Megawati: RI's next president?

Megawati: RI's next president?

By Jusuf Wanandi

JAKARTA (JP): With a successful congress behind her, Megawati
Soekarnoputri can now concentrate on consolidating her faction of
the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) and preparing for the
general election in May 1999. As the daughter of the nation's
first president Sukarno and with her own popularity standing out
as the embodiment of protest against the Soeharto and Habibie
regimes, she is well placed to lead the PDI faction loyal to her
on to win the largest number of seats in the House of
Representatives (DPR) and the People's Consultative Assembly
(MPR) at next year's general election. Although the PDI might not
win a majority of seats, supported by a coalition of parties
including the party affiliated to Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), the
National Awakening Party (PKB), or even the National Mandate
Party (PAN) led by Amien Rais, Megawati could become Indonesia's
next president.

Questions are being asked about what kind of president she
would turn out to be if elected -- a figurehead like Corry Aquino
in the Philippines? Or the reformist leader so desperately needed
by Indonesia? To be a symbolic head of state alone would not be
enough for Indonesia at this point in time. Indonesia has entered
a completely new era and a new strategy for national development
is imperative. In this context Megawati has already been
criticized for not having included enough young leaders on the
central board of her party. Furthermore, she is viewed as not
having made the effort to reach out to bring in more political
heavyweights as her advisors, staff and assistants. Analysts say
that would give her fresh ideas on how best to tackle Indonesia's
future and it is therefore worth noting that foreign
correspondents and diplomats after meeting with her have at times
expressed exasperation at what appears to be her lack of vision.

Nevertheless, it is true to say that Megawati and the PDI will
not win votes through her ability, or lack of it, to wax lyrical
with foreign correspondents and diplomats, or for that matter
through her ability to satisfy Indonesia's intellectuals. She
will be elected because she has the support of the small people.
This comes about through her leadership abilities, her name and
her views, as understood by them.

But if she is to become a successful president at a critical
point in Indonesia's history, she must pay attention to the
younger generation and to intellectuals capable of making
constructive contributions to the debate on Indonesia's future
course. She should also strive to build stronger links with the
foreign community, since they will be an important partner in
promoting Indonesia's future wellbeing.

It is worth pointing out that she has much more experience as
a political leader than first meets the eye. As her father's
daughter, she received a political education from one of the best
in the business. She has been a member of parliament for two
terms and led the PDI outright before she was ousted by the
Soeharto regime. Not only does she have charisma, she has a very
strong sense of responsibility to the Constitution and the rule
of law, as she has demonstrated throughout her time as a
prominent opposition leader.

These are crucial qualities for any future Indonesian
president, since the rule of law and the Constitution were
trampled underfoot during the Soeharto regime and are now in dire
need of vigorous resuscitation. A president without these
qualities would be unable to rein in the state of lawlessness
that is all-pervading in Indonesia today.

She has shown herself to be a strong personality, particularly
through the way she has faced the pressure the government has
brought to bear on her over the last three years. But more than
that, she has demonstrated her ability to listen to her advisors
and to grasp the realities and ideas that have developed and
changed Indonesia over the last 30 years. In a sense, she has
outgrown the original ideas of her late father, former president
Sukarno. While she is still committed to the interests and plight
of the common people, she is also very receptive to the
importance of opening the economy up to market forces and
participating in the process of globalization. A special
challenge to her will be to strike the correct balance between
the interests of the small people and the forces of the market.
She is very committed to democracy, the rule of law and human
rights, having herself been on the receiving end of a number of
abuses of these three central tenets of democracy during the
rules of both Soeharto and Habibie.

One of the main challenges now facing the country is how to
convince the Indonesian people that continued participation in
the process of globalization is a condition sine qua non for
modernization, despite the temporary setback posed by the
economic crisis. There is a real danger of opposition to
globalization, the West and particularly the U.S.A. rising up in
the near future. Soeharto will not be available as a convenient
scapegoat for much longer, and more than ever Indonesia now needs
to open her economy to outside capital and technology as a
prerequisite not only to overcoming the economic crisis, but to
bring about modernization. Only Megawati would be able to
convince the Indonesian people, especially the small people, of
the importance of this. Her own popularity, leadership,
incorruptibility, views, and lineage make them believe that she
will be able to attain that elusive balance.

It has to be recognized at this stage that her candidacy,
while having a good chance, still has some way to go. First it
will depend on the support she gets from other parties since her
most likely chance of success will come through the formation of
a coalition to attain a majority in the MPR. Second, Habibie and
others will do their utmost to hamper her candidacy because she
and the PDI will be formidable opponents in the election to come.
There is even is even a chance that a postponement of the
elections will be engineered by those opposed to her. That would
be a serious setback to future stability and development here.
Without the legitimacy of a general election, the already
precarious political situation could teeter over the brink and
open the door to anarchy in Indonesia.