Megawati presidency not foregone conclusion

Megawati presidency not foregone conclusion

By Winarno Zain

JAKARTA (JP): Barring any odd developments, the victory of the
Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) in the
June 7 elections is a foregone conclusion. But party chairwoman
Megawati Soekarnoputri has not been assured of the presidency.
This is because of the unique Indonesian political system and the
peculiar political behavior of the parties which contested the
elections.

Political pundits have not yet found any explanations for
several surprising results of the elections: the victory of PDI
Perjuangan in several regions previously considered strongholds
of Islamic parties; the continuing strength of Golkar Party
despite widespread criticism for their role in the Soeharto
regime; and why the National Mandate Party (PAN), despite the
popularity of chairman Amien Rais and much fanfare during the
campaign, is trailing far behind the leading parties.

Whatever question one tries to answer, clearly the results of
the elections reflect developments in Indonesia during the 30-
year reign of former president Soeharto. These results tell us
what has changed and what has not during those three decades of
the New Order regime.

Despite double digit economic growth over the last decade,
Indonesian society, particularly in Java, remains traditional,
rural and feudal.

This is most apparent in the political behavior of
Indonesians. They maintain their traditional attachments and
loyalties to social organizations, leaders and descendants; all
of which have been familiar to them during their lifetimes.
Clearly, a change to pragmatic politics is still a long way off.

Indeed, education is responsible for the maintenance of old
value systems. The quality of Indonesia's educational system is
outdated and has failed to broaden the outlook of its students.

In feudal Java, dynasty has a special place and meaning in the
heart and minds of the people. It is the most revered value in
social relationships. Megawati and Abdurrahman Wahid (popularly
known as Gus Dur), the leader of Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), the
largest Muslim organization in the country which also comprises
the main support for the National Awakening Party (PKB), founded
by Gus Dur, enjoy a special status because they are perceived as
being part of dynasties. Megawati is the daughter of the
country's founding president and Gus Dur is the grandson of the
founder of the largest Islamic organization in Indonesia.

It is no coincidence, therefore, that the politics of dynasty
symbolized by Megawati and Gus Dur still attract the masses and
bind millions of people into a common community. One should not
underestimate the strong influence of dynasty in politics. In
feudal India, thousands of people belonging to the Congress Party
recently wept and begged Mrs. Sonya Gandhi, an Italian-born woman
and a daughter-in-law of the Gandhi family, to continue to lead
the Congress Party. Java, after all, is not much different from
India.

It is clear that the pattern of voting in the elections
reflects the feeling of insecurity felt by millions of people
during the greatest political and social transformation in
Indonesian history. Even before the crisis, Indonesia was torn
between tradition and modernization.

In politics, the traditional hierarchical relationship was
shattered by Soeharto's authoritarian regime. In the economic
sector, the closed and familial system was replaced by a more
materialistic and capitalistic system. People were uprooted from
their traditional lives and thrown into all types of new
situations. When the economic crisis hit the country, millions of
people were deprived of their income due to mass layoffs. The lid
of social integration was blown off, turning an already
precarious social balance into social violence and
disintegration.

As life continues to get more uncertain and insecure, people
are scrambling for an anchor and some sense of security. They are
looking for leaders who they feel can provide them with security
and protection from the uncertainties of life. At this critical
time, Megawati and Gus Dur appeared and seemed to extend their
warm embraces to the restless masses. Megawati and Gus Dur are
leaders the people feel will save them and lift them from their
malaise.

This explains the large number of votes garnered by PDI
Perjuangan and PKB. At this critical juncture, you cannot expect
people to instantly change their attitudes and loyalties. People
will feel secure with something they have been familiar with for
a long time.

The reason why Golkar Party could receive so many votes in a
number of regions is because people want to stick with the
familiar. To many people, Golkar Party, after 30 years of rule,
represents familiarity, security and stability.

It is also for these reasons that Amien Rais' PAN did not win
as many votes as expected. Amien, who as a scholar of political
science, should have realized that the social movements which he
championed prior to the fall of Soeharto were not the same thing
as real politics.

They are two different landscapes with different rules. Amien
must have wondered by now, the cruel irony of politics, why
success in social movements is no guarantee of success in
practical politics.

