Megawati presidency not foregone conclusion

By Winarno Zain

JAKARTA (JP): Barring any odd developments, the victory of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) in the June 7 elections is a foregone conclusion. But party chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri has not been assured of the presidency. This is because of the unique Indonesian political system and the peculiar political behavior of the parties which contested the elections.

Political pundits have not yet found any explanations for several surprising results of the elections: the victory of PDI Perjuangan in several regions previously considered strongholds of Islamic parties; the continuing strength of Golkar Party despite widespread criticism for their role in the Soeharto regime; and why the National Mandate Party (PAN), despite the popularity of chairman Amien Rais and much fanfare during the campaign, is trailing far behind the leading parties.

Whatever question one tries to answer, clearly the results of the elections reflect developments in Indonesia during the 30- year reign of former president Soeharto. These results tell us what has changed and what has not during those three decades of the New Order regime.

Despite double digit economic growth over the last decade, Indonesian society, particularly in Java, remains traditional, rural and feudal.

This is most apparent in the political behavior of Indonesians. They maintain their traditional attachments and loyalties to social organizations, leaders and descendants; all of which have been familiar to them during their lifetimes. Clearly, a change to pragmatic politics is still a long way off.

Indeed, education is responsible for the maintenance of old value systems. The quality of Indonesia's educational system is outdated and has failed to broaden the outlook of its students.

In feudal Java, dynasty has a special place and meaning in the heart and minds of the people. It is the most revered value in social relationships. Megawati and Abdurrahman Wahid (popularly known as Gus Dur), the leader of Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), the largest Muslim organization in the country which also comprises the main support for the National Awakening Party (PKB), founded by Gus Dur, enjoy a special status because they are perceived as being part of dynasties. Megawati is the daughter of the country's founding president and Gus Dur is the grandson of the founder of the largest Islamic organization in Indonesia.

It is no coincidence, therefore, that the politics of dynasty symbolized by Megawati and Gus Dur still attract the masses and bind millions of people into a common community. One should not underestimate the strong influence of dynasty in politics. In feudal India, thousands of people belonging to the Congress Party recently wept and begged Mrs. Sonya Gandhi, an Italian-born woman and a daughter-in-law of the Gandhi family, to continue to lead the Congress Party. Java, after all, is not much different from India.

It is clear that the pattern of voting in the elections reflects the feeling of insecurity felt by millions of people during the greatest political and social transformation in Indonesian history. Even before the crisis, Indonesia was torn between tradition and modernization.

In politics, the traditional hierarchical relationship was shattered by Soeharto's authoritarian regime. In the economic sector, the closed and familial system was replaced by a more materialistic and capitalistic system. People were uprooted from their traditional lives and thrown into all types of new situations. When the economic crisis hit the country, millions of people were deprived of their income due to mass layoffs. The lid of social integration was blown off, turning an already precarious social balance into social violence and disintegration.

As life continues to get more uncertain and insecure, people are scrambling for an anchor and some sense of security. They are looking for leaders who they feel can provide them with security and protection from the uncertainties of life. At this critical time, Megawati and Gus Dur appeared and seemed to extend their warm embraces to the restless masses. Megawati and Gus Dur are leaders the people feel will save them and lift them from their malaise.

This explains the large number of votes garnered by PDI Perjuangan and PKB. At this critical juncture, you cannot expect people to instantly change their attitudes and loyalties. People will feel secure with something they have been familiar with for a long time.

The reason why Golkar Party could receive so many votes in a number of regions is because people want to stick with the familiar. To many people, Golkar Party, after 30 years of rule, represents familiarity, security and stability.

It is also for these reasons that Amien Rais' PAN did not win as many votes as expected. Amien, who as a scholar of political science, should have realized that the social movements which he championed prior to the fall of Soeharto were not the same thing as real politics.

They are two different landscapes with different rules. Amien must have wondered by now, the cruel irony of politics, why success in social movements is no guarantee of success in practical politics.

The number of votes won by PAN confirms the opinion of analysts that PAN has not touched grassroots voters. To millions of voters, Amien Rais was an unknown, a strange creature, wandering in the political wilderness with unfamiliar and strange messages. Amien Rais' call to fight the status quo, pursue reform and uphold justice by bringing Soeharto and his family to court, were not in tune with the people's desire for peace and stability. The outspoken Amien, who pursues his high-profile politics with harsh words, clashed with Javanese culture, which honors modesty and humility, and equates silence with mystical power and integrity.

