Malaysian polls will be fought in the heartland

By Eileen Ng

KUALA LUMPUR (AFP): The main battleground in Malaysia's upcoming elections lies hundreds of kilometers from the gleaming skyscrapers of Kuala Lumpur -- in the conservative rural Muslim Malay heartland.

Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said Sunday his ruling coalition would focus its election campaign on four northern states -- Perlis, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu.

"This is because lies and slander are being spread among villagers in these states which are largely populated by the Malays," he was quoted as saying by the state Bernama news agency.

The premier said the Malays believed in so-called "ulamas" (religious teachers) who used their position to confuse the people.

"For instance, they say profanities are found in the holy book and that this is good and that is no good and so on.... and because these are uttered by ulamas, they believe," he said.

"If I say slander is worse than murder and that this is found in the Koran, they choose not to understand because I am the one saying it."

Kelantan, the country's only opposition-controlled state, has been governed since 1990 by the Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS).

Analysts say Mahathir, 73, faces his toughest challenge of recent years after the sacking and jailing of his popular deputy premier Anwar Ibrahim split the bedrock Malay constituency.

Officials estimate ethnic Malays account for around 56 percent of the 9.56 million eligible voters, with ethnic Chinese making up about one-third and the rest Indian and other races.

A local survey published Sunday showed nearly 42 percent of voters were still undecided, some two weeks before polling on Nov. 29. Up for grabs are 193 parliamentary seats and 394 seats in 11 state assemblies.

Mahathir who has been in power for 18 years, has committed himself to retaining his National Front coalition's two-thirds parliamentary majority. It holds 166 out of 192 seats in the current parliament.

PAS has formed an alliance with the Democratic Action Party (DAP), the National Justice Party (Keadilan) headed by Anwar's wife and the Malaysian People's Party. Anwar is its candidate for prime minister.

Sani Hamid, senior analyst with Standard and Poor's MMS, sees the coalition holding the upper hand in the election but said the situation in the run-up would remain "very fluid."

"There will be a lot of hanging out of dirty laundry by both sides which could sway some votes at the last minute," Sani said.

He said the polls would focus on the state level, with the four states earmarked by the National Front shaping up as the main battleground.

Abdul Razak Baginda, executive director of the Malaysian Strategic Research Institute, predicted the National Front retaining its two-thirds majority but with an erosion in the number of seats.

But Razak said it faced a tough battle in the northern Malay states as well as in its bid to reclaim Kelantan.

"There is a different voting pattern in the states. Messages such as development does not work. Voters are more concerned with parochial, religious and personality-oriented issues," he said.

Razak said it would be a "significant drawback" for the coalition if it loses more than one state as this would show that PAS had made significant inroads among the rural community.

Only two states have ever fallen under opposition rule -- Kelantan and the Chinese-dominated Penang state.

"Anwar is basically a case of personality versus national interest. If he or his party loses, it shows that the Malays have put national interests above personality," Razak added.

DAP secretary-general Lim Kit Siang conceded that Malay votes would be a dominant factor in the polls but said the "battle is for the soul of Malaysia."

"For the first time, denting the National Front's two-thirds majority is within the opposition's reach but it will not be easy," he added.