Java set to remain population center

JAKARTA (JP): Java, despite intensive transmigration programs, will remain the country's most populated island with 58 percent of the population by 2004, according to a new report.

Population density of the island, which makes up just 6.6 percent of Indonesian territory, will rise from 938 per square kilometer to 1,000. The rest of the country has a population density of about 50 people per square kilometer.

A report on population growth by the Central Bureau of Statistics, presented here yesterday to President Soeharto by Coordinating Minister for People's Welfare and Poverty Eradication Haryono Suyono, said 81 percent of the population would reside in the western part of Indonesia -- Sumatra, Java and Bali -- comprising less than 32 percent of the country's land mass.

The report was made as a projection of population growth during the Seventh Five-Year Development Program (Pelita VII) which runs from 1999 to 2004.

The report said the population was expected to increase by over 23 million to reach 225.7 million by 2005, with West, East and Central Java continuing to be the most populated provinces. The population currently stands at about 202.1 million.

The most populated provinces are located in the western part of Indonesia: West Java with 46.9 million, East Java 37.1 million, Central Java 33.1 million, North Sumatra 13.1 million and Jakarta 10.3 million. In the 1990 population census, Java's population, including Yogyakarta, was 107.7 million.

The least populated areas by 2005 are predicted to be East Timor with one million residents, Bengkulu 1.8 million, and Southeast Sulawesi and Central Kalimantan with two million each.

Population growth is expected to decrease from 1.5 percent annually in the 1995/2000 period to 1.25 in the first five years of the new century.

Based on age, the report said Indonesia still had a "young population", due mainly to the high fertility rate in past years. But the age makeup will move upward slightly as the young generation ages.

Those included in the productive age bracket, between 15 and 59 years, will increase during Pelita VII, from 124.8 million to 138.3 million, an increase of about 2.7 million annually and of which men will comprise 1.4 million.

Despite dire economic hardships faced by Indonesians today, life expectancy is predicted to increase from 64.7 years to 67.9.

Males, while increasing their life expectancy from 62.8 to 65.9, can still expect to be outlived by women, who will boost their life expectancy from 66.7 to nearly 70. (prb)