Malaysia: Parallels and differences

Malaysia is not Indonesia. Although the economic crisis has forced many to be more careful with their money, and cut back on unnecessary luxuries, that is a far cry from the food shortages and starvation in many parts of Indonesia that triggered the rioting which brought down Soeharto. The average income in Malaysia is still more than four times the Indonesian figure.

Another important difference is the absence of the ethnic tension that erupted into such violence against Indonesia's ethnic Chinese, so accelerating Soeharto's downfall. Kuala Lumpur's long-established bumiputra-first policy -- of discriminating in favor of ethnic Malays -- means there is nothing like the same resentment toward the nation's Chinese community.

But the biggest difference is between the political astuteness of these two leaders. While Soeharto had his skills, these pale into insignificance alongside those of Dr. Mahathir in maintaining the support of countless political factions.

His grip on the ruling party, UMNO, is so ironclad that no other politician of any substance has dared to speak out against him. Even the party's youth wing, which previously supported Anwar, has barely protested at the detention of its leader, Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, and is likely to fall meekly back into Dr. Mahathir's camp.

None of this is to deny that Anwar's high-profile campaign against his firing has had some effect. Tens, possibly hundreds, of thousands of middle-class Malaysians have been radicalized by events of the past few weeks and discovered the art of street protests. In the long term this poses severe dangers for Dr. Mahathir, as do the delayed effects of his isolationist economic policies.

But those who now predict a swift, Soeharto-style, palace coup in Kuala Lumpur are missing the point. Each country must follow its own road toward reform and, in Malaysia, that path still has a long way to go.

-- The South China Morning Post, Hong Kong