Koizumi surge reflects sense of crisis

TOKYO: Former Health and Welfare Minister Junichiro Koizumi is taking an overwhelming lead in the prefectural preliminaries of the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election, making it almost certain he will become the next LDP president.

Koizumi has called for party reforms and drastic changes in the nation's politics. His image as a reformist has responded to the expectations of rank-and-file LDP members who want changes, and this has created a surge of support for Koizumi.

In response to his early lead, Koizumi said, "There has been a large eruption of lava."

With this remark, Koizumi was probably referring to a dramatic surfacing of frustration and a sense of crisis on the part of LDP members with respect to the party and the current political situation.

The new LDP president will have to weigh up the opinions of party members and, on this occasion in particular, will have to tackle the issue of reforming the party with a view to rejuvenating politics in the nation.

If this does not take place, the LDP will even end up losing the trust of its own members, in addition to losing its strength as a political party.

Almost nobody predicted that the candidate fielded by the largest faction within the LDP -- former Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto -- would face such a tough race.

About 65 percent of LDP members belong to local business organizations over which the Hashimoto faction has a strong influence. Hashimoto, therefore, was initially considered to be in an advantageous position in the presidential election.

But it has become obvious that the power enjoyed by the Hashimoto faction has stopped short of influencing local members, with a large proportion of members showing their support for Koizumi.

The LDP has long relied on the strategy of earning votes at elections from business organizations and groups, such as the construction industry and government-designated local post offices, in return for beneficial consideration and the protection of their vested interests.

The Hashimoto faction, which developed from a faction led by late Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka, has always been at the center of such maneuvering.

It is somewhat ironic that votes from these industrial organizations and other groups are now flowing in the direction of Koizumi, who is an advocate of terminating the party's protection of its vested interests.

Local LDP members may well have concluded that it was Hashimoto's misjudgment in implementing a fiscal constraint policy during his premiership that is the prime cause of the current business slump, and that the party would be able to fight with greater success in the July House of Councillors election under the leadership of Koizumi, who enjoys a high level of popularity among the general public.

But more fundamentally, it may be said that awareness of politics among LDP members may have dramatically changed in conjunction with socioeconomic changes in the country.

Politics can no longer be based on the distribution of benefits to supporters, as was the case during the period of Japan's high economic growth. It is now necessary for the government to implement policies that require the people to share the burden of the painful process of revitalizing the nation.

An increasing number of LDP members have come to recognize the limited nature of politics in which the party won Diet seats by wooing the support of industrial organizations and other groups through the promise of pork-barreling and the protection of vested interests.

Nevertheless, we cannot help but feel a sense of danger for the nation if the rising support for Koizumi is based merely on hopes that he will implement "reforms." On many points it is still far from clear what exactly his opinions on economic policy and the future of the LDP involve.

The decision to be made by LDP members will reflect the hopes of people from all walks of life. The party's new president, who will assume the country's premiership, naturally has the heavy responsibility of responding to the nation's expectations.

-- The Yomiuri Shimbun/Asia News Network