Jiang plans to step down on schedule

By Ching Cheong

SINGAPORE: China's President Jiang Zemin told a group of overseas Chinese in New York recently that he would step down as Communist Party chief in 2002 and as state President in 2003.

He did not say anything about giving up his third post -- the most important of the three -- of chairman of the powerful Central Military Commission (CMC).

This was the first confirmation from Jiang himself that he would step down on schedule, at least partially.

The announcement also confirmed news which emerged from recent discussions held by top leaders at the Beidaihe retreat that he would give up two hats but retain the third.

If he does as he says he will, he would be following in the footsteps of his mentor, former leader Deng Xiaoping.

As long as he has military power in his grip through the CMC chairmanship, he would have no problem being, de facto, the top man in China.

When the leaders met in Beidaihe, one crucial objective was to develop a consensus on the new leadership line-up to be presented at the 16th Chinese Communist Party Congress in 2002.

While it is still two years away, preparations for the meeting have already begun.

"This congress will see the largest reshuffle in two decades," said an official at the party's Organization Department, who did not want to be identified.

"About 50 to 60 percent of the full and alternate members of the Central Committee will be replaced. Higher up the hierarchy, the figure will be even bigger. At the apex, the Standing Committee of the Politburo, 70 percent of the faces will be new."

He said the last time a major reshuffle took place was about two decades ago, when the Maoist line stressing class struggle was replaced by Deng's idea to give priority to economic construction.

The next reshuffle would be dictated by the overriding concern of inducting younger people into the entire leadership structure.

"The next congress is significant also in the sense that it marks the transition of power from the third generation to the fourth," he said.

"Therefore, extra care has to be exercised to ensure that power is vested in the hands of the right people."

The deliberations which took place at the Beidaihe retreat were followed keenly, not just by China watchers abroad but more so by the Chinese themselves.

It is understood that consensus-building during the annual meeting was not easy.

In wanting to retain the CMC chairmanship, Jiang violated the commitment he made at the 15th Party Congress in 1997.

At that congress, he used the age criterion to force Qiao Shi, seen as his strongest challenger, into retirement.

He insisted that all Politburo members who were older than 70 had to step down.

The only two people who were in this age bracket at the time were Qiao, then 73, and Jiang himself, then 71.

He managed to exempt himself by insisting that his own position was irreplaceable which was, to some extent, true at that time.

But he pledged that he would retire at the 16th Party Congress.

Clearly, if Jiang were to violate his commitment at the next congress, he would need to have good reasons to justify his action or accept conditions set by his peers.

The uncertain cross-strait situation following the ascendancy of a pro-independence government provided a perfect excuse for him to continue wielding military power.

At the same time, he was prepared to accept the terms set by the party's No 2, National People's Congress (NPC) chairman Li Peng, who has been his ally for the past decade.

According to sources, Jiang agreed, in exchange for Li's support for him to retain the CMC chairmanship, to spare the latter and his family from an anti-corruption probe, and to present a positive image of his role in the 1989 Tiananmen crackdown.

Li has been blamed largely for sending troops into Tiananmen Square to crack down on the demonstrators while both his wife and son are implicated in corruption scandals.

He was said to have been worried that he, or his family, might become targets of persecution once he was out of power.

According to Jiang's plan, the youngest Politburo member, Hu Jintao, now 58, would become the CCP general secretary, state President and CMC vice-chairman at the next congress.

However, observers in Beijing are hesitant to conclude that this would be the final line-up as the evolving relationship between Hu and Jiang's confidant, Zeng Qinghong, could produce surprises.

Hu is seen largely as having been picked as Jiang's successor by senior party elders, including late patriarch Deng Xiaoping and the late Song Ping.

If Jiang were given a choice, he would most likely choose Zeng to succeed him.

While Hu may be China's Vice-President and a vice-chairman of the CMC, he does not wield real power, unlike Zeng.

According to a source, Zeng, who heads the Organization Department, controls both the stick (referring to criminal evidence of wrongdoing by senior leaders or their family) and the carrot (promotion prospects).

While Hu enjoys institutional legitimacy from the titles he holds, Zeng enjoys Jiang's special favor, a factor that could tip the balance in the future.

Observers noted that whenever Hu rose up the hierarchy, so did Zeng, leaving no doubt in anyone's mind about the challenge that Jiang's aide poses.

There is, therefore, much speculation that if Hu gets the posts of CCP general secretary and state President, then Zeng could become CMC's general secretary, a post left vacant since 1992 when Deng removed Gen. Yang Baibing for fear that he might overshadow Jiang, the CMC chairman.

A source close to Hu said that, because of this delicate situation, he had been extremely careful and kept a low profile deliberately.

As to who will become the next premier, it is said that a lot of horse-trading took place behind the scenes.

It is known that Jiang's preferred choice is Li Changchun, the party secretary of Guangdong province, while Premier Zhu Rongji has Wen Jiabao, currently Vice-Premier, in mind. Most observers in China are agreed that the four men -- Hu, Zeng, Li and Wen -- will be the ones to watch at the next congress.

The source cautioned that with two more years to go, a lot could change.

In fact, he said that during the Beidaihe retreat, more consensus was reached on middle-ranking officials at the top.

In other words, last-minute changes are not to be ruled out.

-- The Straits Times / Asia News Network