Leadership crisis to last until after 2004: Analysts

Muhammad Nafik, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

Indonesia's prospects of securing a better future remain gloomy amid the prolonged leadership crisis despite the first-ever direct presidential election in 2004, political analysts say.

They doubted the election would bring about a new national leader desired by most people as the selection of candidates was still determined by the untrustworthy political parties.

The next president would likely come from within the current circle of political elites, they said.

"Like or not it is the political reality. Our prevailing system opens greater chances for the power holders to stay and gives others less opportunity to replace them," Azyumardi Azra, rector of Jakarta's Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University (UIN), told The Jakarta Post.

Political analyst Bachtiar Effendi and noted sociologist Imam Prasodjo concurred, saying the nation would continue to suffer from the serious leadership crisis beyond the elections unless political parties agreed to allow independent candidates to run for office.

Two recent surveys -- one conducted by the Center for Political Studies (CPS) and another by the Institute for Social and Economic Research, Education and Information (LP3ES) -- showed that Indonesians could not identify a figure eligible to lead the country after the 2004 elections.

The surveys also said that most Indonesians consider President Megawati Soekarnoputri, Vice President Hamzah Haz, People's Consultative Assembly chairman Amien Rais and House of Representatives Speaker Akbar Tandjung as being unfit to retain power.

Imam Prasodjo said the survey confirmed the already gloomy leadership outlook.

He argued that the "leadership producing machines" have been impeded by the domination of bureaucracy and the disorder of the political system, which curbed the likelihood of credible leaders rising to power.

"It is impossible that a genuine leader like Sukarno, Hatta or Syahrir (the nation's founding fathers) will appear in the near future," Imam said here on Thursday.

Bachtiar said the political elite currently in power would retain their positions and qualified leaders would remain idle.

Political parties would still have the only say in selecting candidates for the next presidency as stipulated in the election bill being deliberated by the House of Representatives.

Under the draft law, independent candidates are not allowed to nominate themselves for the presidential race.

"Such a mechanism prevents credible and eligible leaders from outside the parties from contesting the presidential elections," Bachtiar said.

Nor will the parties voluntarily choose non-partisan figures as their presidential candidates as this could ruin their vested political interests, he said.

"The political elite will make the selections based on political calculations, not on the common interests of resolving the nation's complicated problems.

"It means that we will face prolonged transitional periods due to the absence of skillful leaders on the stage," Bachtiar said.

The analyst said the direct election should ideally produce a credible and qualified president to rule the crisis-battered country.

However, he stressed that such an ideal was unattainable in the Indonesian context as the practice of money politics could not be avoided in the next elections.

Azyumardi, nevertheless, voiced optimism that the nation would be able to cope with such rising concerns by intensifying public pressure on the political elite to allow credible leaders to take over the next presidency.

"In politics nothing is definite. We should not be pessimistic," Azyumardi said.