Megawati is taking steps to assume presidency: Chusnul

Megawati is taking steps to assume presidency: Chusnul

Political lecturer Chusnul Mar'iyah shares her views on the
likelihood of the campaign against the President. In the other
interviews below The Jakarta Post also talked to political party
executives on the changed stance of some parties towards Vice
President Megawati Soekarnoputri.

Question: How would you predict the outcome of the current
political struggle, especially Megawati's chance at the
presidency?

Answer: This is not a prediction but an analysis. To judge
Megawati's position and chances we have to define the indicators
for this. The first indicator is of course the memorandum (that
the House of Representatives, DPR) issued to President
Abdurrahman Wahid.

Despite the concept (of the document as a warning) it has led
to the foregone conclusion that there would be a second
memorandum followed by a special convention of the People's
Consultative Assembly (MPR) (meant to remove the president).

That was why even with the memorandum, a campaign to hold an
earlier MPR session continued. That's an indicator of how the
memorandum was not usual, and how bad the relation between the
executive and the DPR was.

Another indicator would be remarks (of the political players,
about an impending succession). For instance, Amien Rais has said
the time was up for Abdurrahman; this was an indicator for a
Megawati presidency and the end of the President's legitimacy.
The legislature's support for him continues to decline.

I really do not know why Abdurrahman, or Gus Dur, claimed that
(DPR Speaker) Akbar Tandjung and (Megawati's husband) Taufik
Kiemas still supported him when Megawati herself has said she did
not support Gus Dur except for the fact that she was the Vice
President.

Q: Why do you think Megawati said that?

A: I think that's a statement (that signifies) Megawati's double
standards in the current political tension. She also said at the
time that everything should be settled between Mas Amien and Gus
Dur. She should not have said that.

What does (the double standard) signify? I think Megawati has
indeed begun to take steps to assume the presidency. The problem
is, we have yet to see how Gus Dur would respond (to the
developments). Politics is not a linear thing, there's always the
X factor. We call it the art of the possible.

Q: And what are the possibilities?

A: Gus Dur may survive this (because) nothing is 100 percent
certain. He may (return from his Middle East trip) and settle
various demands, replace the attorney general, publicly declare
his personal assets and those of his cabinet ministers. He may
appoint a chief justice and start taking (errant) businessmen to
court. These all could save his power if he wanted to.

But let's take a linear look -- the student rallies may get
even bigger and Wahid has to step down. Whatever the scenario,
political realities show that Gus Dur's legitimacy keeps on
declining.

Q: Do you think the President might fight harder to hold on to
his power?

A: Judging from his behavior in the past year, he might. But then
again he might suddenly decide to call the mass media after the
dawn prayer and announce that he is resigning. There's always the
possibility of this option, but this will depend on who
"whispers" (advises) to him.

Q: Are you saying he still relies on his "whisperers"?

A: Very much so. By "whispering" here I mean a contest of
interests (from various people), they could be economic and
business interests and other interest groups wishing to maintain
Gus Dur's presidency.

Q: Is Megawati ready for the presidency now?

A: I will not discuss the question of (her) capacity, but
legitimacy. According to the Constitution, she is the most
legitimate (successor). Didn't the MPR elect the vice president
as well as the president (in the 1999 presidential election)?

As for her capacity, we will have to see how Megawati, who I
believe is a mythical leader, will perform. By maintaining her
silence (over many issues), the public sees her as aloof and
distant. I have met her several times and talked to her ...
anyway, we all must learn.

Take Ronald Reagan -- when he was elected, the American public
thought he was incapable. As it turned out, he was elected twice.
We will have to learn to accept (a president with a limited
capacity) because that is the logical consequence of democracy.

Q: What is a mythical leader?

A: What has Megawati done so far to indicate that she has done
her job? When she visited the refugees of (ethnic conflict
between the Dayaks and the Madurese) in Sampit (Central
Kalimantan), television stations reported that she was there in
her capacity as the chair of the Indonesian Democratic Party of
Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) rather than as the Vice President.

She shouldn't have done this -- she was in charge, after all,
when the President was away.

Why didn't she call an urgent cabinet meeting instead and
decide which ministers should visit the refugees?

(Because she said she was there as party chairwoman) I believe
then the visit was a campaign for her party. That's mythical
leadership -- how would she act as a president later?

Q: Will people surrounding her back her presidency?

A: I don't know but we need to ask what is the extent of
Megawati's relations with military hard-liners, and with the
economic interests of her husband. Those would all become
problems for her later on, and she would have to solve them. I am
at the moment only discussing her legitimacy, but Megawati should
also take care and pay attention to those two elements.

Q: What about the hard-liners?

A: There are at least two things by which we can measure reform,
the first being the absence and "never to return" of
authoritarian rule, while the second is the absence and "never to
return" of the military in politics. Those two are what we should
keep an eye on.

We have all witnessed PDI Perjuangan's refusal of certain
amendments to the constitution. It has also rejected a direct
presidential election, despite the fact that an MPR-elected
president can be impeached at any time.

A direct election will help a president work better and
introduce a better balance between the legislative and executive
branches of power. PDI Perjuangan rejected this mode of
presidential election in the last general election (in 1999).

In addition, PDI Perjuangan was the only party that explicitly
said it was in favor of the military and the police retaining
their (political role) because they served as the "glue of the
nation." Is this stance pro-reform?

I say there is an indication of the closeness between some
military hard-liners and Megawati. (Look at the positions) of
(PDI Perjuangan executives) Jakob Tobing, Theo Syafei. Then we
can see how Megawati relates with Taufik's business interests.
There is a very strong presence of those interests around
Megawati.

Q: What is your comment about the Islamic parties' change in
their stance on a Megawati presidency?

A: Which Islamic parties? During the last annual session of MPR,
I was sitting in the same panel as Zarkasih Nur (a cabinet
minister from United Development Party, or PPP) and he told me
that PPP had issued an edict that accepted a female presidency.

For me, there isn't any problem with this change of position.
In fact, it is progress. It's good. It is probably also the
result of the campaigns (for gender equality) from women's groups
and other pressure groups. Let's view this development
positively.

There is no eternal ally or enemy in politics.

Q: Is Megawati a reformist?

A: There is no measurement with which we can gauge a person's
commitment to reform. If her party is clever, they would respond
to demands for reform, for instance the amendment of the
constitution. (Herry Nurdi)