrown the original ideas of her late father, former president Sukarno. While she is still committed to the interests and plight of the common people, she is also very receptive to the importance of opening the economy up to market forces and participating in the process of globalization. A special challenge to her will be to strike the correct balance between the interests of the small people and the forces of the market. She is very committed to democracy, the rule of law and human rights, having herself been on the receiving end of a number of abuses of these three central tenets of democracy during the rules of both Soeharto and Habibie.

One of the main challenges now facing the country is how to convince the Indonesian people that continued participation in the process of globalization is a condition sine qua non for modernization, despite the temporary setback posed by the economic crisis. There is a real danger of opposition to globalization, the West and particularly the U.S.A. rising up in the near future. Soeharto will not be available as a convenient scapegoat for much longer, and more than ever Indonesia now needs to open her economy to outside capital and technology as a prerequisite not only to overcoming the economic crisis, but to bring about modernization. Only Megawati would be able to convince the Indonesian people, especially the small people, of the importance of this. Her own popularity, leadership, incorruptibility, views, and lineage make them believe that she will be able to attain that elusive balance.

It has to be recognized at this stage that her candidacy, while having a good chance, still has some way to go. First it will depend on the support she gets from other parties since her most likely chance of success will come through the formation of a coalition to attain a majority in the MPR. Second, Habibie and others will do their utmost to hamper her candidacy because she and the PDI will be formidable opponents in the election to come. There is even is even a chance that a postponement of the elections will be engineered by those opposed to her. That would be a serious setback to future stability and development here. Without the legitimacy of a general election, the already precarious political situation could teeter over the brink and open the door to anarchy in Indonesia.