Many problems ahead for Afghan people

Yoichi Funabashi, Senior Staff Writer, Asahi Shimbun

The first snow of the season fell on Mazar-i-Sharif in northern Afghanistan on Dec. 3.

The New York Times carried a photo of snow falling on a cluster of tents at a nearby refugee camp. People who sought refuge there lost their homes in a fierce battle between the Northern Alliance and the Taliban over this area of strategic importance. The photo showed a man stooping by a small tent as high as his shoulders. The tent is his home where he spends the night.

More than 30 years ago, writer Yasushi Inoue wrote about the intense winter in this area. Inoue's party left Kunduz, a border town near Amu Darya, and drove through the rugged open terrain toward Mazar-i-Sharif at night:

"Flocks of sheep are constantly moving in the dark beside the road. Sometimes, they are replaced by a caravan of camels. Flocks of animals seen through the headlights appear sad. People who walk between them are sadder.

"Nomads in the northern region started moving south all at once with the approach of winter. Their destination, I hear, is Pakistan." -- from Yubokumin (Nomads).

Still, the nomads were probably better off than the refugees of the present time, who have nowhere to go.

The Taliban regime collapsed. The war between the United States and al-Qaeda is nearing an end. At last, the different Afghan groups are set to form a provisional government under UN pressure.

Countries are sending advance parties to the Afghan capital of Kabul one after another to reopen their embassies. A day after the Northern Alliance occupied Kabul, an Iranian mission arrived at the former embassy, which was left to ruin, to resume operations. Russia, India and Turkey followed suit.

In Russia's case, it came back after a blank of more than 10 years since the Soviets withdrew from Afghanistan. Now, the complex has turned into a shelter for thousands of refugees. Later, Britain, France and Japan dispatched advance parties. Afghanistan is preparing to open up to international society once again.

A mountain of problems lies ahead: Establishment of peace and order, humanitarian relief, repatriation of refugees, establishment of a full-fledged government, implementation of elections, economic reconstruction, to name a few.

Rebuilding a failed state will be an expensive undertaking. Unlike Cambodia, Kosovo and East Timor, Afghanistan has a huge population of 25 million.

Removal of land mines alone is expected to cost US$500 million (62 billion yen). One estimate shows that the entire rebuilding of Afghanistan could cost as much as $25 billion.

But the important thing is not the amount of aid. Even if the international society could put up such a huge amount, unless the Afghan government has the ability to digest and absorb it, the money would only provide a hotbed of corruption. It would only change the economic disposition of this country from dependence on drugs to dependence on foreign aid.

In Kunduz, Inoue wrote: "There are many carpet stores in this town but they are all deserted. They are waiting for a single foreign tourist to come in a day. The whole town is waiting for the game to be caught in a trap it set to catch." -- from Kunduz- no Machi (The Town of Kunduz).

Nation-building is not something the whole town can accomplish with commercial activities at the local bazaar. It is a painstaking undertaking that involves the establishment of a government, development of education, public health, agriculture and industries, and security of human rights to build a nation and its people.

"From the battlefield to the market" was the slogan for Cambodian reconstruction. However, later, problems of foreign aid and development which only benefited urban areas and the market also became clear. Greater importance must be attached to poor rural communities to build such infrastructure as roads, schools and hospitals.

When we think about the seemingly insurmountable difficulties involved in Afghan nation-building, we tend to be seized with pessimism. Some Afghan experts say that Afghanistan would be more stable if it were to be divided into a number of countries by ethnic group or region. They say Afghanistan should follow the example of Bosnia, where the situation has been brought to a settlement by division among different ethnic groups.

But in Afghanistan's case, it would only bring back anarchy and trigger civil war again. The absence of a core will give rise to vacuum of power and encourage military intervention by such neighboring countries as Pakistan and Iran.

For the first time in Afghan modern history, the country is given the greatest opportunity for nation-building. It is important that international society extend a helping hand to the Afghan people to seize this opportunity.

Where is the man in the photograph today? Where is his family? I wonder if it is snowing in the refugee camp in Mazar-i-Sharif today.