Market analysts skeptical about government bonds
Market analysts skeptical about government bonds
JAKARTA (JP): The Rp 103.83 trillion (US$12.82 billion) worth
of government bonds issued last week are unlikely to receive a
good response from foreign investors when they are launched in
the secondary market next year, according to local analysts.
Alferno Sunardji, head of the fixed-income division at PT
Sigma Batara Securities, said on Monday foreign investors would
remain reluctant to invest in rupiah-based bonds because of
anticipated volatility in the currency, particularly in view of
continuing political and social uncertainties.
"Unless there's a significant positive development in the
social and political condition, only a limited amount of the
bonds will be absorbed by the market," he told The Jakarta Post
On Friday the government announced the flotation of bonds
worth Rp 103.83 trillion to recapitalize 11 private banks and 12
provincial development banks.
The bonds carry two types of interest rates.
The floating-rate bonds worth Rp 95.15 trillion have an
interest rate linked to Bank Indonesia's 3-month SBI promissory
note rates, payable on a quarterly basis, and with a maturity
period of between three to 10 years.
The fixed-rate bonds worth Rp 8.68 trillion, with a maturity
period of five years and 10 years, carry fixed interest rates of
12 percent and 14 percent respectively.
The bonds will be registered on the banks' balance sheet as
government equity shares to lift their capital adequacy ratio
(CAR) to the minimum 4 percent level for the private banks, and
to the 8 percent level for the development banks.
CAR is the ratio between capital and risk-weighted assets.
The government will allow the bonds to be traded in the
secondary market at the start of 2000 after all preparations are
completed, particularly those relating to Y2K compliance.
Alferno considered foreign investors as the only potential
buyers of the bonds, because local investors no longer had
sufficient funds to make the investment.
"Liquidity is quite tight among local investors. A daily
turnover of Rp 50 billion in current corporate bond issues is
already considered big enough."
Alferno added that foreign investor enthusiasm for the bonds
would depend on political and social stability in the country.
President of securities firm PT Tri Megah Securindo Lestari
David Chang concurred.
"Foreign investors are currently only looking at U.S. dollar-
based bonds because they're still uncomfortable with the rupiah,"
he said, adding that investors could remain edgy over the next
six to 12 months.
But he disagreed with Alferno's pessimism about local
investors.
"There will be a strong demand from local investors,
particularly from pension funds, because the instruments are
state bonds."
Laksono Widodo, head of research at ING Baring Securities,
said the coupon rate of the bonds should have been set at a
premium to the 3-month SBI note rate, due to Indonesia's high
country risk.
He said Indonesia's country risk would remain very high until
next year.
"There's a strong likelihood that the banks won't sell the
bonds into the secondary market early next year," he said, adding
that a lively secondary market might only return in two years
time.
Indonesia has been mired in political infighting and social
unrest since the downfall of former strongman Soeharto in May
last year when the economic crisis heightened.
Riots have occurred in several parts of the country ahead of
the upcoming June 7 general election, the country's first open
and multi-party election after more than 30 years under the
authoritarian rule of Soeharto.
Although many analysts welcome the government bonds issue as a
positive step for the bank recapitalization program, some have
been discouraged by the slow progress made in efforts to recover
massive non-performing bank loans, the bulk of which are owed by
well-connected businessmen.
Analysts say the bank recapitalization program and corporate
restructuring are essential for the economy to recover from the
crisis. (rei)