Java, eastern Sumatra to have longer dry season

YOGYAKARTA (JP): Changes in the climate pattern will result in a nine-month-long dry season, affecting mainly Java and the eastern part of Sumatra between July of this year and March 2002, an official said on Wednesday.

The forecasted length of the dry season is two months longer than normal.

Head of the Meteorology and Geophysics Agency (BMG) Gunawan Ibrahim said that this year's dry season would start later and be longer than usual as a result of a high ridge of pressure in both the southern and northern hemispheres of the globe.

"The natural phenomenon will also cause uncertain climate conditions for Java and some parts of Sumatra," he said on the sidelines of a seminar on the 2001 El Nino and the Impact of the 2002 Long Dry Season on Plantations.

He said the rains that fell over the past few days would be the last as the dry season would come soon.

Gunawan warned that the dry season could be twice as long if the El Nino weather phenomenon returns at the beginning or halfway through 2002.

El Nino is an unusual weather trend which causes a rise in water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and a deviation in global wind and rain patterns.

Gunawan warned farmers to rearrange their schedule for planting and choose certain species of plants which did not require much water.

"We can hardly find any indications of a possible appearance of El Nino this year, but based on our analysis the phenomenon could appear at the beginning of 2002. This is what we are worrying about," he said.

"There is a 25 percent probability that El Nino will appear in 2002. We will have a more accurate prediction when we come closer to the estimated appearance of El Nino," he said, adding that the agency would continue to update data ahead of the predicted time.

El Nino was blamed for severe droughts across Indonesia in 1997, which lasted about nine to 11 months.

Gunawan said that El Nino would affect the eastern and central parts of Indonesia the most.

Based on the 1982 occurrence of El Nino, only the eastern part of the country was affected, but since 1991 the central parts of Indonesia have also been severely affected, he said.

Gunawan also told the seminar that his agency, in cooperation with the Research and Development of Technology Agency (BPPT), several state universities and the agriculture ministry, were currently preparing a seasonal prediction with more accurate results for every region in the country.

He said the main goal of the research was to meet the need for effective and efficient planning in agriculture. (44)