Living with old forces under a new government

The old forces still play a key role in this 'reform era.' Political professor of the Yogyakarta-based Gadjah Mada University, Pratikno talks with The Jakarta Post on the issue.

Question:Golkar reportedly agreed at the last minute to give its votes to Abdurrahman Wahid (Gus Dur). How do you see this?

Answer: Golkar would surely have been a major contributor. After B.J. Habibie withdrew his candidacy, Golkar had a limited choice; if they had abstained they would have got no concessions and would have no friends anywhere. The second choice was to vote for Gus Dur because from Golkar's perspective, Gus Dur is clearly more accommodative and moderate compared to Megawati (Soekarnoputri) of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan).

Gus Dur's willingness to hold talks with Habibie had also convinced many in Habibie's camp to shift their votes to Gus Dur.

I'm sure Gus Dur also got the support of the Indonesian Military (TNI) as the TNI would have likely considered that choosing Gus Dur would be better. Unlike Megawati, Gus Dur holds no grudges against the military.

With such support how do you see the new government?

Regardless of the sources of support, a government led by a figure like Gus Dur will certainly lead to a moderate and accommodating government. Initially he did not nominate himself because he did not have a real base from a political party, unlike Megawati. But contemporary theory dictates that in a former authoritarian country democratization depends on the ability of its actors to be moderate. Gus Dur's government has good prospects, because he will be able to bring Indonesia under a transition in which moderate reformists will work together with moderate people belonging to the status quo.

Will that mean his government will be soft on the alleged Soeharto corruption case and possibly a case against Habibie?

I think so, as reflected from his earlier attitude towards Soeharto. Being moderate could boomerang back to him without adequate political power. Gus Dur could build a timid government or one which extends too much forgiveness, precisely because he has friends everywhere. Being overly accommodating to all political forces could make his policies unclear and inconsistent, like Habibie's -- although of course he would be better than Habibie.

How should Megawati's camp be accommodated?

She should become vice president. If Akbar Tandjung was chosen, he would have had greater access to the bureaucracy than Gus Dur, and this would endanger even the most moderate reform process (he dropped out of the election -- ed).

So what concessions will Golkar and TNI likely ask for in exchange of their support?

I think it will be positions in the government which could save them from past sins. Usually in a transition period, those involved in an authoritarian government are fearful of their sins and they will try to save themselves from legal processes, which will certainly become part of the agenda of the new government. Rampant human rights abuses under the New Order would be among cases (which would be legally processed). Covering up past sins will be Golkar and TNI's commitment. Of course they want to be in power, at least in the formation of the new government. I think they (TNI and Golkar) know their place now and will not want to repeat past mistakes, but they will want guarantees of immunity from charges of human rights abuses and ... corruption.

When a global constitution binds almost all governments in the world, it is extraordinarily terrifying for anyone who was once involved in an authoritarian government. There will be people directly or indirectly implicated in human rights abuses. The former minister of home affairs and (his staff) will also fear prosecution.

Among key positions that Golkar or the military will try to fill are the attorney general and the Supreme Court of Justice ... Our courts are so influenced by politics, as is reflected in a number of lawsuits. (This could be avoided if) we free the attorney general's office from the monopoly of the government.

Could Habibie's earlier effort of running for president be motivated by a desire to avoid prosecution?

Yes, his involvement in the New Order, alleged involvement in the Baligate scandal and other cases would have led to fears of lawsuits against him. He would have gained some bargaining power if he had become president again.

Golkar, and also TNI, have become key forces which have to be courted by Amien Rais and also Megawati ...

I see that Golkar's public relations are convincing. Imagine, a number of Golkar figures can suddenly wash their hands of the sins of the New Order. Then there is 'white Golkar' (the reformists Golkar wing) which is getting stronger. Marzuki Darusman used to be a lone figure while now he has many friends in Golkar; suddenly Akbar Tandjung is in one camp with Marzuki, and the public seems to have forgiven his involvement in the New Order's political leadership. The coalition of "reformists" with Golkar figures such as him has been made possible by Golkar's ability to cleanse its image. This has reduced psychological barriers for people like Amien Rais to be able to work with Golkar.

Second, a man like Amien, who wanted a position like the speaker of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) inevitably had to seek support from outside the PDI Perjuangan. The most likely source was Golkar, because of the inability of his camp and Megawati's to work together from the start.

This reportedly happened because of technical things, like the lack of opportunities to communicate. But I think the trouble began because the two camps didn't trust each other to form a coalition. Megawati felt strong with her party's votes (which she won in the June elections) and Amien felt strong with his image as a reformist figure.

What is the implication of the likely coalition of a 'reformist' party and a status quo force?

If the elected president got the seat due to large support from the TNI or Golkar, the government would likely face a problematic situation, caught between demands for reform and democracy and demands for protection from members of Golkar and TNI accused of involvement in the wrongs of the past. The government which accommodates the Golkar Party will not have much leeway to meet both demands for reform and democracy.

Whoever the president was would have had to carry this burden after gaining support from Golkar and TNI.

After the fall of the New Order, it would be normal for all real political forces to be involved in the process of consolidation in the transition to democracy. ... A reformist or a non-reformist must be moderate -- but not too moderate to the extent that Golkar holds a key position that it does now.

Ideally the forces without historical links to the New Order should unite so the following government would no longer bear a historical burden. This would be the best way, although it wouldn't have to mean becoming Golkar's enemy.

There would be many obstacles in this transition period if Golkar and the military were given no opportunities at all. What would happen to career planning in TNI if they did not have any chance for positions outside their professional post? The military would face a rather chaotic situation among middle rank officers down to the lower ranks if (government) positions would be entirely closed to the military.

Would such an accommodative stance during the transition period serve to reduce resistance from the old forces?

Yes. I don't agree with the current process of placing Golkar in the key seat of speaker of the House of Representatives; but I would also disagree with the complete exclusion of this force which has roots in the New Order, because their resistance could increase. I also don't agree if the military in whatever capacity becomes president or vice president.

So democratization can work if different forces can work with a commitment to democracy while others could remain neutral... There should be accommodative ways without giving a key position to Golkar. The problem now is that Golkar's role will be large in politics. The DPR speaker is too important to give to Golkar.

Amien Rais as MPR Speaker has the less strategic position. A vote of no confidence, for example, would first be responded to by the DPR.

-- Asip A. Hasani