Local elections could expand Golkar's political power base

Amy Chew, New Straits Times, Kuala Lumpur

Indonesia's largest political party, Golkar, looks set to further expand its power as the party enters the country's first- ever regional elections, which kicked off on June 1, as the contender widely tipped to win the most seats.

Vice-President Jusuf Kalla, by virtue of his position as chairman of Golkar, will become even more powerful when his partys cadres start grabbing the top jobs in the provinces, thus gaining control of local government.

The regional elections will further deepen the rivalry between Jusuf and his boss, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, according to observers.

"De facto, power is in the hands of Jusuf Kalla," a Susilo aide told the New Straits Times.

The polls will see the election of provincial governors, heads of regencies and districts chiefs, previously government appointments, in an on-going process scheduled to last more than a year to give greater autonomy to the regions.

Golkar was the political vehicle of former President Soeharto, who ruled with an iron fist for 32 years and kept his grip on power by controlling the masses through an extensive network of provincial governors, heads of regencies and district chiefs.

That network has remained largely intact and continues to be dominated by Golkar cadres despite Soeharto's ouster in 1998, which ushered in four presidents in the space of six years.

In the provinces, Golkar cadres, by and large, are familiar faces to the local community, having served as local chiefs for many years. Their closeness to the people makes it easy for them to gain support in the elections.

Added to that is Golkar's mighty and well-oiled party machinery, which reaches the remotest part of the vast archipelago of more than 17,000 islands and is unmatched by any other party.

"Our target is to win 60 percent of the seats in the regional elections. We have been working on this for the past two to three years," said Andi Matalatta, head of the Golkar faction in Parliament.

By contrast, Susilo's Democratic Party is tiny and new, established only in 2002. The party does not have enough members to put up candidates in many of the regions.

"The Democratic Party does not have enough capable people to stand in the local elections. It is difficult to halt Golkar in this election," said the Susilo aide.

The regional elections are not expected to bring about much change in the provincial leaderships, save for a few new faces here and there. In any case, it would only serve to give greater legitimacy to the Golkar cadres who currently run the local bureaucracies.

"It is not a change. This situation has been in existence from before. It will only be a strengthening of the situation we are seeing," said Agus Widjoyo, an analyst from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

However, former Regional Autonomy Minister Professor Ryaas Rasyid believes it would be difficult to predict the outcome.

"Golkar stands a good chance, but it's not a foregone conclusion. The regional elections will be very local and culturally driven. There will be a lot of emotional, cultural and ethnic ties between the candidate and the voters," said Ryaas.

For 2005, a total of 215 heads of regencies and districts are up for contest. In addition, the governorships of 11 out of 33 provinces are being vied for.

At the national level, Golkar holds the largest bloc of seats in Parliament, having won 128 in the 550-seat legislature at the April 2004 parliamentary elections, far more than Susilo's Democratic Party, which holds just 57 seats.

Affectionately known by his initials, SBY, Susilo won the presidency with more than 60 percent of the popular vote at the September 2004 presidential election.

Susilo now faces the challenge of translating his overwhelming presidential mandate into support in Parliament and local government to push through his campaign promises of fighting graft and reviving the economy to provide jobs to more than 40 million unemployed.

Should Golkar achieve its target of controlling 60 percent of local governments, analysts and politicians say the party will be on a stronger footing to make demands for greater power-sharing in the central government.

And Susilo will placed in a dilemma since the support of local government is crucial in carrying out Jakarta's policies.

"If Golkar should achieve its target of a clean sweep in the regional elections, Susilo will be weakened. If the local government does not fully co-operate with the central government, that will be an obstacle to Susilo's efforts to push for reform," said the Susilo aide.

Already, some Golkar party members are asking for an increase in the party's representation in the Cabinet, from the present two ministers to five.

The regional elections will also serve to further embolden the provinces, which will no longer be acquiescent to Jakarta as in the past. They are expected to press the central government for concessions on wide-ranging issues.

"After the regional elections, a new pattern of relationship between the local and central governments will emerge," said Ryaas who is also a Member of Parliament.

"The locally elected leader will consider himself to be more independent and more predisposed to oppose the central government if its policies are considered to be against the interests of his community," said Ryaas.

Indonesia first started implementing regional autonomy piecemeal in 2000. One of the casualties of the haphazard devolution is foreign investors, who suddenly found themselves having to deal with red tape and cumbersome rules in both the central and local governments.

With greater legitimacy rendered to local leaders via the ballot box, investors worry the investment climate could get worse, with corruption likely to thrive at the regional level.

"This poses another challenge for the central government to streamline laws and regulations so that there's consistency, and not create obstacles and more bureaucracy for the investor and businessman," said CSIS's Widjoyo.

A strengthened Golkar working through emboldened provinces add up to a tough challenge for President Susilo in the months to come, which could decide whether or not he would have to compromise on the pledges of reform he made to the people.