Megawati-led PDI gets the people's nod

JAKARTA (JP): A recent survey on which party people will vote for shows that a majority of people have yet to make up their minds.

However, those who have decided tend to support the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) led by Megawati Soekarnoputri.

The survey, conducted by the Political Science Lab of the University of Indonesia in association with Soegeng Sarjadi Syndicated, found that nearly 60 percent of the 4,925 respondents either did not know or refused to answer when queried about their choice of party if an election was to be held now.

But 40 percent who did reply said they would vote for the Megawati-led PDI.

Golkar came in a distant second with 12.9 percent, while a future party formed by critic Amien Rais came third with 10.8 percent.

The United Development Party remains a feature with 8.5 percent while the newly formed People's Awakening Party (PKB) established by leading Nadlatul Ulama figures received 1.5 percent.

Of interest is that, according to the survey, the much maligned Soerjadi camp of the PDI actually received a higher percentage, 0.8 percent, of support from respondents than the Indonesian Democratic Union Party (PUDI) led by the high profile Sri Bintang Pamungkas.

The poll, results of which were made public here Saturday, randomly took respondents from Jakarta, Yogyakarta, Surabaya, Banda Aceh, Medan, Kupang, Pontianak, Ujungpandang and Denpasar. However, 52 percent of the respondents live in Jakarta.

A 10th city, Manado, was also surveyed but the results could not be processed due to transportation problems.

The respondents came from a mixture of occupations and backgrounds with three-fourths aged between 17 and 45.

Respondents were asked three topical questions -- the party system, political inclinations and the future of Golkar.

On the first topic respondents were asked: how many parties should contest the election, is the assembling of crowds still necessary and whether they agreed that religion based parties were no longer necessary.

On the first question 58.1 percent chose the highest selection, four to 10 parties, while 31.2 percent said three parties.

An overwhelming majority, 58.4 percent, also said that assembling crowds were necessary to show support for parties.

The poll also showed that 70.1 percent felt that religion based parties were no longer appropriate.

On the second topic, 52.7 percent said their choice of party would be based on its programs. The importance of the party leader or ideology received 17.4 and 10.6 percent respectively.

Another question on this topic was which party they would select if elections were held today.

The third topic on Golkar simply asked whether Golkar was capable of winning the next election.

The response was a resounding "No" from 33.1 percent of respondents.

Some 2 percent said it was "very possible" while another 18.9 percent still believe Golkar "might" win.

Reaction

In a written summation of its findings, the survey warns of potentially large pockets of nonvoters. It points out that 51.9 percent of respondents claim they do not intend to vote in coming elections.

Other cities with a large number of potential nonvoters are Surabaya (27.1 percent) and Denpasar (8.4 percent).

Noted Indonesianist Harold Crouch of the National University in Australia, commenting on the results of the poll said it mainly reflected the opinion of the middle class in urban areas.

He pointed out that the People's Awakening Party would likely get a higher response outside urban areas since its base support, Nahdlatul Ulama members, reside in rural areas.

"I think it would come out different if the poll was in Java's rural areas," he remarked.

Political scientist Maswadi Rauf of the University of Indonesia, said one interesting result for him was the disapproval, 70.1 percent, of religion based parties.

"It is interesting to see that 52 percent of respondents would choose their political parties, not based on traditional or polarizing reasons as was the case in the past, but because of its programs," he remarked.

Soegeng, a former Golkar legislator who switched allegiance to the Soerjadi-led PDI who sponsored the poll, said it was carried out to examine public reaction to the appearance of new political parties.

He pledged to conduct another poll with a wider range of respondents to observe the political climate before the planned special session of People's Consultative Assembly in November.

Last month, the first poll he sponsored was carried out to survey people's opinion of Habibie's three-month government. It showed that Habibie's policies failed to win over the hearts of the people. (rms)