Koizumi's desire for drama thwarted

Hiroshi Hoshi, The Asahi Shimbun, Tokyo

A friend of mine gave me a copy of an interesting newspaper clipping from May 1, 1993. It came from the letters-to-the-editor column of The Mainichi Shimbun and concerned a serial novel that the paper had finished running. The writer was "Posts and Telecommunications Minister Junichiro Koizumi, 51, Yokosuka, Kanagawa Prefecture."

Although it is not uncommon for politicians to contribute long pieces to newspapers, not many write letters to the editor about serial novels, as in this case about Kura (The storehouse) by Tomiko Miyao. This is one reason why Koizumi is called an "oddball" in Nagatacho political circles.

What he wrote is quite interesting and frank.

"Every morning, as soon as I get the newspaper, I read Kura before I read the political news section. ... I thought the story would go on and looked forward to it but it ended abruptly ... I wish to urge (the writer) to come up with a sequel in the near future," the letter goes.

In the novel, the 51-year-old owner of a sake brewery marries an 18-year-old woman. Perhaps such a story line struck a chord with Koizumi, who was also 51.

The novel ends with an air of detachment. For Koizumi, who likes stories with "dramatic developments" such as Chushingura (The Tale of 47 Ronin) and operas, it appears the novel's ending was somewhat anticlimactic.

And now, as prime minister, the same Koizumi is staking his political life to achieve his long-cherished goal of privatizing postal services.

The government's latest proposal stuck to the basic principle of selling the shares in the new savings and insurance companies held by a government-owned holding company to eventually achieve privatization.

On the other hand, it also made numerous compromises such as allowing the new companies to hold each other's shares in the future. From the standpoint of achieving "complete privatization," I would give the plan 60 points out of 100 at most.

Those opposing privatization are unhappy, and the tug of war continues within the government and the Liberal Democratic Party.

Even so, an overwhelming majority of LDP lawmakers don't want postal privatization to throw the political situation into a turmoil that could eventually cause the Lower House to dissolve.

The way lawmakers view dissolution has completely changed over the years. Back when the Lower House electoral system was made up of multiple-seat districts in which candidates scrambled for three to five seats, rivalry between LDP candidates gave the party a boost.

But the situation has drastically changed since then. In single-seat constituencies, the LDP's greatest rival is Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan). If the LDP breaks up over postal privatization and more than one candidate from the LDP or its splinter group run in the same constituency, the situation would put the LDP at a great disadvantage. Even if LDP candidates are narrowed down to one per electoral district, it would be a loss to give the impression the party is divided over an important issue.

If confusion within the LDP leads to the dissolution of the Lower House, it could not only cause Koizumi to fall from power but also deliver a fatal blow to his plans to pass postal privatization bills.

Come to think of it, around the time Koizumi was an avid reader of Kura, the political world was heatedly debating the single-seat constituency system. In response to an Asahi Shimbun questionnaire before the July 1993 general election, Koizumi signified his opposition to the single-seat system: "The number of seats in multiple-seat constituencies should be rectified. Reforming the electoral system is not political reform. This argument is deceiving."

Despite such opposition, the single-seat system was established, and three general elections have been fought under it. Along the way, the LDP-Minshuto two-party system is taking shape.

The LDP can no longer afford to plunge into general elections while developing an internal battle that could cause the party to split.

The single-seat constituency system that Koizumi didn't like is making it difficult for a dramatic story to unfold. Though, of course, if the situation leads to dissolution by chance, we may come to see a real-life drama that is far more interesting than a novel.