Kyoto and beyond

Momentous may be too big a word to describe an occurrence around which controversies are still alive and well. Nevertheless, the United Nations Convention on Climate Change, which came into effect on Feb. 13, 2005 -- better known as the Kyoto Protocol -- does mark a significant milestone in the history of cooperation among nations around the world. After all, it is not every day that nations agree to abandon even a small portion of their self-interests for the sake of the common good.

Many hurdles and obstacles had to be overcome and many national interests abandoned before an agreement could be reached on the measures that had to be taken. And even then, more time had to be spent waiting for the 55 parties, including the developed countries responsible for at least 55 percent of total carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in 1990, to sign the agreement, as the Protocol requires.

But despite the noise that has in the past decade been made about the Kyoto Protocol, in essence, the targets that it aims to achieve are quite modest given the gravity of the issues it confronts. Its aim is to slow down the steady warming of the earth's atmosphere, which is caused by the constantly increasing amounts of greenhouse gases released into the air in countries around the globe. The target the Protocol sets is for its signatories to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by at least 5 percent from 1990 levels by the year 2012.

Scientists have established that since the beginning of industrial revolution at the end of the 19th century, global temperatures have risen by about 0.6 decrees Celsius, which in turn has caused sea levels to rise by up to 25 centimeters over the past century. In the longer term, however, this trend, unless kept in check, could lead to catastrophes, the consequences of which are at present difficult to foresee.

While environmental degradation, such as deforestation and the burning of coal and other fossil fuels by tribal communities, home owners and the automotive industry obviously contribute to the trend, the main culprits are the industrial gases that are being released into the atmosphere by industries in the more advanced countries of the world, notably the United States, which has refused to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, arguing that it would hurt its economy.

In any case, as the doomsday sayers foresee, the steadily rising sea levels might eventually cause entire coastal areas to become inundated by seawater, drinking water supplies that are dependent on snow melts would be disrupted, animal and plant species would be driven to extinction and tropical diseases would see a drastic increase in incidence. Fortunately, not all scientists subscribe to such a scenario. Scientists amass large data bases on a historical basis and use them in computerized models that simulate the earth's climate, but their predictions are not always substantiated by actual observation.

Still, the essential message that all this conveys to our present and future generations is that man needs to be constantly reminded of his responsibility toward the environment in which he dwells. Today, we witness the validation of an observation that the Russian scientist Vladimir I. Vernadsky made more than 70 years ago: Through his mastery of technology and his sheer numbers, man has become a geological force, shaping the future of this planet as much as natural forces had done in the past.

For Indonesia, the Kyoto Protocol, which it co-signed last year, obviously brings some real advantages. For one thing, this country surely stands to benefit from the transfer of "clean technology" from the more advanced signatories of the treaty. Under the plan, companies from industrially advanced countries investing in Indonesia would be obliged to calculate the total emissions they would produce and thus use clean energy resources, or sustainable technology, for every new investment project they undertake.

Obviously, being a signatory to the Protocol also brings its obligations. For Indonesia, this means that it must prepare itself for the new era of cleaner technology that is dawning.