Mapping tomorrow's political horizon

Mapping tomorrow's political horizon

Stability has always been the catchword in the development
process, especially now, with the general election around the
corner. But Cornelis Lay says the bureaucratic elite is playing
with fire in their attempt to preserve power.

YOGYAKARTA (JP): Estimations on Indonesia's economic profile
in the next century have been much talked about. A market economy
and globalization are clear indicators, as the country sails
toward tomorrow's waters.

On the political front, however, the picture is dim.

By its nature, one would grapple with numerous components when
trying to comprehend Indonesia's politics. They consist of the
military, bureaucracy, presidential institution, culture,
ethnicity and locality, religion, social classes, capital and
others.

A debate on the topic of the preservation of power, for
instance, would bring one to the ideas of authoritarian
bureaucracy, bureaucratic policy or state corporatism. A debate
on issues relating to questionable government practices would
lead one to ideas of neo-patrimonialism, state capitalism or
rent-seeking.

This is so because the Armed Forces, the bureaucracy, the
presidential institution and the President, for instance, are the
innate power centers. Religion, ethnicity, locality and social
classes will always be pivotal elements in domestic politics.
However, outside these "traditional" elements, the face of
Indonesia's politics tomorrow is becoming bizarre, with the
arrival of a new political breed that will be playing a leading
role in the system.

This arrival, which could be likened to a "caste" in India, is
evident from recent political phenomena like the furor over the
nominations for the new members of the House of Representatives
and the leadership rifts befalling political organizations,
including youth organizations. Wrangling over who should become
new members of the House has even plagued the dominant Golkar
political grouping.

These symptoms bode well what the nation's future political
profile will look like. The new breed's aggressive moves in
justifying themselves as the true "political blue bloods" can be
recognized in all these symptoms. They are the offsprings of
officials, civilians and the military who made an inroad into the
power structure. This kick-starts the ongoing regeneration
process of the new political "caste".

However, unlike their forebears, who won legitimation through
history and their services to the state, this new breed is
combining the traditional legitimation mode of heredity
(reflected in the setting up of various artificial organizations)
and a more modern legitimation, such as the middle class.

In the 1980s, this breed consolidated its business base on a
gigantic scale under the state's patronage as a preparation to
enter politics. This consolidation does not follow an individual
pattern, but a collective infrastructure, through the creation of
a number of institutions. Within these organizations, the breed's
predecessors disseminate various political experiences to their
youngsters to be tried out in other institutional environments.

The trend, which is being replicated nationwide, did not come
about by accident. Therefore, it can't be dismissed simply as an
individual phenomenon of nepotism with a classic objective: to
acquire as much profit as possible. Offsprings of regents and
governors throughout the country, with full support from their
parents, are invading business territories. It would be grossly
irresponsible to perceive this trend as merely an "exception". A
popular term in Indonesian political jargon, oknum (individual,
as opposed to institution), often exploited to cover up
bureaucratic mischief, becomes an irrelevant excuse here.

Propelled by their effective networking and enormous economic
power, this new political caste zeroed in on strategic political
positions. This process transformed them into a formidable
political force, which is highly reckoned with by the power
holders. Gradually, a disguised "ration" of key political
positions for the new caste took a more pronounced shape in the
political system. Rumors have it that the recent nomination
process for members of the House has "abided by" these new
"guidelines".

As in the previous era of business consolidation, the
consolidation of the new breed in politics has also spread to
many segments and regional levels. The political consolidation
also can not be regarded as an individual trend. It is a class
consolidation gearing up to reproduce a new political caste. This
is a highly innovative attempt to preserve power, but it harbors
hazards for the nation in the future.

Unfortunately, this phenomenon -- which manifested itself as a
"re-feudalization" process in Indonesian politics -- has logical
arguments that could be justified through democratic principles.

Seen from the middle class perspective, the new breed can
easily claim to be a part of it. From the manner in which it is
evolving, it is obvious that they depend on power to carry out
the process of piling up their wealth to reproduce power. And the
cycle of power to wealth rolls on. The new breed also found that
they have the "family" which binds everything as their center.

This phenomenon is heavily laden with risks. Traditional
elements which were once used to gauge the political climate will
lose their relevance, and political turmoil will follow. It is
not impossible for this to happen in the next century.

Or the traditional political values may come into collusion
with those of the new political breed. Thus, we are in for an
intricate marriage between religiosity, ethnicity, social and
economic classes, heredity and others on the Indonesian political
stage.

Alas, the ascent of the new breed on the pillars of the
"sanctity of blood" and political acumen of the elder breed has
an inherent weakness. It cracks easily, even due to trivial
reasons. Hence, this kind of political setup is pregnant with
conflicts.

The "dynasties" they established collectively are susceptible
to clashes, the symptoms of which have begun to waft into the
media. And they could slip into politics later on. Unfortunately,
we still lack experience in dealing with this issue. Even
conventional political conflicts, such as the one involving the
Indonesian Democratic Party, seem to be too complicated for us.

The writer is a lecturer of political science at the Gadjah
Mada University, Yogyakarta.