Managing our growing population

Managing our growing population

One of the estimated 8,128 babies born yesterday (Tuesday)
will be officially declared Indonesia's 200 millionth citizen.
However, the presence of our 200 millionth citizen is not an
unconditional blessing. It alerts us to a possible coming
population explosion plus all the ecological and social
implications which it brings.

At present, Indonesia has about 194 million hectares of arable
land. If the acreage of tracts reserved for environmental
protection and conservation purposes is subtracted from this
total, 111 million hectares will remain for habitation and
cultivation. This is the total acreage of land available to
support our 200 million people. The problem gets worse when we
take the ecological carrying capacity of these lands into
account. At present, this capacity has already been surpassed on
the island of Java and in a number of areas on the island of
Sumatra.

At present, the water supply on Java, as well as in a number
of other areas in Indonesia, is already insufficient to meet the
needs of the agricultural industry. At the time we became self-
sufficient in rice 13 years ago, 98 percent of the surface water
available on Java was used for agriculture and only 2 percent to
supply clean waterbto cities and meet other nonagricultural
needs. Now, the inadequate water supply threatens the capability
of the land to maintain adequate food reserves for our 200
million people.

The issue becomes crucial when the relevant social variables
are taken into account. A population explosion calls for an
increasingly efficient system of social and space management,
otherwise rising unemployment, growing crime and severe housing
shortages could develop into serious problems. The problem is
further worsened by the fact that an increasing number of
Indonesians are moving into the cities, giving rise to all the
social ills which burgeoning urban populations cause.

The presence of our 200 millionth citizen, then, reflects two
things: First, it seems that our present model of development,
which is not sustainable -- because, among other things, it is
incapable of supporting the growing population -- must be
reviewed. Second, a redistribution of our population is necessary
so that the population of Java, of the cities and of the western
parts of Indonesia will not upset the proper social equilibrium
in those areas.

A redistribution of the population, of course, cannot be
carried out without a decentralization of economic and industrial
growth centers. In short, the presence of our 200 millionth
citizen implies a warning concerning the existing imbalance
between Java and other areas; urban and rural areas and between
the western and eastern parts of Indonesia. Therefore the
development of areas outside Java, of rural areas and of Eastern
Indonesia must be given ever greater priority.

-- Republika, Jakarta