Jockeying for power sacrifices reform

Jockeying for power sacrifices reform

"Prepare to bid farewell to reform if all presidential
aspirants continue to jostle for power," political researcher
Muhammad A.S. Hikam said in an interview with The Jakarta Post.

Question: Fifty-one members of the National Awakening Party
(PKB) who became members of the People's Consultative Assembly
have declared under a bai'at on Wednesday to vote for Megawati
Soekarnoputri. Does this mean chances for the presidency are
dashed for Abdurrahman Wahid, the PKB founder and candidate of
the "axis force," the alliance of Muslim-based parties?

Answer: No, the bai'at cannot be used as an indicator (of an
individual's allegiance). Only a party sanction would be binding;
the bai'at only gives psychological strength to Megawati's
candidacy. The bai'at in Islam is a promise which individuals can
change in the face of strong reasoning.

Q: Do you agree that the "axis force" has real strength, bearing
in mind it has more than 163 seats in the legislative bodies?

A: No, such calculations include the National Mandate Party (PAN)
and PKB, and I'm sure over half of PAN members don't agree with
the candidacy of Gus Dur. Maybe the "axis force" just represents
(the leaders) themselves. I don't accept the argument that they
represent Muslims... those who voted for Megawati's party (the
Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle or PDI Perjuangan) were
largely Muslims.

I have always said Gus Dur should not run against Megawati...
If they compete with each other it would be to the advantage of a
third party, like the military or Habibie.

Should a deadlock happen only then should Gus Dur become the
alternative, he could work with anyone. He would be able to offer
concessions (to Golkar) like taking many able Golkar people into
the government, but only those acceptable to the public.

Q: So how do you see Abdurrahman's chance for the presidency?

A: The "axis force" would only be strong among others if Golkar
dropped (President B.J.) Habibie as their candidate, then Golkar
members would all shift their vote for Megawati or Gus Dur.

These would be many of the "nationalist" members who no longer
agree with Habibie.

PKB members could also then rush back (from their promise to
vote for Megawati) to support Gus Dur. Maybe Gus Dur could insist
on their support for the sake of solidarity for Nahdlatul Ulama
(the Muslim organization which Abdurrahman chairs, in which many
PKB members are members).

So the best thing to do, before everything is too late, is
that Gus Dur supports Megawati, and Golkar becomes an opposition
party with the "axis force". This would be very good for
democratization. Golkar has the political experience and the most
skilled human resources, and would be an effective balancing
power to PDI Perjuangan.

This would also give the opportunity for Golkar to prove that
in the next five years it could become a force to be appreciated
in politics... they could still be in power again. If they're
just greedy like they are now, they will remain a small party.

Q: Would you say Megawati's chances are good?

A: PDI Perjuangan is stronger (regarding support for their
candidate) but it still has to work hard. I've heard Golkar can
convert 17 PDI Perjuangan members (to vote for Habibie )... maybe
for money or for other reasons. These would include the members
from the eastern islands. That's politics...

So it is such a pity that the team (of party representatives)
drawing up the internal rules for the People's Consultative
Assembly are recommending a closed voting mechanism ... It is
vulnerable to money politics; parties will not be able to control
their members' discipline. And it is very important for the
public to know which members are consistent to their party's
candidates, which Golkar members would vote for Megawati, or
which PDI Perjuangan members would vote for candidates other than
Megawati.

Q: How much is one vote worth these days in money politics?

A: It can go up to Rp 2 billion I hear.

Q: So who actually still supports Habibie?

A: Apart from the ICMI (Association of Indonesian Muslim
Intellectuals), maybe the military if (Indonesian Military/TNI)
Gen. Wiranto is proposed as vice president. Of course that would
be stupid to do and would be the worst scenario. Golkar has
estimated it has only 79 members supporting Habibie.

Q: How do you see the possibility of PDI Perjuangan allying with
Golkar?

A: It is very possible and it would erode the quality of
Megawati's legitimacy. A terrible possibility is an alliance of
Golkar, PDI Perjuangan and the Indonesian Military; again we
would be welcoming an authoritarian regime. Then it's about turn
and goodbye to reform.

An alliance with Golkar could happen if PDI Perjuangan feels
cornered; it doesn't want to become an opposition and it wouldn't
want to waste its votes of almost 35 percent of the population.

It is true it would be a pity to waste all those votes but
becoming the opposition would be better than building an alliance
with Golkar.

PDI Perjuangan indeed would be very strong; with Golkar they
wouldn't need the votes of anyone else such as PKB or TNI.

It looks like PDI Perjuangan will do anything to win;
democracy needs compromising but it should not be to the extent
of compromising principles.

Even if PDI Perjuangan has to work with Golkar, it should only
be with its members and not the institution. If it does, it can
no longer claim to be a reformist force. (anr)