Mapping party strengths in West Java

Mapping party strengths in West Java

By M.M.I. Ahyani

BANDUNG (JP): Which of the 48 parties vying for the support of
25 million voters in West Java is most likely to win the biggest
chunk of the 82 House of Representatives (DPR) seats allotted to
the province?

Goeswin Agus, chairman of the evaluation and information
commission of the West Java provincial elections committee, said
recently that judging from the parties' level of preparedness,
only Golkar had cadres in even the most remote villages.

"The West Java provincial elections committee is facing
difficulties placing officials at voting booths, because (there
are more Golkar cadres) than those of other parties," he said.

The presence of Golkar in the farthest corners of the country
can no doubt be attributed to the extensive role of the former
bureaucracy. One needs to remember that in those areas, villagers
still treat the words of the often coopted Golkar village chiefs
as gospel.

B. Suryawikarta, a lecturer at Padjadjaran University's School
of Sociopolitical Sciences and at Bandung Institute of
Technology, supported Goeswin's evaluation.

"In my calculations, Golkar still has the strength to obtain
25 percent of the DPR seats in West Java," he said. Suryawikarta
also said that peripheral urban and rural areas were dominated by
Golkar.

Suryawikarta said had Golkar not seen the defection of some
senior party figures -- who went on to establish the Justice and
Unity Party (PKP) and the MKGR Party -- it would have been able
to obtain 40 percent of the vote.

The 1955 general election indicated the dominant political
party in West Java was Masyumi (Majelis Syuro Muslimin
Indonesia). Its stronghold was in Banten and Cirebon regencies,
and from the regencies of Bogor and Purwakarta to the Priangan
regency.

Moreover, in West Java there was an extensive spread of
pesantren (Islamic boarding schools), the power base of
Indonesia's largest Muslim organization Nahdlatul Ulama (NU).

"It is usually like that. Wherever NU grows, it is balanced by
the growth of Muhammadiyah and Persis," said Suryawikarta.

The three Islamic organizations -- NU, Muhammadiyah and Persis
-- are in his opinion the foundations of the Islamic political
parties in Indonesia. The Indonesian Syarikat Islam Party (PSII)
and the Tarbiyah Islamiyah Association (PERTI) -- which also
became political parties in the 1950s -- were less well known.

"In the 1955 general election the number of Islamic political
parties was relatively small. But in this year's elections, their
number is extraordinary," he said.

There are already three versions of Masyumi, four versions of
NU, the United Development Party (PPP) and other parties which
adhere to Islamic teachings, as well as those which do not
explicitly call themselves Islamic parties, but use Islamic
symbols.

Suryawikarta added that nearly all Islamic political parties
in this year's general election have their raison d'etre in West
Java.

"It can be expected that 45 percent of the 82 seats at the DPR
for West Java will go to Islamic parties," he said.

There appears to be an awareness of the need to cooperate
among the Islamic parties. Twelve Islamic political parties
signed a vote-sharing agreement in West Java last week. They are
the PPP, the Crescent Star Party (PBB), the Justice Party (PK),
the Islamic Community Party (PUI), the Muslim Community Awakening
Party (PKU), PPII, Masyumi, the Indonesian Syarikat Islam Party
(PSII), the Nahdlatul Ummat Party (PNU), the Indonesian Muslim
Awakening Party (KAMI), the New Masyumi Party and the Indonesian
Syarikat Islam Party-1905 (PSII-1905).

In Suryawikarta's opinion, the Indonesian Democratic Party for
Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) will obtain a maximum of 20 percent of
the vote from urban and peripheral areas.

Suryawikarta believes that in regions where religion plays a
strong part, like old Banten regency and Cirebon regency, Islamic
parties will obtain a fairly large number of seats. But these
gains will be balanced by an increase in the votes obtained by
socialist and nationalist parties. These parties will indeed
obtain a greater number of votes, in line with the spread of
urban areas.

TB Kun Maulawarman of the Institute for the Study of Policy
Problems in Bandung, said in a survey conducted by the
organization, only Golkar, PPP, PDI Perjuangan and the National
Mandate Party (PAN) would win more than 10 percent of the vote in
West Java.

Other big parties, such as the National Awakening Party (PKB),
the Crescent Star Party (PBB) and the Justice Party, would obtain
between 1 percent and 10 percent of the votes, Kun said.

"Although Golkar will still obtain more than 10 percent of the
votes, the number will decrease mainly in urban areas."

Map of conflicts

According to estimates of areas of possible conflict in West
Java, the region along the north coast and the former Banten
regency would see many riots. However, two rounds of election
campaigns have shown that the security of these regions is well
under control.

A rather serious crime occurred recently in Serang. Pro-Golkar
Banten sword masters attacked a group of PDI Perjuangan
supporters. Work is needed to check further disturbances.

Col. Wahyuddin of the West Java police said police had so far
only been able to prevent acts of violence.

"We are facing crowds that cannot think rationally, so the
police have not taken any strict measures. However, our personnel
have taken direct steps against crimes in the field," he said.

So far, violations during the campaigns have mostly been for
traffic offenses.

Col. Wahyuddin said police safeguarding of the general
election was a lengthy process. The post-election period, when
the process of ballot counting and seat allocations takes place,
is also a stage that will need safeguarding.

Goeswin Agus agreed with the security prognosis.

"Even during production of the list of legislative candidates,
several acts of violence and threats took place. They were
directed against the members of the board of political parties,
as well as officials of the Provincial Elections Committee," he
said.

"So far, people have been patient. We must understand that,
because the people are currently in the process of learning
democracy," said the professor from the School of Mathematics at
the Bandung Institute of Technology.