Little relevance in Ne Win saga

The Nation, Asia News Network, Bangkok

Coup leaders rarely enjoy a peaceful retirement. The cycle of violence they either trigger or perpetuate when they seize power nearly always comes back to claim them. For Burma's Ne Win it was a long wait, but sure enough, almost exactly 40 years after he installed himself as the country's supreme ruler in a 1962 coup, he now finds himself under house arrest in his mansion near Inya Lake.

How the Old Man, apparently ailing and beholden to his superstitions, finds himself in this predicament remains unclear. The ruling junta, which rose to power under Ne Win's patronage, says the former leader's daughter Sanda and three grandsons, unhappy at their loss of economic privileges, were conspiring to kidnap the military's top three members and replace them with a more sympathetic leadership.

Whether that version, or the alternative view that the current junta was just doing a little pre-emptive house-cleaning of possible opponents, is correct probably doesn't matter. Apart from the exhilaration of seeing justice finally catch up with Ne Win there is little that suggests the Burmese have gained from the events of the last week.

Either way you look at it, one mendacious self-serving group of generals and their relatives have simply consolidated their position and access to privilege over another one.

History will judge which installment of the regime has done Burma more damage -- Ne Win, who opted for a bizarre form of quasi-socialism that closed the country's doors on the rest of the world, or his proteges, who claimed to be opening up the country but only succeeded in destroying what remained of the economy (as well as wreaking havoc on the education system), allowing the build up of the world's biggest narco-army and overseeing the spread of one of the world's worst AIDS epidemics. For now, all one needs to know is that democracy has not been served.

For Thailand there is also little to be optimistic about. Under the current thrust of pursuing foreign policy through personalities, the consolidation of economic and military power in the hands of the Khin Nyunt-Maung Aye-Than Shwe triumvirate probably looks like something of a success.

See, we backed the right horse, Government House might crow. The only problem is that Bangkok had nothing on the horse and will now receive no dividend.

Despite the Thaksin government's back-bending appeasement, Rangoon has done nothing to address the Wa drug army and the tens of millions of methamphetamine pills they are pumping into the Kingdom, to appease worries about its military build-up -- it now has the second largest army in Southeast Asia and recently bought a squadron of Russian fighter jets -- to suggest it has a real plan for resettling the 100,000-plus refugees in Thailand or to curb its disrespectful and malignant press. It also has done little to suggest its 18-month-long talks with the opposition National League for Democracy will restore democracy and stability.

The only thing Burmese and outsiders can take comfort in is that eventually the cycle of coup-making will come back to consume the current military leadership as well. As Ne Win's life has demonstrated, not even the power of voodoo dolls and the mystic number nine can prevent that.