Naturally, a lot of questions must be asked before the possibility of a Megawati presidency. Some of these questions are fundamental and basic, and the answers to these questions will shape the future of Indonesian political discourse.

Will Megawati be able to overcome the gravest crisis in Indonesian history? How will a housewife and college dropout who said she drew her strength from several meetings with her late father in her dreams lead the nation into the modern age? Does she really understand the need to enact reforms? How committed is she to reform, if by reforms we mean dismantling the archaic systems and rules which put obstacles in the way of a democratic society?

And when she is in power, will she really be committed to democracy? Will she become more flexible on certain issues on which she has been, to this point, steadfast. Among these issues is her belief that the 1945 Constitution should not be amended, that the unitary system for Indonesia should be preserved and her rejection of a referendum for Aceh and East Timor. And she has yet to make clear her stand on the abolishment of the Indonesian Military's dual function and bringing Soeharto to court.

Megawati's leadership of PDI Perjuangan has frequently been described as traditional. She has the power to veto any decisions and proposals made by members of her inner circle. Her followers readily obey her decisions and few arguments are heard from them. Members of her inner circle do not have the courage to challenge her opinions. This has led some analysts, including political analyst Arief Budiman, to describe her leadership as "authoritarian".

Dr. Mochtar Buchori, one of Megawati's advisers, has raised concern about the members of her inner circle. And worries about possible corruption and nepotism among Megawati's close associates have also been heard.

Megawati, if elected president, would rule an Indonesia whose political landscapes had been totally transformed. She would have to tread a narrow path and would have to be extremely careful not to cross "the fault line" which pits the so-called secular- nationalists against Islamic groups.

If not dealt with carefully, these conflicts could turn into a political minefield for her. Her government would be surrounded by various groups, all eager to mount an opposition. The opposition would not only come from other political parties, but also from student movements, the press, non-governmental organizations and various social organizations. These groups would exercise tight control over Megawati's regime, and would closely watch her government to ensure it did not waver in implementing reform.

Despite the nationalistic tone of some of her speeches, the economic policies of her party are open-minded and are more or less in line with the current economic mainstream. This is clearly the influence of a number of economists who happen to be members of her inner circle. One of them, Kwik Kian Gie, has spoken about continuing to follow market mechanisms and other investor-friendly policies.

Laksamana Sukardi, another of Megawati's influential advisers, has spoken sympathetically about the need for Indonesia to continue economic reforms under the auspices of the International Monetary Fund. Laksamana, a former executive at Lippo Bank, appreciates the need to achieve a strong macroeconomic base in order for Indonesia to achieve a sustainable economic recovery.

The only PDI Perjuangan program which may cause apprehension among investors is Kwik's proposal to adopt a pegged exchange rate for the rupiah. He has spoken of the need to peg the rupiah at Rp 5,000 against the U.S. dollar. This is a very risky proposal. Kwik should have learned that in a weak macroeconomic environment, pegging the exchange rate amounts to making Bank Indonesia (BI) a sitting duck for speculators and fund managers.

Knowing that BI does not have enough reserves, speculators would begin to surround the central bank, like predators encircling their prey, before they moved in for the kill and forced BI to devalue the rupiah, giving them huge profits. Pegging the exchange rate amid weak macroeconomic fundamentals would create instability, not stability.

Several months will pass before the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) meets to elect the next president. In the meantime, political haggling, bargaining and horse-trading between political parties will dominate the political scene.

Alliances between political parties are now forming and shifting with such frequency that the demarcation line separating reform and status quo parties has blurred. Even the "holy alliance" between Megawati and Gus Dur is in danger and is not immune to cracks amid the intensive political bargaining. Such is the fury of the power struggle prior to the MPR session, no presidential candidate can be assured of victory.

For Megawati, despite her party's seemingly assured victory in the elections, the road to Merdeka Palace will be long and arduous. That is why, for the moment at least, her presidency is not a foregone conclusion.

The writer is an economic columnist and former deputy editor of SWA business magazine.