Mega's silent maneuvers against Susilo's charm, who will win?

Hanys Salmi, Kuala Lumpur

As of last week, all opinion polls in Jakarta concluded that front-runner Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono would win the runoff election on Sept. 20. Everybody in the impatient, reformist camp holds to the view that Susilo's victory in the first round of the election on July 5 will surely pave the way for him to replace Megawati Soekarnoputri as Indonesia's next president.

Is this a hope, or will it become a fading dream?

One of the factors behind Susilo's victory in the first round of the election was his being regarded as the underdog. His Democratic Party is much smaller than he is. But had he not been considered the underdog, the outcome would have been quite different. It was a derogatory remark by Megawati's husband, Taufik Kiemas, against Susilo, that boosted the former general's popularity and drove a huge number of her supporters to rally behind him.

That episode gave Susilo the kind of emotional mass support that other presidential candidates did not have. From the perspective of mass psychology, Susilo's first-round victory was caused partly by this fortunate episode and partly by his personal charm, which shone through in the absence of such qualities in the other candidates.

As of July 26, when the General Elections Commission endorsed Susilo's first-round victory, he is no longer an underdog. He is perceived to be the winner in the course of completion. This being the case, he could risk losing public sympathy in the run- up to the runoff because one of the characteristics of Indonesian voters is to side with the weaker, the smaller, the most tormented, the underdog -- the very traits that have been wiped away by his first-round victory.

This being the case, Susilo needs to multiply his efforts to switch public perceptions from siding with the underdog to opting for whoever is best suited to the nation's needs. This is easier said than done. This strategy cannot easily be implemented against Megawati's advantage of being the incumbent with a much wider corridor to maneuver through, and a plethora of political vehicles to ride on.

Susilo's first-round victory cannot give him any assurance that he has been the best, because millions of other votes went to the three other candidates who failed to go to the second round, while those who refused to cast their vote may participate in the final round of the contest; their entry may not necessarily be good for Susilo.

Golkar, which will control the majority of seats in the House of Representatives, has seen its central executive board and regional ranks become split, with some leaning toward Jusuf Kalla, who is Susilo's running mate, but party chairman Akbar Tandjung and a host of other top leaders are silently securing big chunks of the pie from Megawati's table.

Likewise, the 40 million-strong Nahdlatul Ulama, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), United Development Party (PPP) and other traditionalist Muslim organizations may eventually feel more comfortable aligning themselves with the nationalist Mega camp unless Susilo can offer them what she cannot.

Muslim parties may not be too willing to be associated with a military figure, given their still-fresh memories of harsh military treatment against them during the Soeharto era.

Intensive lobbying by leaders of Muslim parties and mass organizations last week for a share of the pie in Megawati's luxury buffet suggests that the power constellation in Indonesia is swiftly changing in the incumbent's favor. Susilo needs to consider this new trend very seriously, instead of boasting about his incomplete victory.

Being known as a reformist general is not necessarily good for Susilo, who, "black conglomerate" leaders suspect, would throw them into jail should he achieve power. Such negligent debtors prefer to see a compromise leader sitting in the palace and forgiving them.

Behind the stage of the open political battle, there is a tough "war of the dragons" going on in Jakarta. The boss of the Gemala Group, Sofyan Wanandi, revealed his fears of this in an interview with Kontan tabloid this month -- that "black conglomerates" would support a leader who would not cause them trouble when in power.

On this particular issue, Susilo has yet to match his challenger -- an indication that Indonesian reform is being silently swallowed by the dragons of the old era.

Against these shifts in the Indonesian power constellation, no one should be reckless in assuming that Susilo has a cast-iron guarantee to secure his chances of victory in the runoff contest. It would not be too surprising if in the end he lost the contest, the consequences of which would be unthinkable to Indonesia's procession to democracy.

Regional analysts would not be too worried at the possibility of Megawati losing the game; they surely would, however, if the loser were Susilo, who has been crowned too quickly by public opinion that has ignored the incumbent's silent maneuvers.

The writer works at Kuala Lumpur-based research company. He can be reached at hanyssalmi@malaysia.com