JP/6/BANTAR

JP/6/BANTAR

More than a Democratic failure in the U.S.

Implications of the results
of the U.S. midterm election

Bantarto Bandoro
Editor, 'The Indonesian Quarterly'
Centre for Strategic and
International Studies
Jakarta
bandoro@csis.or.id

The U.S. midterm election on Nov. 7 resulted in control of
Congress by the Republicans, a political advantage with which
relatively few administrations have been endowed. Bush is only
the third president in a century to make midterm gains, after
Franklin Roosevelt in 1934 and Bill Clinton in 1998.

The result was a colossal personal triumph for the president
as he pushes the UN harder toward backing his plans for a war on
Iraq and strengthening his stand on war against global terror.

In this election, the Republicans were assured of 51 seats in
the new Senate, a gain of two; and the Democrats had 48. In the
House, Republicans have 227 seats, gaining four, while Democrats
have 203. The results proved the ability of the Republicans to
capitalize on the patriotism and support for George Bush,
unleashed by last year's Sept. 11 attacks on New York and
Washington.

The midterm election result was indeed a great disappointment
for the Democrats. It was a dark moment for the American liberal.
Frustrated Democrats lashed out at their political leadership for
their failure to retain control of Senate or make gains in the
House, as well as losing in some races they had been expected to
win.

The Democrats have problems that will go beyond the
difficulties they might face in the 2004 election when Bush
stands for reelection. Not only this. Perhaps the Democrats might
have to rethink their fundamental strategy to ensure that they
can counter the Republicans' lead.

The triumph for the Republicans means many things for Bush's
foreign policy. The midterm election is one whose results will
reverberate, not just around America, but the world, from the UN
to Jerusalem, Riyadh, Pyongyang, Baghdad, Southeast and East Asia
and Europe. It will also push the White House realpolitkers, the
Cheney-Rice-Rumsfeld lobby, to adopt a more rigorous approach to
the world's issues.

What the world will see is a more swaggering and unilateralist
America, more impatient than ever of treaties and other
international agreements that it sees as limiting its power.

The victory of the Republicans has demonstrated that Bush will
become even tougher against Iraq. The resolution the U.S. tried
to win at the UN will establish a series of "trip-wires" for an
attack, should Baghdad fail to cooperate with the UN weapons
inspectors.

The resolution is expected to win overwhelming approval from
the strong permanent five members, though France and Russia were
still calling for the removal of certain ambiguities in the
resolution. If the resolution is in favor of the U.S., it will be
a very strong indication of the revival of "Bushism" in U.S.
foreign policy.

The sweep of Republican successes has perhaps been a
referendum on war against terror, Iraq, U.S. foreign policy and
national and international security. Bush made that his drumbeat.
He is determined not to let go of the uncompromising foreign
policy style of the U.S..

The vote serves as a war mandate. The American people wanted
to show solidarity with the Bush administration's war against
global terror and their full support for the White House's
national security approach.

Even before the Republican Party hit the jackpot in the
midterm elections, war against Iraq was already likely. Now, it
is inevitable unless Saddam Hussein fully complies with his
international obligations.

Bush's management of current world affairs is not without risk
to America's global position vis-a-vis the developing world. As
the U.S. is leading a global war against terror, the developing
world, particularly the Muslim world, will see Bush's policy as
irrational.

Although little can be done by the Muslim world to counter the
impact of the more unilateralist approach of the U.S., its
reaction to the possibility of American attacks on Iraq tells the
world of its disagreement over the use of force in handling
international issues. The end results would be a new type of
world order: The world, which seems to consist of those
supporting global terror on the one hand, and those who are
against terrorists on the other.

The U.S will now witness a more unilateralist, more
belligerent and anti-environmentalist American presidency. Such
characteristics will certainly bring the U.S. into a more
rigorous approach to world problems, justifying the U.S. as the
only superpower left in the world. It seems as if Bush has gained
historic, resounding endorsement.

The Democrats would not oppose the president at a time of war.
But these results will undoubtedly embolden Bush as he pushes the
world body to back his plans to invade Iraq and the war against
terror. The incalculable damage that such a conflict would do to
world peace, rather than the tally of governorships and
Congressional seats, represents the true scale and the real price
of the Democrats' failure.

The Republicans' victory has provided a safe place for Bush in
the U.S. 2004 election and has thus guaranteed a more belligerent
and unilateralist foreign policy.