JP/6/SAYID

JP/6/SAYID

U.S. must consider effects of drawn-out war

How long will the Iraq affair last?

Sayidiman Suryohadiprojo
Former Governor
National Resilience Institute
(Lemhanas)
Jakarta

We are now into the second week of the American aggression
against Iraq and people are starting to wonder how long this
affair will last. Many people, especially in the U.S., thought
the aggression would be a light and quick adventure for its armed
forces, with its overwhelming technological superiority. Not only
is the Iraqi army smaller in number than its U.S., British and
Australian opponents, it also cannot hope to match the U.S.
firepower and mobility. It looks very much like a fight between
David and Goliath.

However, it seems that the fighting is not just decided by the
size of the armies and their technological capabilities. An
equally, perhaps even more, important factor is the fighting
spirit of the Iraqi people and its army. The Americans are aware
of this and have taken the necessary measures to minimize that
factor.

Even before the invasion started the Americans had begun their
psychological warfare efforts, which are ongoing. Leaflets are
dropped and radio and television programs are broadcast to
convince the Iraqi people and army that the U.S. is not fighting
them, but that their aim is to liquidate Saddam Hussein.

And is not the Saddam regime the cause of much suffering for
the Iraqi people? They should therefore not take up arms against
the U.S. and its allies, who come as liberators for the oppressed
Iraqi people.

And why should the Iraqi army fight the U.S. forces if it is
already an established fact that the Americans and their allies
are superior? That would only cause unnecessary loss of life and
sorrow. The quicker Saddam Hussein and his entourage can be
liquidated the better for Iraq. Because the U.S. would then
initiate the reconstruction of the country and the realization of
a democratic and prosperous Iraq.

We saw on television that these psychological operations had
some effect, when Iraqi soldiers were shown surrendering to the
U.S. army and marines while some high-spirited Iraqi people shook
hands with the invading Americans.

However, it also became clear that this was not the whole
picture. The U.S. Central Command had to brief the press that
there were still firefights in Umm Qasr, which three days earlier
had been proclaimed to be in U.S. hands.

That meant the U.S. could not break the Iraqi fighting spirit
entirely. And the reports of fierce fighting in Basra and
Nasiriya are clear indications that the war is far from over. And
still the U.S. and the allied forces have not entered Baghdad,
which must be the main target of their military operations. On
the sixth day of the aggression it was reported that U.S. forces
were about 50 miles from Baghdad.

The U.S. military strategy in the attack on Baghdad seems to
be centered on the use of tremendous firepower, with the launch
of cruise missiles from naval ships far from Iraq and bombs
dropped from B-52 and other bombers. The objective is surely to
hit and liquidate Saddam Hussein and his family and principal
assistants. Another objective could also be to demoralize the
people and army in Baghdad, and convince them that it would be
better for them not to oppose the American invasion.

It is, however, far from certain that the bombings have killed
Saddam. And it is still to be seen whether the Iraqi people and
army in Baghdad are demoralized by the very heavy firepower. If
they are, then the capture of Baghdad by the approaching U.S.
forces will be easy. It would also facilitate the capture of
Saddam, dead or alive. But reported resistance in Umm Qasr, Basra
and Nasiriya suggests there is no guarantee that the Iraqis in
Baghdad will be easy prey for the Americans.

The Americans will face trouble even if they can enter
Baghdad. The Iraqis will definitely challenge the Americans and
allies in urban combat. In urban combat, U.S. technological
superiority will be almost neutralized, because urban fighting
basically relies on the use of small arms.

We remember how the Russians defended Stalingrad against the
German offensive during World War II and how Stalingrad became
the graveyard of many German soldiers. And we don't know how
effective the U.S. and British soldiers are in this kind of
fighting.

For them, the decisive factor could be their professionalism.
For the Iraqis, who are willing and ready to sacrifice themselves
in close combat, the decisive factor could be a fighting spirit
that is motivated by patriotism. Early on Thursday the Americans
had to admit to the loss of a tank by an Iraqi suicide attack
near Basra. The same sorts of attacks, perhaps on a larger scale,
could happen in Baghdad, which would lead to the sad conclusion
that the U.S. invasion will become a drawn-out affair.

And that would have a very significant influence on the
international situation, politically as well as economically.
President George W. Bush seemed to be aware of that possibility
when he stated that the war could last longer than expected.

Have he and his hawkish assistants already considered the new
problems they will have to confront domestically as well as
internationally?