Mapping tomorrow's political horizon

Stability has always been the catchword in the development process, especially now, with the general election around the corner. But Cornelis Lay says the bureaucratic elite is playing with fire in their attempt to preserve power.

YOGYAKARTA (JP): Estimations on Indonesia's economic profile in the next century have been much talked about. A market economy and globalization are clear indicators, as the country sails toward tomorrow's waters.

On the political front, however, the picture is dim.

By its nature, one would grapple with numerous components when trying to comprehend Indonesia's politics. They consist of the military, bureaucracy, presidential institution, culture, ethnicity and locality, religion, social classes, capital and others.

A debate on the topic of the preservation of power, for instance, would bring one to the ideas of authoritarian bureaucracy, bureaucratic policy or state corporatism. A debate on issues relating to questionable government practices would lead one to ideas of neo-patrimonialism, state capitalism or rent-seeking.

This is so because the Armed Forces, the bureaucracy, the presidential institution and the President, for instance, are the innate power centers. Religion, ethnicity, locality and social classes will always be pivotal elements in domestic politics. However, outside these "traditional" elements, the face of Indonesia's politics tomorrow is becoming bizarre, with the arrival of a new political breed that will be playing a leading role in the system.

This arrival, which could be likened to a "caste" in India, is evident from recent political phenomena like the furor over the nominations for the new members of the House of Representatives and the leadership rifts befalling political organizations, including youth organizations. Wrangling over who should become new members of the House has even plagued the dominant Golkar political grouping.

These symptoms bode well what the nation's future political profile will look like. The new breed's aggressive moves in justifying themselves as the true "political blue bloods" can be recognized in all these symptoms. They are the offsprings of officials, civilians and the military who made an inroad into the power structure. This kick-starts the ongoing regeneration process of the new political "caste".

However, unlike their forebears, who won legitimation through history and their services to the state, this new breed is combining the traditional legitimation mode of heredity (reflected in the setting up of various artificial organizations) and a more modern legitimation, such as the middle class.

In the 1980s, this breed consolidated its business base on a gigantic scale under the state's patronage as a preparation to enter politics. This consolidation does not follow an individual pattern, but a collective infrastructure, through the creation of a number of institutions. Within these organizations, the breed's predecessors disseminate various political experiences to their youngsters to be tried out in other institutional environments.

The trend, which is being replicated nationwide, did not come about by accident. Therefore, it can't be dismissed simply as an individual phenomenon of nepotism with a classic objective: to acquire as much profit as possible. Offsprings of regents and governors throughout the country, with full support from their parents, are invading business territories. It would be grossly irresponsible to perceive this trend as merely an "exception". A popular term in Indonesian political jargon, oknum (individual, as opposed to institution), often exploited to cover up bureaucratic mischief, becomes an irrelevant excuse here.

Propelled by their effective networking and enormous economic power, this new political caste zeroed in on strategic political positions. This process transformed them into a formidable political force, which is highly reckoned with by the power holders. Gradually, a disguised "ration" of key political positions for the new caste took a more pronounced shape in the political system. Rumors have it that the recent nomination process for members of the House has "abided by" these new "guidelines".

As in the previous era of business consolidation, the consolidation of the new breed in politics has also spread to many segments and regional levels. The political consolidation also can not be regarded as an individual trend. It is a class consolidation gearing up to reproduce a new political caste. This is a highly innovative attempt to preserve power, but it harbors hazards for the nation in the future.

Unfortunately, this phenomenon -- which manifested itself as a "re-feudalization" process in Indonesian politics -- has logical arguments that could be justified through democratic principles.

Seen from the middle class perspective, the new breed can easily claim to be a part of it. From the manner in which it is evolving, it is obvious that they depend on power to carry out the process of piling up their wealth to reproduce power. And the cycle of power to wealth rolls on. The new breed also found that they have the "family" which binds everything as their center.

This phenomenon is heavily laden with risks. Traditional elements which were once used to gauge the political climate will lose their relevance, and political turmoil will follow. It is not impossible for this to happen in the next century.

Or the traditional political values may come into collusion with those of the new political breed. Thus, we are in for an intricate marriage between religiosity, ethnicity, social and economic classes, heredity and others on the Indonesian political stage.

Alas, the ascent of the new breed on the pillars of the "sanctity of blood" and political acumen of the elder breed has an inherent weakness. It cracks easily, even due to trivial reasons. Hence, this kind of political setup is pregnant with conflicts.

The "dynasties" they established collectively are susceptible to clashes, the symptoms of which have begun to waft into the media. And they could slip into politics later on. Unfortunately, we still lack experience in dealing with this issue. Even conventional political conflicts, such as the one involving the Indonesian Democratic Party, seem to be too complicated for us.

The writer is a lecturer of political science at the Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta.