Let the campaign begin

The election campaign period which gets underway today is bound to be met with mixed feelings, with hope or optimism on the one hand, and apprehension or fear on the other. This is an election on which the nation pins much of its hopes of eventually getting out of the current political and economic crises. But this is also an election that has all the major ingredients to potentially erupt into ugly violence of an unimaginable scale, certainly much worse than we have seen to date.

The next 17 days will be crucial to Indonesia. It is a make-or-break situation. If we fail to contain violence, this nation could plunge into total anarchy and break apart. If we survive this campaign period, then we could be well on our way to our first ever real democratic election in more than four decades.

An election campaign period historically has always been a turbulent time for Indonesia, even when politics was tightly controlled and the military was very much in charge. The 1997 elections were described even back then as the most brutal ever, even though it was contested by three government-sanctioned parties only and the military was widely feared, if not respected. This year, 48 political parties are contesting the elections, while the military and the police -- they are now two separate entities -- have not only been criticized by the public, but they have even at times become the target of a violent backlash of public anger.

We have already had a foretaste of things to come. Ten people have been killed and dozens injured in precampaign clashes in Jepara and Pekalongan, both in Central Java, and in Bali's Buleleng. This is in addition to recurrent violence in Ambon (Maluku), Sambas (West Kalimantan) and in Aceh and East Timor.

It is understandable, even normal, for many people to be apprehensive about what the coming weeks may have in store. What is abnormal is for top government and military officials to dismiss these fears as groundless. Images of violent incidents that have erupted in this country over the past year are still too vivid in everyone's memory -- except perhaps of those officials -- to take anyone's words of assurances seriously. The fact that the police and the military did nothing to prevent such violence, like the looting, arson and gang rape during the unrest in Jakarta 12 months ago, do not bode well for restoring public confidence in the authorities' ability, not only to prevent the attacks, but also to protect people's lives and property.

Pledges of peace by political parties and precautionary measures taken by the General Elections Commission have failed to assuage the public's worries. Similar pledges were made in 1997, and tight campaign guidelines were imposed at the time to minimize the likelihood of violence. Still, clashes occurred. The stern warnings by military and police commanders against the perpetrating of violence, and the massive deployment of their forces have not appeased the public. In some regions like East Timor and Aceh, the military is even seen as the problem or a threat to the people.

The most frequently asked question today is not so much whether there will be violence, but rather how violent will it get, and where and when will it next erupt. Many people have taken precautions in anticipation of the worst. Some are leaving the country, or have made flight reservations to leave should things turn ugly. Some are arming themselves, while many residents have begun neighborhood night watches. Many are stocking up on food and keeping travel to a bare minimum. Most companies have set up crisis management units or drawn up contingency plans.

What with the frenzy which has been heightened by the election campaign, it is tempting to ask whether it is really worth it for the nation to go through this process at all. The answer, as hateful as it may seem to some, is yes. This is a process that we need to go through if we hope to ever become a democratic country. It is a risk, a very big one, that we have to take if we want to reach the dream of the New Indonesia we have all been talking about these past few months. This is also a test case for Indonesians to prove, to themselves more than to anyone else, as civilized people, before they can call theirs a civil society. The elections, including the campaign period, are part of Indonesia's learning curve in building democracy.

The campaign period which ends on June 4 is only one step on that long and winding road toward democracy. There is still voting day on June 7, and the formation of government and the election of a president in November, all equally risky and prone to violence. The best thing for us to do is to take this process one step at a time, and pray that things don't get ugly.