Kim Dae-yung completes comeback

In the first of several articles on Kim Dae-jung's accession to the presidency of South Korea, our Asia correspondent Harvey Stockwin describes Kim's remarkable comeback, his partnership with Kim Jong-pil, the third of the legendary "three Kims" and their plans for political reform.

HONG KONG (JP): In a week time Kim Dae-jung will complete one of the great political comebacks of all time as he is sworn in as the first Korean ever to make the transition from opposition leader to president of the nation.

On the one hand, Kim has twice made a comeback -- literally -- from the grave as he avoided execution at the hands of his political enemies, in part because of timely diplomatic interventions by the United States.

There was deep, deep irony in the fact that one of Kim Dae- jung's first acts as president-elect was to request president Kim Young-sam to pardon presidents Chun Doo-hwan and Roh Tae-woo.

Chun once planned to execute Kim Dae-jung in the interregnum between president Ronald Reagan being elected and being sworn in. Officials from the outgoing Carter and the incoming Reagan administrations saw that Chun thought Reagan's tough anti- communism would permit him to execute the oppositionist he saw as a "communist" subversive.

It was always a puzzle why Reagan made Chun his first official Asian guest once he became president. Now we know -- the visit was part of a deal whereby Kim's life was spared.

On the other hand, Kim has refused to accept political defeat, and has kept on coming back from the ranks of the politically dead. His final elevation to the presidency is a case of fourth time lucky. He first ran for president in 1972 when president Park Chung-hee made the mistake of running a reasonably free election -- a mistake he never repeated. Kim Dae-jung secured more votes then -- 46 percent -- than on any subsequent occasion.

Kim Dae-jung and Kim Young-sam split the opposition vote in the 1987 presidential election, thereby making Roh Tae-woo president. Kim Young-sam joined up with Roh and the ruling political party in 1992, enabling him to finally defeat Kim Dae- jung.

Both in 1987, and in 1992, it seemed to many that the era of the three Kims really should be over, and that they should give way gracefully to a new generation of younger Korean politicians.

Kim Dae-jung could only agree in his head, but not in his heart. Several times he has announced that he will quit politics, that he has run his last race. Korea-watchers began looking around for that elusive new generation.

In the end, Kim Dae-jung could not let go, the lure of power was too strong, his heart was always set on just one more race. For a change, in 1997 it was the turn of the younger generation to split the ruling party vote. Kim, who says he is now 73 but whom some sources say is even older than that, finally attained the prize he had sought for so long.

He may feel, like Benjamin Disraeli in 1874, that "I've reached the top of the greasy pole too late" but he has reached the top, and will be doing his damndest to justify his amazing persistence.

Korea and Kim Dae-jung face many profound, not to say momentous problems. Since he was elected last December, because of the pressures arising from the Korean economic crisis, and the need for urgent decisions, Kim Dae-jung has been more a de facto president than just a president-elect. Conversely, and sadly, his old rival and colleague president Kim Young-sam now seems merely a figure-head.

As he awaits his inauguration, Kim Dae-jung is primarily faced with the need for economic reform in South Korea. But Kim has repeatedly made plain over the years, and also since his election victory, the connection he clearly sees between economic advance and political reform. For Kim, the weaknesses and failures of the Korean economy have often been the direct result of past authoritarian politics -- the very system once hailed, at home and abroad, as being vital for economic progress.

So when Kim Dae-jung delivers his inaugural speech on Feb. 25, it will be fascinating to see whether or not Kim Dae-jung, like his predecessors, is content to accept the authoritarianism which naturally clings to the institution of the Korean presidency -- or whether he indicates the ways in which he will change the political system, as previously promised.

As Kim is sworn in, there will not be a vice-president at his side. There is no vice-presidency in the Korean constitution. This reporter does not know the precise reason for this constitutional quirk. The most plausible explanation I have heard is that, given Korea's history of authoritarian politics mixed with devious plotting, no president would ever feel secure with a vice president hanging around doing nothing, waiting for him, the president, to die. A Korean president, it is said, would worry endlessly that any vice-president was intriguing to bring about his speedier elevation to the top job.

Be that as it may, while Kim Dae-jung has no vice-president he does have a constitutional successor. In the event of a president dying, the South Korean prime minister takes over until such time as a new president is elected. The South Korean prime minister is appointed by the president, and does not even have to be an elected member of the National Assembly. South Koreans, in other words, do not elect a successor at the same time as they elect a president.

The interesting thing about Kim Dae-jung's likely prime minister is that he will be the third of the three Kims, Kim Jong-pil, who was first appointed prime minister by president Park Chung-hee way back in the 1960s. In those days Kim Jong-pil plotted against Kim Dae-jung. As boss of the Korean Central Intelligence Agency (KCIA) he may well have had a hand in the first attempted execution of Kim Dae-jung, when he was kidnapped in Japan.

The wheel of fate came full circle in the 1997 election as the two Kims plotted together. Almost certainly Kim Jong-pil's conservative credentials, and support in areas where Kim Dae-jung was weak, made all the difference between Kim Dae-jung winning at last --- or losing for a fourth time.

In return, Kim Jong-pil gets to become prime minister. Far more important than that, the two Kims agreed, as part of their electoral pact, that after a certain period -- probably two years -- they will move South Korea towards being a parliamentary rather than a presidential form of government.

Given Kim Dae-jung's strong democratic convictions, the switch to a stronger role for a prime minister who, together with his cabinet, is directly accountable to parliament, makes eminent sense. The very nature of the presidency in Korea encourages an authoritarian approach. The Korean president, once elected, is not accountable. A prime minister should be accountable, provided that the elected members of Korean National Assembly do their job properly.

The ways in which the two Kims may eventually plan to divide up the constitutional powers of the president as head of state and of the prime minister as head of government is not yet known. Currently, of course, the South Korean president is almost completely responsible for both functions.

Whether or not President Kim Dae-jung succumbs to the authoritarian temptation of his office and changes his mind on changing the Korean political system remains to be seen. It will be an interesting, perhaps crucial, test.

Window A: It was always a puzzle why Reagan made Chun his first official Asian guest once he became president. Now we know -- the visit was part of a deal whereby Kim's life was spared.

Window B: For a change, in 1997 it was the turn of the younger generation to split the ruling party vote. Kim, who says he is now 73 but whom some sources say is even older than that, finally attained the prize he had sought for so long.