June Korean summit spurs global rivalry

By Harry Bhaskara

SEOUL (JP): Pundits at a recent symposium here, mulling over changes in inter-Korean relations, were not sure as to how the political landscape would unfold in the region.

On the surface, one could sense a feeling of envy as the 16 South Korean and foreign scholars discussed the topic, swirling around fears that one country would get ahead of the other in its dealings with North Korea.

The much acclaimed June Korean summit has no doubt spurred global rivalry with China, the United States and Japan in addition to the two Koreas being the major players.

The Nov. 2 symposium was held in the same week with talks between the United States and North Korea in Kuala Lumpur about Pyongyang's missile program and negotiations between Japan and North Korea in Beijing on the normalization of ties. Both talks accomplished little progress.

Hence, the emphasis of the symposium speakers on similar progress in those talks as well as between South Korea and its northern counterpart.

This is so in spite of the claim made by most of the experts in the symposium that they were talking in their personal capacity.

One impression was that the Stalinist state seemed to become a young girl coveted by major powers in the region, notwithstanding the fact that it is often portrayed as a rogue state equipped with nuclear weapons and frequented by famine and economic crisis.

In 1989 when the Eastern European communist countries fell, pundits predicted that North Korea would collapse soon after. The prediction was unfounded.

But underneath the apparent envy were the scholars' concern about the best wave to sail to ensure that the June summit would result in sustainable peace in the peninsula after 50 years of tension.

Some indications of the direction that North Korea is taking were apparent from the recent high-profile talks, notably from its negotiations with the United States about Pyongyang's missile program and with Japan on normalization of relations.

Asked by a participant if the United States would abandon its 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty with Russia if Pyongyang abandoned its missile program, Dr. Andrei Piontkovsky of Russia's Strategic Studies Center said he did not think so.

He said he did not rule out an extension of the ABM treaty to include China and perhaps also Britain and France.

Pyongyang demanded large compensation from the United States in return for it to abandon its nuclear arms program as well as war reparations from Japan. Both the United States and Japan declined the request.

In both these talks, however, North Korea appeared to have the upper hand.

"The Japanese representatives sit like this," Dr. Hideshi Takesada of Japan's National Institute for Defense Studies said while leaning his torso toward the edge of the table. "And the North Korean representatives sit like this," he said, sinking back into his chair.

Takesada was trying to describe to symposium participants the atmosphere prevalent in the Japan-North Korea negotiations.

He said he was not sure whether this was North Korea's tactic but added that he feared what North Korea ultimately wanted was economic benefit.

Takesada said Kim Jong-il used to say there were internal disputes in his leadership circle but he always acted as a leader in any discussion.

North Korea having the upper hand in negotiations appears to be true in the field as well. Soldiers north of here, clearing land mines to restore the Seoul-Pyongyang railway, have temporarily halted their activities.

In the words of one soldier met by The Jakarta Post at a site near the military demarcation line about an hour's drive from Seoul, the termination of their work had something to do with "political negotiations between North and South Korea".

The South Korean army, armed with heavy equipment to remove the mines, appeared more than ready to clear the land to relink the historic railway.

Another incident worth mentioning was when North Korea refused to allow a South Korean journalist to cover the June summit in Pyongyang, simply because the journalist worked for a newspaper known for its criticism of North Korea.

And it is now threatening to cancel the second round of reunions between families torn apart by the 1950s Korean war.

Ambassador Hwang Won-tak, the Korean ambassador to Germany, acknowledged at the opening of the symposium that progress was yet to be made in military confidence building and tension reduction.

Dr. Yoo Ho-yeol of Korea University conceded that there were concerns that North Korea wanted to improve relations with the United States by canceling relations with the South.

"In the past, South Korea emphasized relations with the States only, but since the June summit North Korea has recognized that they can not delay its relations with South Korea anymore," he said.

On the economic front, Dr. Oh Seung-yul of the Korea Institute for National Unification said that as his father's successor, Kim Jong-il needed time for the North's economy to mature.

He brushed aside suggestions that the situation in the North was comparable to China in the 1950s.

"At that time the Chinese were tired of the cultural revolution," he said.

Dr. Oh said that economicwise it was not that easy to unify the two Koreas because of the enormous systemic problems in North Korea.

"Nine billion dollars is not sufficient to rehabilitate the North. And it will not be easy either for the Japanese government to provide funds in the near future because of the negative opinion of the Japanese people," he said.

Dr. Paik Hak-soon of Sejong Institute said the North had not changed from an ideological policy to a consumer-based one. He predicted that the communist country would transform itself in a controlled and gradual way.

"There is no other alternative," he said.

Many agreed that the June summit was a major breakthrough and that the South-North Korean issue can not be resolved by the two countries alone. But peace and reunification need more time to be worked out and North Korea appears to be the one holding others hostage. It seems more likely that it is the one controlling the pace of diplomacy.

The one-day symposium was jointly organized by the Korea Institute for National Unification, Korea Press Foundation and the Korean Information Service.

The writer is the Associate Editor of The Jakarta Post who was invited to the above symposium.