Jiabao-Manmohan summit: Will China am-Bush India?

Siddharth Srivastava, New Delhi

One comparison consequent to the meetings of Chinese premiere Wen Jiabao with the Indian leadership has been vis-a-vis Indo- U.S. relations. The U.S. in the recent past has made it apparent that it wants India to play a critical geo-strategic role in maintaining the balance of power in the Asian region, keeping in mind the growing influence of China.

Apart from the occasion arising due to the visit of U.S. secretary of state Condoleezza Rice, President George Bush called Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to apprise of U.S. intentions which will find its application in cooperation in nuclear energy (thus in a way legitimizing India's nuclear weapon status), arms supplies as well as possible joint production of arms.

As one comment put it, the U.S. is seeking to carry its relationship with India onto a completely different plane, despite the little lollipops in the form of F-16 fighters to Pakistan to keep the country happy.

No such assertion, however, can be made about China, following the Jiabao' visit. While both the countries have been following pragmatic diplomacy, it is in the face of the humongous rise in business relations between the two countries. This is due to the internal dynamism in India and China consequent to the change in economic structures with both the nations embracing capitalism with jest.

It is to the credit of the Indian and Chinese dispensation that diplomatic relations have not been allowed to impinge on economic matters, unlike India and Pakistan wherein the border and terror kerfuffles have not allowed the two economies to flourish in tandem.

The Jiabao's visit, in contrast to the recent overtures by the U.S., makes it apparent that while it is international politics that is coalescing Indo-U.S. relations it is business that drives the Sino-Indian entente. After all trade flourishes between China and Japan despite the political suspicions about each other.

While is true that India and China have come a long way since the war in 1962 followed by frigid relations in the 1970s and 1980s, it can be safely said that peace and the happy interludes in such vexed issues as re-drawing the borders between the two countries, have endured because of the eagerness to capitalize on each others economic strength -- manufacturing, hardware, software and services.

The status quo of the 1993 agreement has been retained over the border question post the Manmohan-Jiabao meeting. For the first time China has acknowledged Sikkim to be a part of India but large regions in the western and north eastern India remain in the realm of disagreement, with China refusing to provide maps of the line of actual control along the western sector. Indian officials maintain that the Chinese approach is to keep border negotiations deliberately de-focused with no immediate resolution in the near future.

China has said that it supports India's bid to the UN, but when it has come to the specifics in the reform process, both China and U.S. have been at the forefront to block any expansion of the Security Council, the latest instance being the call for consensus in the general assembly on the issue. Thus, strictly going by what exists on paper, apart from the adding billions to Sino-Indian trade figures, there is not much more to write home about on the diplomatic front, apart from the fact that military skirmishes remain a strict no-no.

India, though, is always wary of China's military ambitions including in the Indian Ocean region as well as the strong military relations with Pakistan that dates over five decades. India's foreign secretary, Shyam Saran, did clarify post-the Tuesday Jiabao-Manmohan meeting that the India-China "strategic and cooperative partnership" was not a military alliance and not directed at any third country.

Prior to his India visit, Jiabao was in Pakistan when the joint production of the JF-17 fighter aircraft, a project that was initiated because of the hitherto ban on F-16 fighters by the U.S., commenced. Wen also spoke of joint nuclear energy production, making it apparent that China's security concerns for the region still veer against India.

It is difficult to say which paradigm will be better and stand the test of time -- India and U.S. or India and China.

From India's point of view, there is a need to tread very carefully. It is for the first time that the country has been drawn into the vortex of global geo-politics and business. In the past U.S. concerns in this region have been plugged to Pakistan, whether to take on the Soviet Union in the cold war era or the subsequent "war on terror." Changes are taking place in the Middle East, Iraq, Lebanon with Iran likely to join the unpredictable shortly.

The U.S. interests have also veered to Syria, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. India has more or less been a silent spectator. So has the case been with Sino-Indian relations with China constantly seeking Pakistan while ignoring India for most of its history as an independent nation since 1947.

With both China and U.S. looking to engage India which is a reflection of its growing status, it is incumbent upon the country to make the best of the situation, without getting sucked into a disadvantage by either. Indeed, in an era where no blocs exist, no black and white stands are apparent, it is best to judge each overture on merit, while maintaining enough flexibility.

The writer is a New Delhi-based journalist and can be reached at srivastava_siddharth@hotmail.com.