Mayoral race to have big impact

By Edward Neilan

China, U.S., Japan all have stake in outcome of contest between bright young stars Chen and Ma.

TOKYO (JP): In the Taipei mayoral election taking place Saturday between incumbent Chen Shui-bian and former justice minister Ma Ying-jeoh, the winner will be -- Taiwan!

That's not a wishy-washy cop-out, but a fact.

The "loser" may run for president in March 2000. And although both have pledged to serve a full term if victorious in the race for mayor, there is the possibility that they may square off as opponents for the top job now held by the charismatic, Taiwan- born Lee Teng-hui.

Chen and Ma define the Taiwan political scene today.

Chen, 49,is the shining star of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) which is identified with independence for Taiwan. He is Taiwan-born and has traveled to fame as a democrat ironically benefiting from the liberalization carried out by the Kuomintang(KMT), which fled to Taiwan in 1949 under Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek and ruled with an iron hand in the early years.

The sitting mayor would be a shoo-in except for the fact that mainland China, which claims Taiwan is a renegade province, says it will no brook no talk of independence.

In 1996, piqued at President Lee's trip to the United States, China fired missiles near Taiwan to prove who is in charge. Another round of Chinese tests -- this time employing advanced missiles -- has been predicted to begin before the end of this year, perhaps before the end of this week

Ma, 48, is among the brightest of second-generation mainlanders who comprise 20 percent of Taiwan's 21.4 million population.

If Ma wins, the mainlanders and the KMT will have new life. If he loses, it may be the bun-in-China-group's swan song.

"And if Chen wins," a Western diplomat noted wryly, "the United States will be forced to get a China policy."

His sour assessment was because the U.S., which cultivated Taiwan democracy every step of the way, seems to be tempering support of Taiwan in return for the lucrative payoff of commercial ties with "big China," still ruled by Communists.

Of the two candidates, I am better acquainted with Ma, my sentimental favorite in Saturday's vote. Fresh from a Harvard Ph.D, he was the interpreter when I interviewed former President Chiang Ching-kuo (son of Chiang Kai-shek) in Taipei's Japanese- built executive mansion in 1983.

Chiang spoke of the reforms he was to implement in coming years, including hand-picking people like Lee, Ma, Lien Chan, James Soong, Fred Chien, Jason Hu, Vincent Siew, and John Chang to lead the KMT through transition years.

Ma has a lot going for him in the talent and charisma departments. He won respect bucking the KMT old guard as a crime- busting Minister of Justice and so the role as balancer may overcome his deficit of being born in Hong Kong of mainland parents.

I have known Chen for only a few years but there is no doubt in my mind that he would be able to handle pressures from the mainland and from the U.S. if he wins Saturday, wins the presidency in 2000 and asserts his drive for independence.

"We are already independent, hasn't anybody noticed," he asked rhetorically on his last visit to Tokyo. Chen told me he favored a referendum eventually to determine the wishes of Taiwan's people.

Chen's blind side is that he doesn't have people with experience and political savvy around him. This lack, caused by the KMT's prolonged grip on power, is understandable, but a major flaw which only time can correct.

Taiwan has a lot of residual support in Japan as China's President Jiang Zemin found out last week. Japan's refusal to pledge a "three nos" position on Taiwan, as the U.S. had done obsequiously, was a bright spot for Japanese diplomacy which had been criticized as a mere follower of U.S. moves.

The out-of-protocol presence of former foreign minister Qian Qichen, now "Special Adviser on Taiwan Policy," sitting next to Jiang throughout the Japan visit was intriguing to analysts.

It either underscores the importance Beijing attaches to the Taiwan issue, which we already knew, or suggests Jiang may be in political trouble at home, which we didn't know.

The writer is a veteran analyst of Northeast Asian affairs and Media Fellow at Hoover Institution, Stanford University. In 1996 he was WangTi-wu Chair Visiting Professor of Journalism, National Chengchi University, Taipei.