Leadership crisis to last until after 2004: Analysts
Leadership crisis to last until after 2004: Analysts
Muhammad Nafik, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta
Indonesia's prospects of securing a better future remain gloomy
amid the prolonged leadership crisis despite the first-ever
direct presidential election in 2004, political analysts say.
They doubted the election would bring about a new national
leader desired by most people as the selection of candidates was
still determined by the untrustworthy political parties.
The next president would likely come from within the current
circle of political elites, they said.
"Like or not it is the political reality. Our prevailing
system opens greater chances for the power holders to stay and
gives others less opportunity to replace them," Azyumardi Azra,
rector of Jakarta's Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University
(UIN), told The Jakarta Post.
Political analyst Bachtiar Effendi and noted sociologist Imam
Prasodjo concurred, saying the nation would continue to suffer
from the serious leadership crisis beyond the elections unless
political parties agreed to allow independent candidates to run
for office.
Two recent surveys -- one conducted by the Center for
Political Studies (CPS) and another by the Institute for Social
and Economic Research, Education and Information (LP3ES) --
showed that Indonesians could not identify a figure eligible to
lead the country after the 2004 elections.
The surveys also said that most Indonesians consider President
Megawati Soekarnoputri, Vice President Hamzah Haz, People's
Consultative Assembly chairman Amien Rais and House of
Representatives Speaker Akbar Tandjung as being unfit to retain
power.
Imam Prasodjo said the survey confirmed the already gloomy
leadership outlook.
He argued that the "leadership producing machines" have been
impeded by the domination of bureaucracy and the disorder of the
political system, which curbed the likelihood of credible leaders
rising to power.
"It is impossible that a genuine leader like Sukarno, Hatta or
Syahrir (the nation's founding fathers) will appear in the near
future," Imam said here on Thursday.
Bachtiar said the political elite currently in power would
retain their positions and qualified leaders would remain idle.
Political parties would still have the only say in selecting
candidates for the next presidency as stipulated in the election
bill being deliberated by the House of Representatives.
Under the draft law, independent candidates are not allowed to
nominate themselves for the presidential race.
"Such a mechanism prevents credible and eligible leaders from
outside the parties from contesting the presidential elections,"
Bachtiar said.
Nor will the parties voluntarily choose non-partisan figures
as their presidential candidates as this could ruin their vested
political interests, he said.
"The political elite will make the selections based on
political calculations, not on the common interests of resolving
the nation's complicated problems.
"It means that we will face prolonged transitional periods due
to the absence of skillful leaders on the stage," Bachtiar said.
The analyst said the direct election should ideally produce a
credible and qualified president to rule the crisis-battered
country.
However, he stressed that such an ideal was unattainable in
the Indonesian context as the practice of money politics could
not be avoided in the next elections.
Azyumardi, nevertheless, voiced optimism that the nation would
be able to cope with such rising concerns by intensifying public
pressure on the political elite to allow credible leaders to take
over the next presidency.
"In politics nothing is definite. We should not be
pessimistic," Azyumardi said.