June inflation remains in double digits
June inflation remains in double digits
JAKARTA (JP): Inflation, as measured by the consumer price
index (CPI), increased to 1.67 percent from the previous month's
level and was higher at 12.11 percent on a year-on-year basis,
the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) reported on Monday.
BPS chief Soedarti Surbakti told a press conference that the
higher inflation rate was caused largely by the recent 30 percent
hike in fuel prices.
However, the inflationary impact of the rupiah's weakness was
insignificant as the local unit was relatively stable (at around
Rp 11,300) against the U.S. dollar during the month.
The BPS said that transportation and communications costs rose
by 3.4 percent; processed food, beverages, cigarettes and tobacco
2.38 percent; housing 1.61 percent; and unprocessed food 1.35
percent.
Cumulative inflation from January to June reached 5.46
percent, the BPS said.
"The double digit inflation which has taken hold over the past
few months will likely continue until the end of the year,"
Soedarti said.
The government has set the inflation target for 2001 at 9.3
percent. But many analysts foresee inflation this year as
exceeding the government's estimate due to the electricity rate
hike this month and the weakening rupiah.
Strong inflationary pressure may force Bank Indonesia to
maintain its tight monetary policy by keeping its benchmark
interest rate at above 16 percent.
The interest rate on Bank Indonesia one-month SBI promissory
notes is currently 16.65 percent.
But economists warned that high interest rates would
exacerbate the problems of the ailing banking industry, and
increase the burden on the state budget in covering the interest
costs of the government's bank recapitalization bonds.
The BPS also reported that exports rose by 0.7 percent in May
to US$4.85 billion from the previous month due mainly to an
increase in oil and gas exports.
Cumulative exports from January to May totaled $24.53 billion
or an increase of 2.17 percent compared to the same period in
2000.
The rise in international oil prices from $26.83 percent in
April to $27.85 per barrel in May was responsible for the larger
oil export revenues.
Non-oil and gas exports in May, however, suffered a decline of
0.51 percent to $3.72 billion from $3.74 billion in April, BPS
said.
Contrary to economists' predictions of smaller exports to the
U.S. due to its economic slow-down, Indonesia's non-oil and gas
exports to that country actually rose slightly by $69.4 million
to $665.1 million in May.
Non-oil and gas exports to Japan, Germany, Taiwan, South Korea
and Australia were also up by $34.3 million, $22.5 million, $13
million, $10 million and $4.5 million, respectively.
However, non-oil and gas exports to Singapore, China, and
Malaysia fell by $64.5 million, $28.5 million and 13.8 million,
respectively.
Among non-oil commodities, machinery exports suffered the
largest decrease of $48.2 million to $175.4 million.
Meanwhile, imports in May fell by 2.98 percent to $2.84
billion compared to the previous month due to lower non-oil and
gas imports, the BPS added.
Cumulative imports from January to May, however, increased
32.92 percent to $14.99 billion from $11.28 billion in the
corresponding period last year.
Non-oil and gas imports in May 2001 declined by 6.38 percent
to $2.44 billion from April, but cumulatively they increased
43.56 percent to $13.06 billion compared to the first five months
last year.
The largest group among non-oil and gas imports between
January and May 2001 was machinery and engines at $2.14 billion,
or 16.39 percent of the total non-oil and gas imports.
Imports of consumer goods increased 30.15 percent between
January and April reaching $872.5 million. (tnt)