JSX to be quiet due to religious holidays

JSX to be quiet due to religious holidays

JAKARTA (JP): The religious holidays on Tuesday and Thursday
will drive trading activities on the Jakarta Stock Exchange (JSX)
to a very quiet state this week, according to equity analysts.

"This week's trading will be very slow, affected by the two
holidays during the week," head of research at state BNI
Securities Adrian Rusmana said.

Analysts predicted the JSX would see few active traders as
each trading day this week would be in between non-trading days.

Adrian said trading on the JSX would be sluggish this week,
but he did not expect the Composite index to be deeply depressed
as a result.

"The (Composite) index will decline during next week, but the
slide will not be a steep one as there will only be a few
participants," he said.

Adrian said people here did not like to work on days that were
surrounded by holidays and preferred to take those working days
off for a straight, extended vacation.

An analyst from another state securities house, Joseph
Ginting, agreed with Adrian, saying he had a bearish view of JSX
for next week, but not for the longer-term, as in a term of three
months.

"We are currently getting some incentive-deterring news which
for the time being will linger in the market," he said.

He said the government's problems with the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) and the rumors of a major Cabinet reshuffle
were the negative factors for the market this week.

The IMF said last week that since the Indonesian government
had not met the targets of its economic reform, the next
disbursement of its loan to the country would be delayed until
mid-May.

Meanwhile, rumors spread that president Abdurrahman Wahid --
utterly disappointed with the performance of his economic team --
might replace some Cabinet members after the IMF review of the
reform programs were completed sometime in the middle of this
month.

Joseph said a major change in the economic team would not be
good for the market.

"The market will perceive the Cabinet reshuffle as a signal to
the instability of the country's politics," he said.

He said the government's problem with the IMF and the Cabinet
reshuffle rumors would also depress the rupiah's value against
the U.S. dollar, as happened last week.

"There is fear that further weakening of the rupiah next week
will drag down the (Composite) index as well," he said over the
weekend.

Adrian concurred, saying over the weekend that "The rupiah may
move lower than the important psychological level of 8,000 after
it breached the 7,500 level last week."

However, managing director of PT Bank Buana Indonesia Pardy
Kendi disagreed that the weakening of the rupiah last week was
merely due to the IMF loan disbursement delay and the Cabinet
reshuffle rumors.

"The rupiah's drop last week was caused largely by currency
players' disappointment that there was no massive buying of the
rupiah by IBRA (the Indonesian Bank Restructuring Agency) as
expected following the US$506 million Astra share sale," he said.

He said currency players had a short position for the dollar
in anticipation of IBRA's conversion of its $506 million into
rupiah. But when it failed to realize that last week most players
quickly covered their dollar short position, thus creating a
shock to the rupiah's value, according to Pardy.

"It is very suspicious that the $506 million has not been
converted into rupiah, when the government needs the money in
rupiah to cover its deficit budget spending," he said.

The rupiah closed the week down at 7,620 as compared to its
previous week close at 7,450.

The JSX Composite Index meagerly increased by 0.3 percent last
week to close at 583.27 points, up from 581.47 the previous week.
And the daily average transaction value increased to Rp 670.33
billion, compared to Rp 599.72 billion the previous week.

The daily average turnover increased to 591.7 million shares,
from 457.2 million shares the previous week.

Last week's top gainers were PT Surya Intrindo Makmur, whose
shares jumped 80.00 percent, PT Aqua Golden Mississippi by 45.38
percent and PT Sinar Mas Multiartha by 36.36 percent.

The week's big losers were PT Toko Gunung Agung, whose shares
fell by 32.61 percent, PT Bakrieland Development (down by 28.57
percent) and PT Maskapai Reasuransi (down 25.33 percent).

There were two new companies listed on the JSX last week, PT
Surya Intrindo Makmur and PT Kridaperdana Indahgraha.

The top brokerage firms by transaction value were PT Bhakti
Investama with Rp 335.49 billion in transactions, PT Vickers
Ballas Tamara with Rp 236.57 billion and PT Credit Lyonnais with
Rp 227 billion. (udi)