Megawati is taking steps to assume presidency: Chusnul

Political lecturer Chusnul Mar'iyah shares her views on the likelihood of the campaign against the President. In the other interviews below The Jakarta Post also talked to political party executives on the changed stance of some parties towards Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri.

Question: How would you predict the outcome of the current political struggle, especially Megawati's chance at the presidency?

Answer: This is not a prediction but an analysis. To judge Megawati's position and chances we have to define the indicators for this. The first indicator is of course the memorandum (that the House of Representatives, DPR) issued to President Abdurrahman Wahid.

Despite the concept (of the document as a warning) it has led to the foregone conclusion that there would be a second memorandum followed by a special convention of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) (meant to remove the president).

That was why even with the memorandum, a campaign to hold an earlier MPR session continued. That's an indicator of how the memorandum was not usual, and how bad the relation between the executive and the DPR was.

Another indicator would be remarks (of the political players, about an impending succession). For instance, Amien Rais has said the time was up for Abdurrahman; this was an indicator for a Megawati presidency and the end of the President's legitimacy. The legislature's support for him continues to decline.

I really do not know why Abdurrahman, or Gus Dur, claimed that (DPR Speaker) Akbar Tandjung and (Megawati's husband) Taufik Kiemas still supported him when Megawati herself has said she did not support Gus Dur except for the fact that she was the Vice President.

Q: Why do you think Megawati said that?

A: I think that's a statement (that signifies) Megawati's double standards in the current political tension. She also said at the time that everything should be settled between Mas Amien and Gus Dur. She should not have said that.

What does (the double standard) signify? I think Megawati has indeed begun to take steps to assume the presidency. The problem is, we have yet to see how Gus Dur would respond (to the developments). Politics is not a linear thing, there's always the X factor. We call it the art of the possible.

Q: And what are the possibilities?

A: Gus Dur may survive this (because) nothing is 100 percent certain. He may (return from his Middle East trip) and settle various demands, replace the attorney general, publicly declare his personal assets and those of his cabinet ministers. He may appoint a chief justice and start taking (errant) businessmen to court. These all could save his power if he wanted to.

But let's take a linear look -- the student rallies may get even bigger and Wahid has to step down. Whatever the scenario, political realities show that Gus Dur's legitimacy keeps on declining.

Q: Do you think the President might fight harder to hold on to his power?

A: Judging from his behavior in the past year, he might. But then again he might suddenly decide to call the mass media after the dawn prayer and announce that he is resigning. There's always the possibility of this option, but this will depend on who "whispers" (advises) to him.

Q: Are you saying he still relies on his "whisperers"?

A: Very much so. By "whispering" here I mean a contest of interests (from various people), they could be economic and business interests and other interest groups wishing to maintain Gus Dur's presidency.

Q: Is Megawati ready for the presidency now?

A: I will not discuss the question of (her) capacity, but legitimacy. According to the Constitution, she is the most legitimate (successor). Didn't the MPR elect the vice president as well as the president (in the 1999 presidential election)?

As for her capacity, we will have to see how Megawati, who I believe is a mythical leader, will perform. By maintaining her silence (over many issues), the public sees her as aloof and distant. I have met her several times and talked to her ... anyway, we all must learn.

Take Ronald Reagan -- when he was elected, the American public thought he was incapable. As it turned out, he was elected twice. We will have to learn to accept (a president with a limited capacity) because that is the logical consequence of democracy.

Q: What is a mythical leader?

A: What has Megawati done so far to indicate that she has done her job? When she visited the refugees of (ethnic conflict between the Dayaks and the Madurese) in Sampit (Central Kalimantan), television stations reported that she was there in her capacity as the chair of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) rather than as the Vice President.

She shouldn't have done this -- she was in charge, after all, when the President was away.

Why didn't she call an urgent cabinet meeting instead and decide which ministers should visit the refugees?

(Because she said she was there as party chairwoman) I believe then the visit was a campaign for her party. That's mythical leadership -- how would she act as a president later?

Q: Will people surrounding her back her presidency?

A: I don't know but we need to ask what is the extent of Megawati's relations with military hard-liners, and with the economic interests of her husband. Those would all become problems for her later on, and she would have to solve them. I am at the moment only discussing her legitimacy, but Megawati should also take care and pay attention to those two elements.

Q: What about the hard-liners?

A: There are at least two things by which we can measure reform, the first being the absence and "never to return" of authoritarian rule, while the second is the absence and "never to return" of the military in politics. Those two are what we should keep an eye on.

We have all witnessed PDI Perjuangan's refusal of certain amendments to the constitution. It has also rejected a direct presidential election, despite the fact that an MPR-elected president can be impeached at any time.

A direct election will help a president work better and introduce a better balance between the legislative and executive branches of power. PDI Perjuangan rejected this mode of presidential election in the last general election (in 1999).

In addition, PDI Perjuangan was the only party that explicitly said it was in favor of the military and the police retaining their (political role) because they served as the "glue of the nation." Is this stance pro-reform?

I say there is an indication of the closeness between some military hard-liners and Megawati. (Look at the positions) of (PDI Perjuangan executives) Jakob Tobing, Theo Syafei. Then we can see how Megawati relates with Taufik's business interests. There is a very strong presence of those interests around Megawati.

Q: What is your comment about the Islamic parties' change in their stance on a Megawati presidency?

A: Which Islamic parties? During the last annual session of MPR, I was sitting in the same panel as Zarkasih Nur (a cabinet minister from United Development Party, or PPP) and he told me that PPP had issued an edict that accepted a female presidency.

For me, there isn't any problem with this change of position. In fact, it is progress. It's good. It is probably also the result of the campaigns (for gender equality) from women's groups and other pressure groups. Let's view this development positively.

There is no eternal ally or enemy in politics.

Q: Is Megawati a reformist?

A: There is no measurement with which we can gauge a person's commitment to reform. If her party is clever, they would respond to demands for reform, for instance the amendment of the constitution. (Herry Nurdi)