Managing our growing population

One of the estimated 8,128 babies born yesterday (Tuesday) will be officially declared Indonesia's 200 millionth citizen. However, the presence of our 200 millionth citizen is not an unconditional blessing. It alerts us to a possible coming population explosion plus all the ecological and social implications which it brings.

At present, Indonesia has about 194 million hectares of arable land. If the acreage of tracts reserved for environmental protection and conservation purposes is subtracted from this total, 111 million hectares will remain for habitation and cultivation. This is the total acreage of land available to support our 200 million people. The problem gets worse when we take the ecological carrying capacity of these lands into account. At present, this capacity has already been surpassed on the island of Java and in a number of areas on the island of Sumatra.

At present, the water supply on Java, as well as in a number of other areas in Indonesia, is already insufficient to meet the needs of the agricultural industry. At the time we became self- sufficient in rice 13 years ago, 98 percent of the surface water available on Java was used for agriculture and only 2 percent to supply clean waterbto cities and meet other nonagricultural needs. Now, the inadequate water supply threatens the capability of the land to maintain adequate food reserves for our 200 million people.

The issue becomes crucial when the relevant social variables are taken into account. A population explosion calls for an increasingly efficient system of social and space management, otherwise rising unemployment, growing crime and severe housing shortages could develop into serious problems. The problem is further worsened by the fact that an increasing number of Indonesians are moving into the cities, giving rise to all the social ills which burgeoning urban populations cause.

The presence of our 200 millionth citizen, then, reflects two things: First, it seems that our present model of development, which is not sustainable -- because, among other things, it is incapable of supporting the growing population -- must be reviewed. Second, a redistribution of our population is necessary so that the population of Java, of the cities and of the western parts of Indonesia will not upset the proper social equilibrium in those areas.

A redistribution of the population, of course, cannot be carried out without a decentralization of economic and industrial growth centers. In short, the presence of our 200 millionth citizen implies a warning concerning the existing imbalance between Java and other areas; urban and rural areas and between the western and eastern parts of Indonesia. Therefore the development of areas outside Java, of rural areas and of Eastern Indonesia must be given ever greater priority.

-- Republika, Jakarta