Managing the Asia-Pacific quadrangle
The sixth informal annual workshop on Managing Potential Conflicts in the South China Sea is scheduled to open in the East Kalimantan city of Balikpapan today. Noted political scientist Juwono Sudarsono looks at the issue from a geo-political perspective.
JAKARTA (JP): China, Russia, Japan and the United States constitute the evolving strategic balance in the Asia-Pacific region. Within this political, economic and military nexus lies the most promising post-Cold War economic phenomenon as well as the most intractable remnant of Cold War rivalry.
More than 40 percent of the world's trade is conducted in and through the region. Intra-Pacific trade increases by 15 percent annually. At the same time, the Oct. 23, 1994, Agreed Framework on Korea attests to the reality that the overall politico- security dimension has a direct bearing on the region's future growth.
The importance of the strategic quadrangle is only partially reflected by the current assessments being undertaken by the four major powers. The United States and Russia continue to cooperate in joint conventional military exercises as part of confidence and security-building measures in the post-Cold War era. Confidence-building between the two major nuclear powers constitutes an important follow-through to the strategic arms reduction agreement reached five years ago.
On the other hand, the Asia-Pacific region is gearing up to the gradual but perceptible rise in the political and military importance of Japan and China. A delicate balance of interests is evolving within the strategic quadrangle as these two Asian powers reposition themselves to an increasingly Asian-centered security environment. The new environments in Northeast Asia and the South China Sea will be profoundly affected by the reassessment of the major powers' strategic intent, particularly with regard to maritime policy and naval strategy.
For Russia and United States, the main concern centers on adjusting strategy from one that was aimed at naval engagement based on global competition in the high seas to one that focuses on coastal, near-shore and littoral region conflicts. For their part, Japan and China are aiming to enhance their political and military influence through increased force modernization and naval capability to move beyond coastal defense.
These moves are made more acute by competition for sea-based resources and burgeoning off-shore markets across the Asia Pacific economies. China's continued participation in the current (Oct. 10-13) Balikpapan workshop on managing conflict in the South China Sea is a welcome indication of its commitment to explore solutions based on broad agreements of "rules of the road" as stipulated in the 1982 Law of the Sea rather than on unilateral claims of territorial jurisdiction.
The workshop on the South China Sea, though not a negotiating forum, remains of considerable importance. It reaffirms the viability of an informal intra-Pacific dialog, which, by chance, complements the defused situation in Northeast Asia arising from the implementation of the Agreed Framework on Korea.
The rapid rise in intra-Asia-Pacific trade and investments has underscored the importance of seaborne commerce and its implications on naval strategy, tactics and the procurement of weapons systems. Worldwide, maritime commerce accounts for over 80 percent of trade among nations, exceeding 3.6 billion tons a year. Fishing is likewise concentrated in coastal waters and reached 100 million metric tons in 1992-93. The creation of 200-mile exclusive economic zones has not been accompanied by increased attention to the depletion of fishstocks and damage to the environment.
Given the renewed attention to contemporary ocean issues arising from competition for energy resources and market access, it would be appropriate for an Asia-Pacific multilateral advisory committee to be drawn from all sectors of the ocean industry. This would include representatives from coastal and distant-water fishing, processing industries, off-shore oil and gas interests, the shipping industry and the maritime science community, all of whom would map out further guidelines and possible benchmarks.
The ASEAN states can play an important role in testing such informal devices which might, depending on the circumstances, later be transformed into a full-fledged negotiating forum on joint authority exploration.
The United States, Russia, Japan and China must commit themselves to a broader array of intersecting peacetime roles: strategic presence, sea control, crisis response, sea-lift capability and counter-narcotics operations. The United States' willingness to secure Japan's economic lifeline is a positive indication that common objectives could be achieved through the recognition of a strategic agreement among all the powers concerned.
Adherence to the Law of the Sea framework is but one step in the continuous effort to manage political, economic and security arrangements affecting the delicate but crucial strategic quadrangle among the major powers.
The writer is Vice Governor of Lemhannas, the National Resilience Institute, Jakarta.