Long way to go for Megawati

Long way to go for Megawati

By Tjipta Lesmana

JAKARTA (JP): She appeared confident and very assertive on
her July 29 speech. She spoke as if she would surely be president
in a matter of days. She called the incumbent President by name
and warned him not to make any strategic policies in his
transitional government. She called for a stop to those who are
maneuvering to block her way to the presidency. She was too
emotional at one point and failed to fight back her tears.

"The Chairwoman of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle
(PDI Perjuangan) is ready to lead the country toward a new
chapter," she declared.

The question is: Are the people ready to be led by the
chairwoman of PDI Perjuangan?

Yes, Megawati Soekarnoputri, the eldest daughter of late
founding president Sukarno, is posed to become our next
president. As the winner of the June 7 elections, PDI Perjuangan
is entitled to form and lead a new government. But that does not
automatically mean that Megawati is entitled to be president.

PDI Perjuangan won 33.76 percent of the popular vote, the
biggest share achieved by a single party in the elections. Yet,
anyone could correctly claim that the majority of the people
(66.24 percent) in the elections did not vote for PDI Perjuangan.

To put it another way, PDI Perjuangan won the popular vote but
it is far from being enough to win the presidency. Hence, when
Megawati repeatedly stressed respect for the supremacy of people
in her speech, which people did she mean? Was it not the 33.76
percent section of society? How about the 66.24 percent who did
not vote for PDI Perjuangan? Are they not also constituencies who
have every right to say something about problems facing the
nation? Yes, they are.

Our political system is different from the parliamentarian
system. Instead of electing a president, people elect members of
the House of Representatives or DPR, except 38 legislators
granted by the Indonesian Military (TNI) whose 600,000 members do
not vote. The 500 DPR members, plus 200 others representing
interest groups and regional delegates, form the People
Consultative Assembly (MPR), which is the highest state organ. It
is the MPR which is going to elect a president and a vice-
president.

According to our system, the rule of the supremacy of people
is transformed to the supremacy of MPR (Article 1 of the 1945
Constitution). Any party contesting the presidency, not in the
least PDI Perjuangan, must respect the basic law.

How a president is elected is stipulated by Article 6: the
president is elected by majority vote of the MPR. Megawati's
contention that "the supremacy of people echoed across the
country in the elections shall not be manipulated into the matter
of the supremacy of MPR" is tantamount to misleading.

The winner of the elections is still a long way from capturing
the presidency. PDI Perjuangan's pressing challenge is how to
marshal support from other parties or factions at MPR to help it
gain the majority vote needed to put Megawati as president.

Central to the strategy is winning popular support from
regional and interest group representatives who are elected by
the regional level of the House of Representatives (DPRD). In the
past, they were always part of Golkar's allies because they were
partly chosen by regional governments, which were heavily
controlled by Golkar, and partly elected by the president
himself.

A coalition of Golkar, regional representatives and the
military faction formed a formidable force at the then MPR. So
much so that the two small opposition parties, United Development
Party (PPP) and PDI, were merely minor players. After Soeharto
fell from power, a new and more democratic ruling of the regional
delegates election mechanism was set up. The representatives are
elected according to the power balance in each constituency. By
such a mechanism, regional representatives will never form a
solid faction, but are torn into factionalism.

PDI Perjuangan won 155 seats in DPR, and Golkar ranked
second with 122 seats. Mathematically, PDI Perjuangan has the
greatest chance to form the next administration. Politically,
only the party which controls the single majority at the MPR or
351 seats can do it. Assuming that up to 40 percent of the
regional and interest group representatives support PDI
Perjuangan, Megawati's party still lacks 116 seats.

The single majority is still far away even if Abdurrahman
Wahid's National Awakening Party (PKB) gives all its 51 seats to
PDI Perjuangan. Amien Rais, once a potential coalition partner of
Megawati and Abdurrahman, is embarking on his own way. He is
trying to materialize his own ambitions by rallying the so-called
"axis force," representing the Islamic block, which claims 190
seats at the MPR. Assuming that Amien will not back away from
Megawati and is successful in forming a solid Islamic block with
its own presidential candidate, how can Megawati be elected
president? There's no way.

Megawati's July 29 speech was therefore sounding over-
optimistic. In the past, Golkar had absolute control of the
government because of its continuing landslide victories. To be
the fourth president of Indonesia, Megawati has no option but to
hammer out win-win deals with other parties, notably PKB,
National Mandate Party (PAN) and the Indonesian Military.

Instead of showing off, it would have been more elegant if
Megawati acknowledged in her speech the need to form a coalition
and how she would map out her strategy to achieve it. It was also
reprehensible Megawati did not spell out the contribution made by
other political groupings in the reform movement. She put too
much stress on the success of her party's quest to uphold
democracy, so much so that the contribution of others was
apparently sidelined. This was seen as a sign of arrogance.

Her stance on two important issues are worth commenting on,
too. First, the possible amendment of the Constitution was
touched on in Megawati's speech.

The PDI Perjuangan chairwoman, however, offered an ambiguous
response. On one hand, she gave her support to the possible
amendment of the 1945 Constitution. On the other, she did not
explicitly spell out her party's conception on the issue. "I can
spell out my stand only after ... which articles need to be
revised, for what reason and purposes ... ." In a sense, Megawati
gave a warning signal to all parties concerned that they would
rather not talk flagrantly about Constitution amendments without
knowing its substance.

The thought of the Constitution's revision has been
everywhere the past year, indeed. Not a single party has
apparently opposed the idea. In view of this, PDI Perjuangan
seems to be left behind. At least party rank and files do not
manifest a strong drive to talk about the subject. Dimyati
Hartono, a leading party officer, rejected the idea in a recent
speech. Those who disfavored the idea generally cited a threat of
endangering the stability of national unity and coherence as the
prime argument. But the 1945 Constitution is so undemocratic and
irrelevant in today's world that its amendment seems a choice any
wise politician and leader can not avoid.

Second was the issue of East Timor. Being a nationalist,
Megawati strongly condemned Habibie's policy on East Timor. The
policy, Megawati said, is evidently against the law. She cited
the MPR Decree No. VI/MPR/1978, which categorically states East
Timor as an integral part of Indonesia. Consequently, holding a
referendum giving East Timorese the option of independence is not
under the president's authority, but the MPR's.

However, nobody can turn the clock back. East Timor is already
an international issue. UN involvement there is so heavy that
Indonesia has no strong hand in determining the future of the
island. The referendum is set for Aug. 30.

The Habibie government is facing an ambiguity. His decision
for the province to hold the referendum apparently lacks military
support. Since his shocking January announcement, international
news has been inundated by reports about heavy military
involvement in several arsenal and mob attacks on civilians aimed
at discouraging people from giving support to the proindependence
course.

Thousands of antiintegration followers reportedly fled the
island to avoid attacks from the other groups. How could
prointegration militias acquire huge fire weapons if not from the
Indonesian Military?

World public opinion is portraying the Habibie administration
as players in a dirty game. On one hand, Habibie kept saying the
Timorese could freely choose their fate, but on the other,
proindependence activists were persecuted. Between these two
antagonistic groups, the UN Assistance Mission in East Timor
(UNAMET) is accused of favoring the proindependence course.

Megawati would respect whatever result came from the
referendum, but in East Timor the policy was disgusting to her.
One thing is certain, however, and that is she and millions of
other Indonesians will burst into tears if the voters opt for
independence.

The writer, a social scientist graduated from the University
of Chicago, is a columnist and lecturer.