JP/18/FACTOR

Factors influencing current social tensions

The survey of key respondents in May 2003 identified three main factors believed by respondents to be the causes of current and future social tensions.

Among the factors are economic pressures (65 percent), social problems (64 percent) and political tensions (59 percent). The action of provocateurs (49 percent), poor community relations (39 percent) and the impact of illegal activities (38 percent) were considered less important.

The upcoming national elections in April 2004 may certainly increase social tensions between political parties.

The violent clashes last week in Buleleng followed clashes between supporters of different parties in Buleleng, Badung, Tabanan and Denpasar that had arisen since May 2003.

Political tensions are predicted to be further heated prior to the election period.

In some areas, forums of political parties have been formed with the goal of ensuring that the elections run peacefully and smoothly. Interviews with respondents of various subdistricts revealed an increased apathy toward political parties and elections. The respondents seem most concerned that the parties are not focusing on issues and political education, but rather on mobilizing supporters in a show of strength that only creates security concerns within the community.

In certain areas, apprehensions that political parties may cause divisions in the community -- if support is based on adat (customary law) or family ties -- exists.

Bali has taken measures to improve security in tourist areas, especially at key strategic facilities such as the international Ngurah Rai airport. Local neighborhood security systems have also improved following the Kuta tragedy.

The local police has identified ten main security threats including terrorism, violent crimes, narcotics, small-arms trade, women trafficking, people smuggling, money laundering, fraud and deception, fights between banjars (local communities) and most importantly, conflict between political parties.

Based on the joint report issued by donor agencies, and other information, it is crucial for the government, the police and members of political parties, as well as the community, to act with caution and restrain from violent action.