Let the campaign begin

Let the campaign begin

The election campaign period which gets underway today is
bound to be met with mixed feelings, with hope or optimism on the
one hand, and apprehension or fear on the other. This is an
election on which the nation pins much of its hopes of eventually
getting out of the current political and economic crises. But
this is also an election that has all the major ingredients to
potentially erupt into ugly violence of an unimaginable scale,
certainly much worse than we have seen to date.

The next 17 days will be crucial to Indonesia. It is a
make-or-break situation. If we fail to contain violence, this
nation could plunge into total anarchy and break apart. If we
survive this campaign period, then we could be well on our way to
our first ever real democratic election in more than four
decades.

An election campaign period historically has always been a
turbulent time for Indonesia, even when politics was tightly
controlled and the military was very much in charge. The 1997
elections were described even back then as the most brutal ever,
even though it was contested by three government-sanctioned
parties only and the military was widely feared, if not
respected. This year, 48 political parties are contesting the
elections, while the military and the police -- they are now two
separate entities -- have not only been criticized by the public,
but they have even at times become the target of a violent
backlash of public anger.

We have already had a foretaste of things to come. Ten people
have been killed and dozens injured in precampaign clashes in
Jepara and Pekalongan, both in Central Java, and in Bali's
Buleleng. This is in addition to recurrent violence in Ambon
(Maluku), Sambas (West Kalimantan) and in Aceh and East Timor.

It is understandable, even normal, for many people to be
apprehensive about what the coming weeks may have in store. What
is abnormal is for top government and military officials to
dismiss these fears as groundless. Images of violent incidents
that have erupted in this country over the past year are still
too vivid in everyone's memory -- except perhaps of those
officials -- to take anyone's words of assurances seriously. The
fact that the police and the military did nothing to prevent such
violence, like the looting, arson and gang rape during the unrest
in Jakarta 12 months ago, do not bode well for restoring public
confidence in the authorities' ability, not only to prevent the
attacks, but also to protect people's lives and property.

Pledges of peace by political parties and precautionary
measures taken by the General Elections Commission have failed to
assuage the public's worries. Similar pledges were made in 1997,
and tight campaign guidelines were imposed at the time to
minimize the likelihood of violence. Still, clashes occurred. The
stern warnings by military and police commanders against the
perpetrating of violence, and the massive deployment of their
forces have not appeased the public. In some regions like East
Timor and Aceh, the military is even seen as the problem or a
threat to the people.

The most frequently asked question today is not so much
whether there will be violence, but rather how violent will it
get, and where and when will it next erupt. Many people have
taken precautions in anticipation of the worst. Some are leaving
the country, or have made flight reservations to leave should
things turn ugly. Some are arming themselves, while many
residents have begun neighborhood night watches. Many are
stocking up on food and keeping travel to a bare minimum. Most
companies have set up crisis management units or drawn up
contingency plans.

What with the frenzy which has been heightened by the election
campaign, it is tempting to ask whether it is really worth it for
the nation to go through this process at all. The answer, as
hateful as it may seem to some, is yes. This is a process that we
need to go through if we hope to ever become a democratic
country. It is a risk, a very big one, that we have to take if we
want to reach the dream of the New Indonesia we have all been
talking about these past few months. This is also a test case for
Indonesians to prove, to themselves more than to anyone else, as
civilized people, before they can call theirs a civil society.
The elections, including the campaign period, are part of
Indonesia's learning curve in building democracy.

The campaign period which ends on June 4 is only one step on
that long and winding road toward democracy. There is still
voting day on June 7, and the formation of government and the
election of a president in November, all equally risky and prone
to violence. The best thing for us to do is to take this process
one step at a time, and pray that things don't get ugly.