Lack of platform, national leadership worries West

Despite mounting challenges, the latest being the Bank Bali scandal, Golkar has not changed its candidate for presidency, the incumbent B.J. Habibie. Surabaya-based political researcher Daniel Sparingga talked to The Jakarta Post on the issue.

Question: With ongoing problems, will Golkar look for alternatives to its presidential candidate?

Answer: (B.J.) Habibie is finished. There should be a respectable exit for Habibie. The West likes him because he has liberated politics, press and East Timor; but they are worried because he doesn't have leadership. While the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has kept supporting us for the last 15 months, it was not as a sign of support for Habibie. It was a support for humanity, to prevent anarchy among Indonesians because of poverty.

But Habibie's supporters misunderstand this. They think the West supports Habibie. Habibie should see the differences between the camp which supports him and the camp which doesn't as dynamics in Golkar, and should be willing to step back.

But if he sees it as a conspiracy to topple him, he... may insist on being the candidate.

So there is no common platform and no leadership. It is not easy to have a common platform in a period of rapid transition like this, but usually leadership helps. We don't have either. This makes the West worried.

(Indonesian Military Commander Gen.) Wiranto is different. Without much fanfare, he has gained many credit points from the United States because he didn't use two critical periods in Indonesia to conduct a coup d'etat; first in May last year (at the time when Soeharto quit the presidency) and second last November (during the General Session of the People's Consultative Assembly). But since East Timor his credibility has come into question (the US has now urged that the military abide by civilian control -- ed).

For Habibie, the people might forgive Bank Bali or any other crisis, but not East Timor. The younger generations might support him on East Timor, because of the spirit of liberation and democracy. But the MPR people are still conservative about this...

Q: What would be the effect of the UN inquiry on the chance of Habibie and Wiranto as vice president?

A: I wouldn't be surprised if Habibie resigned at the last minute. But if he is continually cornered and attacked he might fight back. In this case the respectable exit door would be closed.

Q: What do you mean by that?

A: One respectable exit would be for Golkar to drop Habibie's candidacy. But Habibie should see it as his own respectable exit. If he sees it as a fight between those who are pro and against him, or as a conspiracy against him, then he might insist on staying.

Q: And would there still be a chance for the military to have one of their members as vice president?

A: TNI is always negatively perceived here. Wiranto and TNI take the dirt, a heritage from the past... The credibility of Wiranto and the military is questioned regarding East Timor and the coming presidential election... A good sign now is that (regarding a proposed vice president from the military) Habibie and Wiranto now say "as long as it doesn't create strong public reaction" rather than only "as long as it is constitutional and democratic".

Q: The UN inquiry on human rights abuses in East Timor was rejected but it is continuing anyway, while we are trying to set up our own inquiry. Is it feasible?

A: Indonesia is trying to establish a possible compromise, which is to create a fact-finding team open to the presence of international observers. It is interesting that this idea is rejected by some non-government elements in the country. They propose an international fact-finding team in which our National Commission for Human Rights would be only one of the elements. This can be understood because the Commission right now seems to defend the military.

The Commission says it would be independent. Unfortunately, when it cleans the dirt here, someone else dumps some dirt elsewhere. The burnt bodies recently found in East Timor is proof that the Commission cannot control the situation. (The UN inquiry) would first affect the lower ranking officers...

Q: Do you think Indonesia has totally failed in its image abroad?

A: Yes, our public relations is very bad... Back in the 1950s international relations was colored by nationalism; our diplomats still cling to this spirit today. But since the 1980s, nationalism is placed in the context of humanity. Our people still do not understand that international relations is based on humanity, not nationality.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the minister is not to blame. It is the decision makers in Jakarta... (who) should change their approach. Our diplomats often go to foreign countries with predispositions. Instead of trying to understand their hosts, the diplomats are preoccupied with an irrelevant way of thinking. I still remember when I was in Australia in the early 1990s. Our diplomats still thought that the Australian government should control their press. That's just a small example... (Sirikit Syah)