Megawati could lose PDI-P top job in Bali M. Taufiqurrahman and Kornelius Purba, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

Clearly worried that she could face the same fate as former Golkar leader Akbar Tandjung, Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) leader Megawati Soekarnoputri warned President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's government not to try to oust her from her post at the party's congress next month.

Both Susilo and Vice President Jusuf Kalla -- who replaced Akbar at Golkar's congress in Bali in December -- responded by saying the government had no interest in interfering in PDI-P's congress. However, Megawati still has every reason to worry about the future of her leadership of the nationalist-leaning party.

In Bali last December, just one day after participants of the Golkar congress gave a standing ovation to Akbar for his success in leading Golkar to the position of the country's most powerful political party -- after the PDI-P held the position for five years -- Akbar lost his leadership post to Kalla.

Akbar is a very skillful politician and Kalla is far from being able to match Akbar in this capacity. There are allegations that Kalla, a business tycoon from Makassar, South Sulawesi, was only able to oust Akbar because of his money.

By unseating Akbar, Kalla and the government hoped they would face no significant hurdles in exercising effective governance. Before this, the government only controlled a minority in the House of Representatives.

Although Golkar under Akbar never positioned itself as an opposition to the government, its alliance with the PDI-P, which was forged to support the reelection bid of Megawati in the September runoff presidential election, meant it was likely be a thorn in the government's side. Taken together, PDI-P and Golkar make up the largest political grouping in the House, which has the power to hinder government policies.

Now that Akbar has been relegated to the dustbin of history, Megawati fears the same thing will befall her, especially after senior members of her party -- whose links to the government, if any, remain to be seen -- began aggravating for her removal from the PDI-P leadership post.

It is true that Golkar is different from PDI-P, although both are nationalist-oriented parties. Different from Golkar, which was founded by former president Soeharto, Megawati's party is ideologically inspired by the country's first president, Sukarno, Megawati's father.

PDI-P depends very much on Megawati and she leads the party with an iron fist. In the 1999 general election, three years after Soeharto's fall, her party won the largest number of seats in the House. Her refusal to form a coalition with other parties cost her dearly in the 1999 presidential election. She was only able to land the vice presidential seat, with Abdurrahman Wahid winning the presidency. She replaced Abdurrahman in 2001 following a prolonged conflict between Abdurrahman and the House.

But Megawati is different from Akbar. The Golkar congress participants applauded Akbar for his success in bringing the party close to the "glory" it enjoyed under Soeharto. In the legislative election in April last year, Megawati's party lost considerable ground from its showing in 1999, and in the presidential election Susilo easily defeated her.

Megawati must take the majority of the blame for these setbacks because people were upset with her performance as president.

Businessman-cum-politician Arifin Panigoro spearheaded a movement to reform PDI-P into a modern political party and free it from Megawati's grip.

The presence of Arifin -- an oil baron -- in the movement should serve as a warning to Megawati that she will face a strong contender with "unlimited" resources in the drive to unseat her.

Also joining the movement are top party officials such as Roy B.B. Janis, former state minister for state enterprises Laksamana Sukardi, former minister of national development planning Kwik Kian Gie and party dissident Sophan Sophiaan.

Party members have repeatedly said Megawati's arrogance and aloofness are the party's Achilles heel, and the only thing Megawati brings to the PDI-P is her status as Sukarno's daughter.

However, the Sukarno trump card is unlikely to work this time around.

The movement has in its corner Megawati's younger brother Guruh Soekarnoputri who, albeit reluctantly, has announced his intention to join the March race for leadership of the PDI-P.

Megawati now has few resources at her disposal. She no longer holds public office, the way Akbar did prior to his defeat. Until October last month Akbar was the House speaker.

Her "financier", Laksamana, may have joined her opponents. On the party's central board, she is surrounded by just a handful of faithful officials, like secretary-general Soetjipto and deputy secretary-general Pramono Anung Wibowo and Heri Akhmadi, whose grassroots appeal is questionable.

Megawati will undoubtedly embark on a make-or-break attempt to defend her leadership, but given the tremendous challenges she is facing her days at the PDI-P helm may well be numbered.