Mapping party strengths in West Java

By M.M.I. Ahyani

BANDUNG (JP): Which of the 48 parties vying for the support of 25 million voters in West Java is most likely to win the biggest chunk of the 82 House of Representatives (DPR) seats allotted to the province?

Goeswin Agus, chairman of the evaluation and information commission of the West Java provincial elections committee, said recently that judging from the parties' level of preparedness, only Golkar had cadres in even the most remote villages.

"The West Java provincial elections committee is facing difficulties placing officials at voting booths, because (there are more Golkar cadres) than those of other parties," he said.

The presence of Golkar in the farthest corners of the country can no doubt be attributed to the extensive role of the former bureaucracy. One needs to remember that in those areas, villagers still treat the words of the often coopted Golkar village chiefs as gospel.

B. Suryawikarta, a lecturer at Padjadjaran University's School of Sociopolitical Sciences and at Bandung Institute of Technology, supported Goeswin's evaluation.

"In my calculations, Golkar still has the strength to obtain 25 percent of the DPR seats in West Java," he said. Suryawikarta also said that peripheral urban and rural areas were dominated by Golkar.

Suryawikarta said had Golkar not seen the defection of some senior party figures -- who went on to establish the Justice and Unity Party (PKP) and the MKGR Party -- it would have been able to obtain 40 percent of the vote.

The 1955 general election indicated the dominant political party in West Java was Masyumi (Majelis Syuro Muslimin Indonesia). Its stronghold was in Banten and Cirebon regencies, and from the regencies of Bogor and Purwakarta to the Priangan regency.

Moreover, in West Java there was an extensive spread of pesantren (Islamic boarding schools), the power base of Indonesia's largest Muslim organization Nahdlatul Ulama (NU).

"It is usually like that. Wherever NU grows, it is balanced by the growth of Muhammadiyah and Persis," said Suryawikarta.

The three Islamic organizations -- NU, Muhammadiyah and Persis -- are in his opinion the foundations of the Islamic political parties in Indonesia. The Indonesian Syarikat Islam Party (PSII) and the Tarbiyah Islamiyah Association (PERTI) -- which also became political parties in the 1950s -- were less well known.

"In the 1955 general election the number of Islamic political parties was relatively small. But in this year's elections, their number is extraordinary," he said.

There are already three versions of Masyumi, four versions of NU, the United Development Party (PPP) and other parties which adhere to Islamic teachings, as well as those which do not explicitly call themselves Islamic parties, but use Islamic symbols.

Suryawikarta added that nearly all Islamic political parties in this year's general election have their raison d'etre in West Java.

"It can be expected that 45 percent of the 82 seats at the DPR for West Java will go to Islamic parties," he said.

There appears to be an awareness of the need to cooperate among the Islamic parties. Twelve Islamic political parties signed a vote-sharing agreement in West Java last week. They are the PPP, the Crescent Star Party (PBB), the Justice Party (PK), the Islamic Community Party (PUI), the Muslim Community Awakening Party (PKU), PPII, Masyumi, the Indonesian Syarikat Islam Party (PSII), the Nahdlatul Ummat Party (PNU), the Indonesian Muslim Awakening Party (KAMI), the New Masyumi Party and the Indonesian Syarikat Islam Party-1905 (PSII-1905).

In Suryawikarta's opinion, the Indonesian Democratic Party for Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) will obtain a maximum of 20 percent of the vote from urban and peripheral areas.

Suryawikarta believes that in regions where religion plays a strong part, like old Banten regency and Cirebon regency, Islamic parties will obtain a fairly large number of seats. But these gains will be balanced by an increase in the votes obtained by socialist and nationalist parties. These parties will indeed obtain a greater number of votes, in line with the spread of urban areas.

TB Kun Maulawarman of the Institute for the Study of Policy Problems in Bandung, said in a survey conducted by the organization, only Golkar, PPP, PDI Perjuangan and the National Mandate Party (PAN) would win more than 10 percent of the vote in West Java.

Other big parties, such as the National Awakening Party (PKB), the Crescent Star Party (PBB) and the Justice Party, would obtain between 1 percent and 10 percent of the votes, Kun said.

"Although Golkar will still obtain more than 10 percent of the votes, the number will decrease mainly in urban areas."

Map of conflicts

According to estimates of areas of possible conflict in West Java, the region along the north coast and the former Banten regency would see many riots. However, two rounds of election campaigns have shown that the security of these regions is well under control.

A rather serious crime occurred recently in Serang. Pro-Golkar Banten sword masters attacked a group of PDI Perjuangan supporters. Work is needed to check further disturbances.

Col. Wahyuddin of the West Java police said police had so far only been able to prevent acts of violence.

"We are facing crowds that cannot think rationally, so the police have not taken any strict measures. However, our personnel have taken direct steps against crimes in the field," he said.

So far, violations during the campaigns have mostly been for traffic offenses.

Col. Wahyuddin said police safeguarding of the general election was a lengthy process. The post-election period, when the process of ballot counting and seat allocations takes place, is also a stage that will need safeguarding.

Goeswin Agus agreed with the security prognosis.

"Even during production of the list of legislative candidates, several acts of violence and threats took place. They were directed against the members of the board of political parties, as well as officials of the Provincial Elections Committee," he said.

"So far, people have been patient. We must understand that, because the people are currently in the process of learning democracy," said the professor from the School of Mathematics at the Bandung Institute of Technology.