Java, eastern Sumatra to have longer dry season

Java, eastern Sumatra to have longer dry season

YOGYAKARTA (JP): Changes in the climate pattern will result in
a nine-month-long dry season, affecting mainly Java and the
eastern part of Sumatra between July of this year and March 2002,
an official said on Wednesday.

The forecasted length of the dry season is two months longer
than normal.

Head of the Meteorology and Geophysics Agency (BMG) Gunawan
Ibrahim said that this year's dry season would start later and be
longer than usual as a result of a high ridge of pressure in both
the southern and northern hemispheres of the globe.

"The natural phenomenon will also cause uncertain climate
conditions for Java and some parts of Sumatra," he said on the
sidelines of a seminar on the 2001 El Nino and the Impact of the
2002 Long Dry Season on Plantations.

He said the rains that fell over the past few days would be
the last as the dry season would come soon.

Gunawan warned that the dry season could be twice as long if
the El Nino weather phenomenon returns at the beginning or
halfway through 2002.

El Nino is an unusual weather trend which causes a rise in
water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and a deviation in global
wind and rain patterns.

Gunawan warned farmers to rearrange their schedule for
planting and choose certain species of plants which did not
require much water.

"We can hardly find any indications of a possible appearance
of El Nino this year, but based on our analysis the phenomenon
could appear at the beginning of 2002. This is what we are
worrying about," he said.

"There is a 25 percent probability that El Nino will appear in
2002. We will have a more accurate prediction when we come closer
to the estimated appearance of El Nino," he said, adding that the
agency would continue to update data ahead of the predicted time.

El Nino was blamed for severe droughts across Indonesia in
1997, which lasted about nine to 11 months.

Gunawan said that El Nino would affect the eastern and central
parts of Indonesia the most.

Based on the 1982 occurrence of El Nino, only the eastern part
of the country was affected, but since 1991 the central parts of
Indonesia have also been severely affected, he said.

Gunawan also told the seminar that his agency, in cooperation
with the Research and Development of Technology Agency (BPPT),
several state universities and the agriculture ministry, were
currently preparing a seasonal prediction with more accurate
results for every region in the country.

He said the main goal of the research was to meet the need for
effective and efficient planning in agriculture. (44)