Kim leading in election campaign
A steady stream of public opinion polls over the last three months have clearly indicated that veteran South Korean oppositionist Kim Dae-jung might win the presidential election in two months time. Longtime Kim-watcher, and The Jakarta Post Asia correspondent Harvey Stockwin analyses Kim Dae-jung's prospects as the Korean election authorities initiate a worthwhile reform. This is the first of two articles.
HONG KONG (JP): Polls are already closing, as the South Korean presidential election campaign begins to intensify.
This may suggest that the Koreans have got their priorities the wrong way round. In fact, it pointedly illustrates that democracy is alive and well in the South Korean corner of East Asia.
The election does not take place until Dec. 18. Yet it is already possible to speculate that this election may set a more important precedent than its two predecessors.
In 1987, Roh Tae-woo, became the first South Korean ex-general to be elected president in reasonably democratic circumstances.
In 1992, Kim Young-sam became the first civilian to be elected to lead South Korea in over thirty years.
In 1997, just possibly, Kim Dae-jung, the old never-say-die warhorse of Korean politics, will become the first opposition leader to be elected president in Korean history.
From Oct. 19, the Central Election Management Commission (CEMC) has decreed that opinion polls can no longer be conducted by either presidential candidates or political parties.
South Korea's return to democratic ways has been accompanied by a massive surge in the sometimes devious arts of public opinion polling.
In the East Asian cultural climate, democratic citizens who are polled (whether in Japan or Korea) are very inclined to tell those sponsoring a poll what they want to hear.
So a candidate can easily manufacture polls which tell him what he wants to hear about his electoral prospects -- and which can be used to slyly influence the voters.
Not any more, says the CEMC, adding that, from Oct. 19, any such polling will be regarded as "illegal preelection campaigning". Candidates can still anonymously commission polls for their own information -- provided that their sponsorship of a poll is not revealed.
The only polls which can be published from today are "objective and impartial" ones undertaken by professional survey organizations.
Then, three weeks before the election, on Nov. 26, the CEMC will further tighten the rules, by banning any public announcement of any poll, whatever the source.
Further, on election day itself, the press will also be prohibited from conducting or publishing any exit polls which are taken as voters emerge from the balloting booths.
The CEMC motive is plain: it seeks to prevent polls being unduly used as a propaganda tool with which to unduly and unfairly influence the voters.
Voters will go to the presidential polls on December unaware of the ways in which the South Korean majority is making up its mind about the candidates. Those who make up their mind, and vote, late on polling day will not be influenced by exit polls which reveal the way in which the vote is already going.
Clearly, these are worthwhile reforms which other democracies, starting with the United States, could do well to duplicate.
In the U.S. and elsewhere, the massive publication of endless poll results too often dominates election campaigns, while the speedy production of exit polls may even discourage many voters from bothering to exercise their democratic rights.
(A good example of the unfairness of polls came when the exit polls taken in the northeast U.S. were already showing Clinton a clear winner in 1992 and 1996, and the polling booths were still open in California and other western states. Voter turnout in the west was almost certainly reduced as a result -- the exit polls are known to be accurate so if you preferred Bush or Dole, there was no point in going to the ballot box).
Curbing polls may be a worthwhile reform but President Kim Young-sam's government currently has motives of self-interest, as well as of democratic principle, in keeping the pre-election polls secret: longtime Kim Young-sam rival, Kim Dae-jung, is staying ahead in the public opinion polls, despite the ruling New Korea Party's (NKP) determined efforts to throw a lot of mud in his direction.
President Kim has never fully explained how he obtained the very ample -- some would say excessive -- campaign funds which backed his successful campaign for the presidency in 1992.
His second son was recently fined and jailed for indulging in the same corrupt practices against which the President campaigned in 1992, and sought to diminish once he took office.
Yet, with the ruling New Korea Party's candidate now well behind in the polls, and Kim Dae-jung ahead, the NKP has charged Kim Dae-jung with amassing a sizable slush fund through illegal contributions.
So far, nearly all the opinion polls suggest that the charges have backfired against those making them, with the electorate seemingly seeing the accusations of scandal, by Kim Young-sam's party against Kim Dae-jung, as a classic case of the pot calling the kettle black.
If Kim Dae-jung can maintain his plurality in the non-party professional polls which are permitted between now and until Nov. 26, he stands a very good chance of setting that important precedent on Dec. 18.
Strictly speaking, Kim's noteworthy lead in all the public opinion polls so far should not be happening.
Like the opera star who has so often given "farewell" performances that no one now comes to the recitals, Kim Dae-jung has retired from politics enough times to discourage the electorate from giving him their votes.
Instead, the voters have been consistently rewarding his amazing persistence in opinion polls.
Had Kim Dae-jung given way to Kim Young-sam before the 1987 presidential election, then Roh would have been defeated, Kim Dae-jung could have been elected in 1992, and the precedent of an opposition leader winning the presidency would have been set ten years ago.
That 1987 fiasco made many Koreans feel the day was done for the two Kims. Yet by 1991-1992 there they were again, with Kim Young-sam joining the ruling party in order to win the presidency, and Kim Dae-jung leading the opposition once again.
His 1992 defeat made many Koreans feel that Kim Dae-jung would never be president. He "retired" from politics, then founded a new opposition party, then founded another party when he decided to go back on his word and run yet again for the presidency.
This time around, the new party he had founded, the National Congress for New Politics (NCNP), did not automatically reward Kim with the party's presidential nomination. He was contested by a younger opponent but still managed to carry the day.
Thus, eighteen months ago, while Kim Dae-jung-watchers knew he could not suppress his ambition to make a fourth run at the presidency, it was thought to be virtually impossible that Kim Dae-jung would finally succeed in securing the prize he had so often sought.
"Too often the bridesmaid but never the bride" seemed the likely verdict on a political career of many vicissitudes but seemed unlikely to ever marry Kim's intense ambition to winning the ultimate prize, the leadership of South Korea.