The number of votes won by PAN confirms the opinion of
analysts that PAN has not touched grassroots voters. To millions
of voters, Amien Rais was an unknown, a strange creature,
wandering in the political wilderness with unfamiliar and strange
messages. Amien Rais' call to fight the status quo, pursue reform
and uphold justice by bringing Soeharto and his family to court,
were not in tune with the people's desire for peace and
stability. The outspoken Amien, who pursues his high-profile
politics with harsh words, clashed with Javanese culture, which
honors modesty and humility, and equates silence with mystical
power and integrity.

Naturally, a lot of questions must be asked before the
possibility of a Megawati presidency. Some of these questions are
fundamental and basic, and the answers to these questions will
shape the future of Indonesian political discourse.

Will Megawati be able to overcome the gravest crisis in
Indonesian history? How will a housewife and college dropout who
said she drew her strength from several meetings with her late
father in her dreams lead the nation into the modern age? Does
she really understand the need to enact reforms? How committed is
she to reform, if by reforms we mean dismantling the archaic
systems and rules which put obstacles in the way of a democratic
society?

And when she is in power, will she really be committed to
democracy? Will she become more flexible on certain issues on
which she has been, to this point, steadfast. Among these issues
is her belief that the 1945 Constitution should not be amended,
that the unitary system for Indonesia should be preserved and her
rejection of a referendum for Aceh and East Timor. And she has
yet to make clear her stand on the abolishment of the Indonesian
Military's dual function and bringing Soeharto to court.

Megawati's leadership of PDI Perjuangan has frequently been
described as traditional. She has the power to veto any decisions
and proposals made by members of her inner circle. Her followers
readily obey her decisions and few arguments are heard from them.
Members of her inner circle do not have the courage to challenge
her opinions. This has led some analysts, including political
analyst Arief Budiman, to describe her leadership as
"authoritarian".

Dr. Mochtar Buchori, one of Megawati's advisers, has raised
concern about the members of her inner circle. And worries about
possible corruption and nepotism among Megawati's close
associates have also been heard.

Megawati, if elected president, would rule an Indonesia whose
political landscapes had been totally transformed. She would have
to tread a narrow path and would have to be extremely careful not
to cross "the fault line" which pits the so-called secular-
nationalists against Islamic groups.

If not dealt with carefully, these conflicts could turn into a
political minefield for her. Her government would be surrounded
by various groups, all eager to mount an opposition. The
opposition would not only come from other political parties, but
also from student movements, the press, non-governmental
organizations and various social organizations. These groups
would exercise tight control over Megawati's regime, and would
closely watch her government to ensure it did not waver in
implementing reform.

Despite the nationalistic tone of some of her speeches, the
economic policies of her party are open-minded and are more or
less in line with the current economic mainstream. This is
clearly the influence of a number of economists who happen to be
members of her inner circle. One of them, Kwik Kian Gie, has
spoken about continuing to follow market mechanisms and other
investor-friendly policies.

Laksamana Sukardi, another of Megawati's influential advisers,
has spoken sympathetically about the need for Indonesia to
continue economic reforms under the auspices of the International
Monetary Fund. Laksamana, a former executive at Lippo Bank,
appreciates the need to achieve a strong macroeconomic base in
order for Indonesia to achieve a sustainable economic recovery.

The only PDI Perjuangan program which may cause apprehension
among investors is Kwik's proposal to adopt a pegged exchange
rate for the rupiah. He has spoken of the need to peg the rupiah
at Rp 5,000 against the U.S. dollar. This is a very risky
proposal. Kwik should have learned that in a weak macroeconomic
environment, pegging the exchange rate amounts to making Bank
Indonesia (BI) a sitting duck for speculators and fund managers.

Knowing that BI does not have enough reserves, speculators
would begin to surround the central bank, like predators
encircling their prey, before they moved in for the kill and
forced BI to devalue the rupiah, giving them huge profits.
Pegging the exchange rate amid weak macroeconomic fundamentals
would create instability, not stability.

Several months will pass before the People's Consultative
Assembly (MPR) meets to elect the next president. In the
meantime, political haggling, bargaining and horse-trading
between political parties will dominate the political scene.

Alliances between political parties are now forming and
shifting with such frequency that the demarcation line separating
reform and status quo parties has blurred. Even the "holy
alliance" between Megawati and Gus Dur is in danger and is not
immune to cracks amid the intensive political bargaining. Such is
the fury of the power struggle prior to the MPR session, no
presidential candidate can be assured of victory.

For Megawati, despite her party's seemingly assured victory in
the elections, the road to Merdeka Palace will be long and
arduous. That is why, for the moment at least, her presidency is
not a foregone conclusion.

The writer is an economic columnist and former deputy editor
of SWA business magazine.