Lessons Susilo can learn from Koizumi's victory

H.S. Dillon, Jakarta

Welcome home, Mr. President. Although many would argue that there was no need to be in New York last week, the world at least got an agreement to move forward in lock-step on some issues. There are some of us, however, who had hoped that your current Cabinet members would have enough gravitas to engage large foreign creditors and negotiate a phased debt-reduction.

We are not just another developing country, we are fast becoming the world's third-most populous democracy. We have the largest Muslim community, with a moderate in majority rule. Given proper governance, we could become a strong force for prosperity and peace in the region.

A number of us are convinced that we could drive a "Grand Bargain", wherein a performance-based debt reduction formula is accepted. The periodic assessments would encompass progress made in 1) corruption eradication, 2) environmental conservation, 3) poverty alleviation, 4) containing terrorism, and 5) promoting human rights. Surely, the democratic world would provide dividends for such commitment. But that will have to wait for another time now.

Although your hectic schedule in New York precluded a tete-a- tete with Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, let us try to take a few lessons away from Koizumi's epic victory over the anti-reformers in his country. Upon assuming office in 2001 he had vowed to reform Japan, even though it could mean destroying the LDP, his own party. This party's bosses across many factions had been responsible for the poor governance, viz-a-vis their pork-barreling in huge construction contracts. Although Koizumi managed to push through some reforms, entrenched interests who had thwarted his predecessors posed a constant threat.

You are coming home to face two pressing issues: The declining rupiah and burgeoning fuel subsidies. Why is there great anxiety among your supporters, and the populace at large? It is because they would like to see you deliver?

Ever since the bad governance, born out of collusion between those in office and the conglomerates, triggered the financial crisis, one leader after another has failed to keep their promises. Hopes have been repeatedly dashed. When you ran for President, despite the fact that you did not have any political base to speak of, you defeated the incumbent, the leader of a very big party. Why? Because, in plain language, she had squandered the trust the people had placed in her.

As the "biological daughter" of Bung Karno, they had expected her to fight for the "marhaen", the small people. They thought she would not hesitate to menjebol-membangun, or oversee a form of creative destruction to transform "extractive institutions" preying on the poor into "representative institutions" fighting for the people. They had hoped she would be inspired by her father, and lead us toward trisakti (the three powers), wherein the nation would be sovereign, self-sufficient, and of character.

Alas, the Ibu turned into an imperial president, traveling and partying most of the time. You, meanwhile, emerged as a warrior, promising fundamental -- but orderly -- change. In desperation, the people turned to you, and prayed that you would surmount all obstacles.

To the layman, you now appear to be fettered by home-grown "vested interests". Elected legislators and appointed officials from the corporate sector surrounding you are suspect. By the public they are seen -- correctly -- as being part of the Soeharto regime's last phase -- which spawned all the KKN, or bad governance. They have walked away unscathed, indeed have risen to such heights that would have never been possible for them under Soeharto.

They are striding like a colossus upon the "lesser-than-human beings" that millions of our impoverished have been reduced to. It is obvious that impunity has allowed the anti-reformers to retain their ill-gotten gains and use politics to further legitimize their releases and discharges. I am sure you realize that such blatant unfairness is inimical to our democracy.

Under such daunting circumstances, what options do you have? Borrow a page from Koizumi. He is a prime minister -- accountable to parliament, not a president elected directly by the people. His entrenched interests underestimated him, just as ours are misinterpreting your decency as a sign of weakness.

They have forgotten that without the support of any major party, you mounted a challenge against your own president. Your supporters know that it was more a sense of duty -- to discharge your debts to the republic, rather than a mere desire for power per se, that provided you the moral courage.

Koizumi picked an issue that, although it was removed from the immediate well-being of the average Japanese, put a face on those opposed to reform -- all who had been blocking progress. When they teamed up with the opposition to vote against him, Koizumi called their bluff and fired them.

His call for elections was believed by many as suicidal. However, decent, hard-working citizens, all the way from captains of sunrise industries to celebrities, hastened to his cause. Together, in partnership, they reached out to the voters. Their concerns resonated with the desire to build a cleaner and stronger Japan in the hearts of the electorate. They handed him a victory nobody would have even dared dream of.

You can do this! The issue is oil-smuggling, a practice that has been going on for decades. I am sure that this is being sustained by powerful forces. Even the current Pertamina chief executive is calling for the arrest of the "big fish" rather than the "small fry". Arrest all the suspects, impound all their -- and their families" -- wealth, and seek their early conviction.

I am sure that your Chief of Police, your Attorney General along with the Tipikor team, and the independent leadership of the KPK (Anti-Corruption Commission) will give you their full support. Blow the lid on Pertamina and the house of cards erected by the anti-reformers will come tumbling down. This will snowball, and before you can say "Jiminy Cricket" all those enjoying impunity will be behind bars.

This new legal certainty will strengthen the rupiah. Once they see their oppressors in jail, and the holy month of Ramadhan observed without undue hardship, the people will be better disposed towards fuel price hikes. Once domestic prices approximate world prices, incentives for smuggling will erode. A clear-cut long term energy policy should further encourage investment.

With many of the anti-reformers disgraced, you should have a free hand in forming your own Cabinet. One that is really dedicated to helping deliver your promises. Will the legislature give you a hard time? Not if you communicate directly with the people. Translate your initiatives into language they understand. Explain patiently how your proposed policies will impact upon them and their children. Surveys have already shown that they still trust you more than anyone else. Let the anti-reform party bosses face them.

In a different institutional and cultural context, Koizumi has rooted out the anti-reformers. As Koizumi invoked the bushido spirit to take the path of the warrior, so can you draw upon the semangat bamboo runcing that fired our lance-wielding freedom fighters into routing the fully-armed colonial forces. Act now, Mr. President, the people are with you.

The writer is executive director of the Partnership for Governance Reform in Indonesia.