King of Morocco shows the face of a new generation
By Jonathan Wright
WASHINGTON (Reuters): "The new generation" was the catch phrase of the day on Tuesday as King Mohammed of Morocco began his first state visit to the United States.
Coming hard on the heels of the death of Syrian President Hafez al-Assad, a leading member of an old guard forged by Arab- Israeli conflict and dirigiste economics, the visit reminded policymakers in Washington of the opportunities and risks of political transitions under way in the Arab world.
King Abdullah of Jordan, another youngster who inherited the throne from his father Hussein last year, was in Washington earlier in the month for the latest of many visits.
And Secretary of State Madeleine Albright last week made first contact with the young Bashar al-Assad, the first Arab son in modern times expected to succeed a presidential father.
"What's interesting about the Middle East is that we're moving to a new generation. There are a lot of young leaders in their 30s," Albright said in an interview at the weekend.
President Bill Clinton, welcoming King Mohammed to the White House on Tuesday, said: "Providence called upon you to be one of the voices of the new generation of Arab leaders and you have responded with courage and conviction."
Over lunch on Tuesday, Albright called him "young and dynamic ... a modernizer who respects tradition."
The opportunities, U.S. officials say, are that these three leaders, along with the young new ruler of Bahrain, will break the mould of politics in the Arab world, where strong men and autocratic monarchs have ruled the roost for half a century.
Jon Alterman, a Middle East specialist at the U.S. Institute for Peace, calculated in 1997 that the average term in office for leaders stood at 20 years in the Arab world, far ahead of the next region, Africa at nine years.
That has since fallen sharply, with the death of King Hussein of Jordan in February 1999, Emir Isa of Bahrain in March 1999, King Hassan of Morocco in July 1999 and then President Hafez al- Assad on June 12 this year.
"There's an air of new experimentation going on, of leaders who are more accessible, more engaged with the world beyond the Arab world and more open to change," Alterman told Reuters.
King Mohammed, for example, took the bold step last year of dismissing his father's powerful interior minister, Driss Basri, widely seen as an agent of repression.
King Abdullah has managed a smooth transition and has made modernization of the economy his priority, despite stiff resistance from an entrenched bureaucracy.
In Bahrain, the new government of Sheikhh Hamad bin Isa al- Khalifa is seen as determined to introduce economic reforms and privatization, as well as improve living standards.
"But the thing that has distinguished them most is that they have treated information in a very different way," said Alterman. "They have not relied on censorship and seem happy with developments like satellite broadcasts. That strikes me as the starkest contrast with their fathers."
Martin Indyk, an assistant secretary of state at the time, said last year that the new leaders were also taking steps to reduce chronic tensions within the Arab region.
King Abdullah, for example, has greatly improved relations with the Gulf states, seriously damaged after 1990 when his father took a soft line on the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait.
The challenge for the new leaders is whether they can stay in power long enough to make a difference and devise economic policies that make life better for ordinary people.
"The bottom line is economic development. This is the steam that presses against the valve in all these countries. How are they going to let off the steam," said one U.S. official.
"Abdullah and Mohammed are clearly going beyond mere lip service to economic reform. Their youth gives them the right to deal with entrenched interests, as in the Basri case," added the official, who asked not be named.
"Their fathers' policies did not make the countries wealthy, for the most part. Can a new set of policies deliver better results and, looking 10 years down the line, if the answer is 'no,' then where do you go?" asked Alterman.
The transition also raises interesting questions about the practice of political power in the Arab world, one of the least democratized regions in the world.
On the face of it, the series of father-son successions, especially in republican Syria, would suggest that the national elites are closing in on themselves, rather than opening up political space for outsiders.
But U.S. officials say they prefer to look at how the new Arab leaders use their power, rather than how they acquire it, especially in the context of globalization, easy communications and the higher expectations of young Arabs.
"One consequence of losing a lot of tools of censorship and repression is that governments will have to be, not necessarily more democratic, but more responsive," said Alterman.