Jockeying for power sacrifices reform

"Prepare to bid farewell to reform if all presidential aspirants continue to jostle for power," political researcher Muhammad A.S. Hikam said in an interview with The Jakarta Post.

Question: Fifty-one members of the National Awakening Party (PKB) who became members of the People's Consultative Assembly have declared under a bai'at on Wednesday to vote for Megawati Soekarnoputri. Does this mean chances for the presidency are dashed for Abdurrahman Wahid, the PKB founder and candidate of the "axis force," the alliance of Muslim-based parties?

Answer: No, the bai'at cannot be used as an indicator (of an individual's allegiance). Only a party sanction would be binding; the bai'at only gives psychological strength to Megawati's candidacy. The bai'at in Islam is a promise which individuals can change in the face of strong reasoning.

Q: Do you agree that the "axis force" has real strength, bearing in mind it has more than 163 seats in the legislative bodies?

A: No, such calculations include the National Mandate Party (PAN) and PKB, and I'm sure over half of PAN members don't agree with the candidacy of Gus Dur. Maybe the "axis force" just represents (the leaders) themselves. I don't accept the argument that they represent Muslims... those who voted for Megawati's party (the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle or PDI Perjuangan) were largely Muslims.

I have always said Gus Dur should not run against Megawati... If they compete with each other it would be to the advantage of a third party, like the military or Habibie.

Should a deadlock happen only then should Gus Dur become the alternative, he could work with anyone. He would be able to offer concessions (to Golkar) like taking many able Golkar people into the government, but only those acceptable to the public.

Q: So how do you see Abdurrahman's chance for the presidency?

A: The "axis force" would only be strong among others if Golkar dropped (President B.J.) Habibie as their candidate, then Golkar members would all shift their vote for Megawati or Gus Dur.

These would be many of the "nationalist" members who no longer agree with Habibie.

PKB members could also then rush back (from their promise to vote for Megawati) to support Gus Dur. Maybe Gus Dur could insist on their support for the sake of solidarity for Nahdlatul Ulama (the Muslim organization which Abdurrahman chairs, in which many PKB members are members).

So the best thing to do, before everything is too late, is that Gus Dur supports Megawati, and Golkar becomes an opposition party with the "axis force". This would be very good for democratization. Golkar has the political experience and the most skilled human resources, and would be an effective balancing power to PDI Perjuangan.

This would also give the opportunity for Golkar to prove that in the next five years it could become a force to be appreciated in politics... they could still be in power again. If they're just greedy like they are now, they will remain a small party.

Q: Would you say Megawati's chances are good?

A: PDI Perjuangan is stronger (regarding support for their candidate) but it still has to work hard. I've heard Golkar can convert 17 PDI Perjuangan members (to vote for Habibie )... maybe for money or for other reasons. These would include the members from the eastern islands. That's politics...

So it is such a pity that the team (of party representatives) drawing up the internal rules for the People's Consultative Assembly are recommending a closed voting mechanism ... It is vulnerable to money politics; parties will not be able to control their members' discipline. And it is very important for the public to know which members are consistent to their party's candidates, which Golkar members would vote for Megawati, or which PDI Perjuangan members would vote for candidates other than Megawati.

Q: How much is one vote worth these days in money politics?

A: It can go up to Rp 2 billion I hear.

Q: So who actually still supports Habibie?

A: Apart from the ICMI (Association of Indonesian Muslim Intellectuals), maybe the military if (Indonesian Military/TNI) Gen. Wiranto is proposed as vice president. Of course that would be stupid to do and would be the worst scenario. Golkar has estimated it has only 79 members supporting Habibie.

Q: How do you see the possibility of PDI Perjuangan allying with Golkar?

A: It is very possible and it would erode the quality of Megawati's legitimacy. A terrible possibility is an alliance of Golkar, PDI Perjuangan and the Indonesian Military; again we would be welcoming an authoritarian regime. Then it's about turn and goodbye to reform.

An alliance with Golkar could happen if PDI Perjuangan feels cornered; it doesn't want to become an opposition and it wouldn't want to waste its votes of almost 35 percent of the population.

It is true it would be a pity to waste all those votes but becoming the opposition would be better than building an alliance with Golkar.

PDI Perjuangan indeed would be very strong; with Golkar they wouldn't need the votes of anyone else such as PKB or TNI.

It looks like PDI Perjuangan will do anything to win; democracy needs compromising but it should not be to the extent of compromising principles.

Even if PDI Perjuangan has to work with Golkar, it should only be with its members and not the institution. If it does, it can no longer claim to be a reformist force. (anr)