Long road ahead for S. Africa's opposition

By Ed Stoddard

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters): The merger between South Africa's Democratic Party (DP) and the New National Party (NNP) will pose no threat to the political supremacy of the ruling African National Congress (ANC) for a long time.

But analysts said on Sunday it could eventually build a credible challenge to the ANC, provided it can shed its image as a party for whites and attract black voters -- no easy task.

"The ANC works very hard at presenting the DP as a white party aimed at defending minority privilege. That will be a hard tag to shake off," said Alexander Johnston, a political scientist at the University of Natal.

"They have all sorts of image and psychological problems. It is hard for black voters to identify with them," he said.

The DP and the NNP agreed on Saturday to merge and form a new party, the Democratic Alliance, headed by DP leader Tony Leon, a white English speaker. NNP leader Marthinus van Schalkwyk, a white Afrikaner, will be Leon's deputy.

The first problem the merging parties face is finding enough common ground for the NNP's right wing to co-exist comfortably with more liberal elements in the DP.

The National Party dominated South Africa for decades, ruthlessly enforcing the policy of racial segregation known as apartheid after coming to power in 1948, and then dismantling it in a dramatic about-turn in the 1990s.

The DP's predecessor, the Progressive Party, opposed apartheid and bitterly opposed the National Party for decades.

"There have been contradictions between liberals and the right wing within the DP itself and we will now see this on a much larger scale," said Johnston.

Differences could emerge on a range of social issues such as capital punishment, abortion and affirmative action. But both parties are pro-market and both take a tough line on crime in a country traumatized by a wave of criminality.

The NNP brings to the merger its wide support from the Afrikaans-speaking colored or mixed race community.

The Democratic Alliance must now repackage itself to woo black voters without alienating its core white and colored constituencies, analysts said.

"This is a dilemma but I don't think alienating white voters is such a big problem because white voters have nowhere else to go," said Johnston.

Others say the party could become the only viable political home for white voters, drawing whites from smaller, far-right parties such as the Freedom Front and the Federal Alliance.

"People from some of the right-wing parties may switch their allegiance," said Tom Lodge, a professor of politics at the University of Witwatersrand in Johannesburg.

The DP has been looking at an alliance with the United Christian Democratic Party, headed by Lucas Mangope who once ruled a black homeland known as Bophuthatswana. The two parties earlier this year signed a vague "cooperation agreement."

Other parties that could be tugged into the new party's embrace include the multi-racial United Democratic Movement.

"Getting these parties on their side could allow them to break into the black electorate...They're not going to take many black votes from the ANC right away, but in the long term it could be plausible," said Lodge.

Analysts said the party's tough line on crime could be sold to black voters, who are as worried by crime as their white counterparts. It could also attract black voters by focusing on service delivery and a minimum income -- an idea the DP has talked about.

Forming the Democratic Alliance was itself a big step. The DP is the official opposition with 38 seats in the National Assembly, while the NNP has 28 seats. But all parties are dwarfed by the ANC, which has 266 of parliament's 400 seats.

"A lot of voters have been frustrated with the splintered nature of the opposition," said Johnston -- a view echoed by Tony Leon.

"No opposition party or movement is capable of taking on the ANC single-handed...This is particularly so if opposition parties continue to spend their time, energy and resources in competition for votes among themselves," Leon said in an article in the Sunday Times newspaper.

The Alliance's first big test will come in local elections due in November.