Kyoto: What to expect

Kyoto: What to expect

By ratifying the international regime known as the Kyoto
Protocol, Indonesia took on Monday a small but nevertheless
meaningful step toward meeting its responsibilities with regard
to preserving the earth's environment.

In addition, the country is certain to gain a number of direct
benefits under the protocol's Clean Development Mechanism, which
makes it possible for industrialized countries to invest in
environmentally clean development projects in developing
countries and receive credit for the greenhouse gas reductions
thus achieved. This allows developing countries to keep their
greenhouse gas emissions low, even as they continue to develop
their energy sectors and expand their economies.

Amoseas Indonesia Inc., for example, a subsidiary of U.S.-
based energy giant Chevron Texaco, is reported to have already
applied for "emission credits" provided for by the protocol to
finance a US$100 million geothermal plant expansion project in
West Java. With only a small percentage of the country's
potential -- the equivalent of about 20,000 megawatts of
electricity -- so far tapped, the possibilities that the
provision offers for the future are obviously huge.

The Kyoto Protocol, a direct progeny of the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change that 154 nations signed in
Rio de Janeiro in 1992, aims, in essence, to strike a balance
between the accelerating pace of development in the world and
growing concern about climate change caused by global warming.
Many scientists predict that global temperatures will increase by
1.5 degrees to 4.5 decrees Celsius by 2100 unless immediate steps
are taken to gradually but substantially reduce the emission of
what is known as greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere.

Obviously, such drastic changes in the earth's climate could
have serious consequences for life in most, if not all, the
countries of the world. This, however, is especially true for
archipelagic countries such as Indonesia, which could well see
its borders altered if islands on its perimeter were to be
inundated by rising sea levels. Indonesia, therefore, has a clear
and direct interest in seeing to it that global warming is kept
to a minimum, if for no other reason than to keep its national
territory intact.

The Kyoto Protocol aims to reduce the emission of those gases
from developed industrialized countries by about 5 percent from
their 1990 levels, by 2008 to 2012. Developing countries such as
Indonesia, however, are under no obligation to reduce their
emission of greenhouse gases, the argument being that slowing
down the pace of development in these countries would stall their
growth, with possibly disastrous consequences.

After Monday's ratification of the Kyoto Protocol by the House
of Representatives, there remains only action by President
Megawati Soekarnoputri to sign the document into law. In the
meantime, it would be as well for Indonesians to realize that a
number of hurdles must still be passed before the protocol can
come into force. The Kyoto Protocol will not come into effect
until at least 55 of all the 154 signatories of the 1992 Rio
"earth summit" have ratified the document. In addition, those 55
members must represent the source of at least 55 percent of all
the carbon dioxide emitted in 1990.

With the U.S., which accounts for about 36 percent of total
global emissions, saying that it has no intention of ratifying
the protocol and with Russia procrastinating, there is little
hope that the protocol will become effective anytime soon. Also,
many scientists hold that the protocol, even if it should come
into effect sooner than expected, will not stop the process of
global warming, although it may slow down the rate somewhat. No
less important, the curbing of greenhouse emissions in the
industrialized countries means a slowing down of their economies
that could bring consequences detrimental to the world economy.

Nevertheless, as some observers have noted, the Kyoto Protocol
stands as a mark of progress in the international community's
moral and political thinking about environmental issues, and must
for that reason be welcomed. Alternatives to methods that are
detrimental to the economic growth of the industrialized
countries can and will certainly be found in time. Hopefully, by
then, Indonesia, and the world, will be able to fully take
benefit from the Kyoto Protocol, which it signed on Monday, seven
years after it was conceived.