Mahathir's pary nearing moment of truth

By Nelson Graves

KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters): The rank and file of Malaysia's dominant party nominate their leaders this month in a test of Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad's strength and his heir apparent's prospects of someday succeeding Asia's veteran chief.

The nominations ahead of the general assembly of Mahathir's United Malays National Organization (UMNO) in May were supposed to be a carefully scripted affair.

But lingering discontent over the sacking and arrest of Mahathir's former deputy Anwar Ibrahim 18 months ago and the party's lackluster performance in November polls could spur the prime minister's former archrival to mount a challenge.

Once a minister in Mahathir's cabinet, Razaleigh Hamzah lost to the UMNO chief by a razor-thin margin in the party's watershed leadership elections in 1987.

Razaleigh, a 62-year-old prince from the northeastern state of Kelantan, is considering challenging either Mahathir or, perhaps more probably, his deputy Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

UMNO's president by tradition serves as prime minister and the deputy president as deputy prime minister. The election is crucial because Mahathir has said this term may be his last. In a political shadow play, Razaleigh has studiously avoided committing himself as UMNO's 165 divisions prepare to nominate leaders to the party's top spots.

Mahathir and Abdullah won one nomination each last Thursday as the first division in Sabah state followed the advice of UMNO's decision-making Supreme Council, which in January recommended that the party's two top leaders be elected without opposition.

Another 17 divisions were to hold meetings on Sunday. All 165 were scheduled to complete the nominations by April 2.

Razaleigh would need the support of 50 divisions to be nominated for UMNO president and 33 for deputy.

A clear indication will come in the next two weeks when the critical mass of divisions including some in Kelantan, Razaleigh's home state, list their nominations.

Razaleigh has kept the door open to an eventual challenge. "Ball still very much in Razaleigh's court as vote hunting season begins", a headline in the New Sunday Times said.

Mahathir's coalition won polls in November, giving the 74-year-old leader a fifth five-year mandate.

But UMNO, divided over the sacking and arrest of the charismatic Anwar, lost ground in the Muslim Malay heartland states to the Islamic conservative Parti Islam se-Malaysia (PAS).

Razaleigh is perceived as being the flag bearer of UMNO members who stand by Anwar and seek change in the party which has led Malaysia's governing coalition since independence in 1957.

"Razaleigh is the only one who appears blameless over Anwar," a diplomat said.

Mahathir sacked Anwar in September 1998, accusing him of sexual misconduct and of trying to topple his government through violent riots. Anwar, who commands support in many parts of the Malay rural heartland, says he was the victim of a political plot.

Last week Razaleigh was compelled to deny a report in a Japanese newspaper that said he would free Anwar, who is serving a six-year jail term for corruption, if he became prime minister.

"I never said such a thing. Only a mad man would make such a statement," Razaleigh said, adding that he believed the story stemmed from efforts to pit him against Mahathir.

UMNO Secretary-General Khalil Yaacob dismissed talk that Razaleigh would risk splitting the party.

"They have a saying here -- 'You don't go against the boss,'" Khalil told foreign journalists last week.

But others were less sure. "The situation is still very, very fluid," an adviser to an UMNO Supreme Council member said.

In an effort to placate Razaleigh and avoid a damaging split, the chief ministers of three states last week recommended to the 41 divisions in their states that they nominate Razaleigh to become UMNO vice president, a post he has held before.

It was not clear whether Razaleigh would agree to pass up the chance to run for UMNO president or deputy president.

Financial markets last week were rife with talk that Abdullah was upset. He assumed the duties of UMNO deputy president after Anwar was sacked but has not been elected to the post.

"It appears Abdullah is unhappy over the prospect that he may have to fight a battle," an aide to a cabinet minister said. "He is concerned to what extent the PM will come to his support."

Abdullah recently rejected unflattering comparisons between himself and former Indonesian President B.J. Habibie which he said came from UMNO enemies seeking to undermine his authority.

Habibie was a protege of former President Soeharto but lost in Indonesia's presidential elections last year. Habibie's long association with Soeharto was widely believed to have undermined his chances of winning the election.

"It is sheer nonsense for people to 'Habibie-ise' me simply because of my close association with Mahathir," Abdullah said.