Local official debunks warning by foreign seismologist Apriadi Gunawan and Sjofiardi Bachyul, The Jakarta Post, Medan/Padang
North Sumatra residents were told not to panic in response to analysis from foreign seismologists that another monster earthquake would rock the province in the near future, a government official said on Thursday.
Tuban Wiyoso, the chief of the Data and Information Section at the Medan Meteorology and Geophysics Agency, said that the analysis was not necessarily truthful as there was no technology currently available that could accurately predict where and when earthquakes will occur.
Tuban was responding to a conclusion reached by John McCloskey, a professor of environmental sciences at Britain's University of Ulster. McCloskey recently said that Sumatra island was now at risk from two potentially major quakes, one of which could generate waves 10 meters high.
He feared that the next quakes might be as high as 9.0 on the Richter scale, and could be centered near cities along the west coast of Sumatra, including Padang.
In contrast to McCloskey, Tuban predicted that such a monster earthquake would not happen in western or northern Sumatra "in the near future."
The intensity and frequency of a series of strong aftershocks, believed to be related to 9.3-magnitude quake on Dec. 26 off the coast of Aceh and another one measuring 8.7 on the Richter scale off Nias island in March, had been consistently declining, Tuban theorized.
"Shortly after the two big quakes, measuring 9.3 and 8.7 on the Richter scale, the aftershocks occurred daily. But, now they only occur every fourth day or so. The intensity of the aftershocks has also been on the decline, with many of the stronger ones now below 6 on the Richter scale. These quakes are not dangerous," claimed Tuban.
Despite the difference of opinion between Tuban and McCloskey, the Padang municipal government has taken precautionary measures to prevent fatalities, should larger quakes hit.
The municipal government established a Tsunami and Earthquake Information Post, a day after the 8.7-quake rocked Nias Island on March 28. The post provides a map for residents that directs them to safe areas where the residents are supposed to head if there is a danger of a tsunami. The government has also set up emergency training courses for students and teachers whose schools are within two kilometers of the coast.
Together with telecommunications company PT Telkomsel, the municipal administration has built 40 warning sirens throughout the city, in the event of an impending tsunami.