Long way to go for Megawati

By Tjipta Lesmana

JAKARTA (JP): She appeared confident and very assertive on her July 29 speech. She spoke as if she would surely be president in a matter of days. She called the incumbent President by name and warned him not to make any strategic policies in his transitional government. She called for a stop to those who are maneuvering to block her way to the presidency. She was too emotional at one point and failed to fight back her tears.

"The Chairwoman of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) is ready to lead the country toward a new chapter," she declared.

The question is: Are the people ready to be led by the chairwoman of PDI Perjuangan?

Yes, Megawati Soekarnoputri, the eldest daughter of late founding president Sukarno, is posed to become our next president. As the winner of the June 7 elections, PDI Perjuangan is entitled to form and lead a new government. But that does not automatically mean that Megawati is entitled to be president.

PDI Perjuangan won 33.76 percent of the popular vote, the biggest share achieved by a single party in the elections. Yet, anyone could correctly claim that the majority of the people (66.24 percent) in the elections did not vote for PDI Perjuangan.

To put it another way, PDI Perjuangan won the popular vote but it is far from being enough to win the presidency. Hence, when Megawati repeatedly stressed respect for the supremacy of people in her speech, which people did she mean? Was it not the 33.76 percent section of society? How about the 66.24 percent who did not vote for PDI Perjuangan? Are they not also constituencies who have every right to say something about problems facing the nation? Yes, they are.

Our political system is different from the parliamentarian system. Instead of electing a president, people elect members of the House of Representatives or DPR, except 38 legislators granted by the Indonesian Military (TNI) whose 600,000 members do not vote. The 500 DPR members, plus 200 others representing interest groups and regional delegates, form the People Consultative Assembly (MPR), which is the highest state organ. It is the MPR which is going to elect a president and a vice- president.

According to our system, the rule of the supremacy of people is transformed to the supremacy of MPR (Article 1 of the 1945 Constitution). Any party contesting the presidency, not in the least PDI Perjuangan, must respect the basic law.

How a president is elected is stipulated by Article 6: the president is elected by majority vote of the MPR. Megawati's contention that "the supremacy of people echoed across the country in the elections shall not be manipulated into the matter of the supremacy of MPR" is tantamount to misleading.

The winner of the elections is still a long way from capturing the presidency. PDI Perjuangan's pressing challenge is how to marshal support from other parties or factions at MPR to help it gain the majority vote needed to put Megawati as president.

Central to the strategy is winning popular support from regional and interest group representatives who are elected by the regional level of the House of Representatives (DPRD). In the past, they were always part of Golkar's allies because they were partly chosen by regional governments, which were heavily controlled by Golkar, and partly elected by the president himself.

A coalition of Golkar, regional representatives and the military faction formed a formidable force at the then MPR. So much so that the two small opposition parties, United Development Party (PPP) and PDI, were merely minor players. After Soeharto fell from power, a new and more democratic ruling of the regional delegates election mechanism was set up. The representatives are elected according to the power balance in each constituency. By such a mechanism, regional representatives will never form a solid faction, but are torn into factionalism.

PDI Perjuangan won 155 seats in DPR, and Golkar ranked second with 122 seats. Mathematically, PDI Perjuangan has the greatest chance to form the next administration. Politically, only the party which controls the single majority at the MPR or 351 seats can do it. Assuming that up to 40 percent of the regional and interest group representatives support PDI Perjuangan, Megawati's party still lacks 116 seats.

The single majority is still far away even if Abdurrahman Wahid's National Awakening Party (PKB) gives all its 51 seats to PDI Perjuangan. Amien Rais, once a potential coalition partner of Megawati and Abdurrahman, is embarking on his own way. He is trying to materialize his own ambitions by rallying the so-called "axis force," representing the Islamic block, which claims 190 seats at the MPR. Assuming that Amien will not back away from Megawati and is successful in forming a solid Islamic block with its own presidential candidate, how can Megawati be elected president? There's no way.

Megawati's July 29 speech was therefore sounding over- optimistic. In the past, Golkar had absolute control of the government because of its continuing landslide victories. To be the fourth president of Indonesia, Megawati has no option but to hammer out win-win deals with other parties, notably PKB, National Mandate Party (PAN) and the Indonesian Military.

Instead of showing off, it would have been more elegant if Megawati acknowledged in her speech the need to form a coalition and how she would map out her strategy to achieve it. It was also reprehensible Megawati did not spell out the contribution made by other political groupings in the reform movement. She put too much stress on the success of her party's quest to uphold democracy, so much so that the contribution of others was apparently sidelined. This was seen as a sign of arrogance.

Her stance on two important issues are worth commenting on, too. First, the possible amendment of the Constitution was touched on in Megawati's speech.

The PDI Perjuangan chairwoman, however, offered an ambiguous response. On one hand, she gave her support to the possible amendment of the 1945 Constitution. On the other, she did not explicitly spell out her party's conception on the issue. "I can spell out my stand only after ... which articles need to be revised, for what reason and purposes ... ." In a sense, Megawati gave a warning signal to all parties concerned that they would rather not talk flagrantly about Constitution amendments without knowing its substance.

The thought of the Constitution's revision has been everywhere the past year, indeed. Not a single party has apparently opposed the idea. In view of this, PDI Perjuangan seems to be left behind. At least party rank and files do not manifest a strong drive to talk about the subject. Dimyati Hartono, a leading party officer, rejected the idea in a recent speech. Those who disfavored the idea generally cited a threat of endangering the stability of national unity and coherence as the prime argument. But the 1945 Constitution is so undemocratic and irrelevant in today's world that its amendment seems a choice any wise politician and leader can not avoid.

Second was the issue of East Timor. Being a nationalist, Megawati strongly condemned Habibie's policy on East Timor. The policy, Megawati said, is evidently against the law. She cited the MPR Decree No. VI/MPR/1978, which categorically states East Timor as an integral part of Indonesia. Consequently, holding a referendum giving East Timorese the option of independence is not under the president's authority, but the MPR's.

However, nobody can turn the clock back. East Timor is already an international issue. UN involvement there is so heavy that Indonesia has no strong hand in determining the future of the island. The referendum is set for Aug. 30.

The Habibie government is facing an ambiguity. His decision for the province to hold the referendum apparently lacks military support. Since his shocking January announcement, international news has been inundated by reports about heavy military involvement in several arsenal and mob attacks on civilians aimed at discouraging people from giving support to the proindependence course.

Thousands of antiintegration followers reportedly fled the island to avoid attacks from the other groups. How could prointegration militias acquire huge fire weapons if not from the Indonesian Military?

World public opinion is portraying the Habibie administration as players in a dirty game. On one hand, Habibie kept saying the Timorese could freely choose their fate, but on the other, proindependence activists were persecuted. Between these two antagonistic groups, the UN Assistance Mission in East Timor (UNAMET) is accused of favoring the proindependence course.

Megawati would respect whatever result came from the referendum, but in East Timor the policy was disgusting to her. One thing is certain, however, and that is she and millions of other Indonesians will burst into tears if the voters opt for independence.

The writer, a social scientist graduated from the University of Chicago, is a columnist and lecturer.