Mahathir's Myanmar policy not just empty rhetoric

Mahathir's Myanmar policy not just empty rhetoric

Bantarto Bandoro, Editor, The Indonesian Quarterly,
Centre For Strategic And International Studies (CSIS)
bandoro@csis.or.id

CPF Luhulima, Senior Fellow, CSIS and Member,
Eminent Person Group for Asean Vision 2020
Jakarta, luhulima@csis.or.id

The issue of the detention of Aung San Suu Kyi, the
prodemocracy leader in Myanmar, has again forced foreign
ministers from the regions of the Association of Southeast
Nations (ASEAN) and Europe, convened in Bali last week to seek a
common approach to regional and global issues, to call on the
regime in Yangon to abide by its pledges to free Suu Kyi.

Though the issue of Myanmar did not overshadow other issues
key to the region, it has strengthened the perception of ASEAN
and the European Union that Myanmar must move ahead with the
democratization process.

The ministers underlined that the release of Suu Kyi would
rectify the current setbacks in democracy in the country. Both
ASEAN and European countries share the same concern over Myanmar:
The military junta has done a great deal of economic and social
damage to its own country by ignoring the calls from the world.

The issue of Myanmar does make a difference to the extent to
which European countries and ASEAN have so far been affected by
it. The concerns of European countries regarding Myanmar are
related particularly to the development of democracy and human
rights. Such concerns, however, have not in any way caused the
European countries to react toward Myanmar differently from each
other. That is to say, Myanmar is less a policy problem for the
European countries. It can only ask ASEAN to put more pressure on
the country.

Before and even after its inception into ASEAN, Myanmar was
always a focus of debate within ASEAN. The rather slow
development of the democratization process within Yangon and the
seemingly uncooperative policy of the regime toward ASEAN have
put ASEAN's solidarity to a real test. Individual ASEAN
governments may indeed cherish human rights and democracy, but to
push these at any ASEAN forum risks disunity within ASEAN.

Thus, Myanmar is indeed a real policy problem for ASEAN,
meaning that its internal, as well as external, diplomacy have
been hampered by the issue of Myanmar. Of all the moves ASEAN has
initiated over the years to make the association stronger and
its diplomacy more credible, admitting Myanmar has perhaps been
a decision ASEAN has grown to regret the most. As one analyst
observed, Myanmar's misbehavior has become a thorn in ASEAN's
flesh (Asiatime on line, 2003).

That ASEAN has had to break with its tradition, at its recent
Phnom Penh meeting, of not criticizing the affairs of a member
state, by urging the release of Suu Kyi, is a sign of its belief
that democracy and human rights must be upheld and respected. The
courage to break with tradition has also been motivated by
ASEAN's concern at its international image and reputation. By the
unprecedented joint call for the release of Suu Kyi, ASEAN is
making a cooperative gesture toward its international partners.
But Yangon has not responded to the expressions of concern by
members of the international community. In spite of pressure on
ASEAN from outside the region, and the continued detention of Suu
Kyi, ASEAN leaders have not lost patience with the generals in
Yangon. Mahathir "fortunately" did.

In a recent media interview, Mahathir suggested that Myanmar
be expelled from ASEAN. Mahathir's idea has come at a time when
ASEAN is attempting to demonstrate to the world its political
cohesiveness and solidarity, particularly during the threat of
global terrorism, which is thought to have caused division within
the association. Mahathir's suggestion has put ASEAN's political
cohesiveness and solidarity to another real test.

With such a suggestion, Mahathir might have wanted to see
ASEAN move faster in its handling of the Myanmar issue and
thought that the unprecedented call by ASEAN was politically
insufficient to change the behavior of the regime in Yangon.
Mahathir's idea might have been dictated by the fact that ASEAN's
international policy was held hostage by the generals in Yangon.
He also observed that the generals in Yangon were probably using
the association as a shield for their unwavering political
stance.

It is not at all clear that other ASEAN members want to expel
Myanmar. But Indonesian foreign minister Hassan Wirayuda was
reported as saying that isolating Myanmar would not resolve the
standoff and that ASEAN should not depart from the existing
ASEAN's minister statement issued in Phnom Penh. This has always
been a classic argument put forward by Indonesia and certain
members of ASEAN, when ASEAN has been faced with a thorny issue
like Myanmar. Indonesia, instead, will send special envoy Ali
Alatas to convey a message from President Megawati Soekarnoputri
to the Myanmar junta regarding the deteriorating situation there.

Whatever option ASEAN may adopt regarding the issue of
Myanmar, Mahathir's remarks should be seen as a kind of reminder
that ASEAN be more assertive in its policy toward Yangon. ASEAN
has no choice but to act promptly if its international diplomacy
and stand is not to be badly affected further by the Myanmar
case. The expulsion of Myanmar from ASEAN seems unlikely to take
effect immediately. Just as the decision to admit Myanmar was
reached through consensus, its expulsion has to be done in a
similar manner.

But the idea has already caused further division within ASEAN.
This has always been the case when one member of the association
proposes policy options, but the given policy does not seem to
suit other members. This is, however, to be expected. But when
it comes to something that touches the essence of democracy,
ASEAN's policy should be firm and consistent.

In any event, the obligation to press for systematic and
comprehensive change in Myanmar is now in ASEAN's court, not the
world's, and it has to learn how to do so quickly. Otherwise, by
virtue of its being an international governmental organization,
ASEAN might as well accept the fact it cannot play a significant
role in the Myanmar case. ASEAN should genuinely liberate itself
from being held hostage by Myanmar for so long.