Japan's shining star dims in Southeast Asia

Japan's shining star dims in Southeast Asia

Don Pathan, The Nation, Asia News Network, Tokyo

From the killing fields of Cambodia to the region-wide
economic crisis in 1997, cooperation between Japan and ASEAN has
come a long way.

There have been some ups and downs but all in all, the Japan-
ASEAN alliance has satisfied each side's needs. ASEAN, during the
hectic Cold War years, needed powerful friends. Japan, on the
other hand, saw in the regional grouping a forum to expand its
sphere of influence.

It hasn't been smooth sailing, however. The move to engage
Southeast Asia came at a time when the region's leftists
perceived the Japanese as American lackeys, not a business
partner that could be trusted.

Tokyo took the perception seriously and went back to the
drawing board. The outcome was the 1977 Fukuda Doctrine that
called for a "heart to heart" understanding between the two
sides.

The announcement of the doctrine was timely and a source of
comfort for ASEAN amid blaring propaganda over the "red scare",
the domino theory and then the invasion of Cambodia by Vietnamese
troops to oust the murderous Khmer Rouge.

Japan's friendship towards ASEAN during the Cold War years was
highly appreciated. At the Jakarta Informal Meeting (JIM),
Japan's active participation helped paved the way for the
historic Paris Peace Accord that helped put a lid on the bloody
conflict in Cambodia and laid the foundation for democratization.

Tokyo demonstrated its determination to gain influence in the
region in the aftermath of the bloody 1997 coup when Hun Sen
drove his co-premier Prince Norodom Ranariddh out of Phnom Penh
and pushed royalist troops to the Thai border. Japan brokered a
political settlement that lead to the general election in 1999.

Perhaps Japan's most noticeable contribution was in economic
assistance and infrastructure development aimed at bridging the
gap between the richer ASEAN members and the new ones -- namely
Cambodia, Laos, Burma and Vietnam.

Japan chaired and funded numerous studies on infrastructure,
economic and human resource developments in the Greater Mekong
Sub-region in an arrangement that was largely defined as donor-
recipient, although "equal partners" became the preferred
expression for the diplomats.

Next week Japan is expected to announce its "unwavering
support" for the region at the ASEAN-Japan Commemorative Summit
in Tokyo. The two sides are expected to reiterate their
commitment to "act together and advance together" in the new era,
says Shinichi Nishimiya, deputy director-general of the Japanese
Foreign Ministry's Asian and Oceanic Affairs Bureau.

To commemorate ASEAN-Japan Exchange Year 2003 -- in which the
summit will be the crowning event -- over 700 cultural,
educational and academic events have been organized.

While the summit will be an opportune time to look back at
past achievements, the event also comes at a time when Tokyo's
position in the region is standing on shaky ground.

Observers say Tokyo can no longer count on its largesse to win
ASEAN hearts and minds. Some say it will have to rethink its
approach amid growing Chinese influence in the region.

Beijing has worked hard to woo ASEAN since 1995 when a
statement from the grouping condemned China's conduct over
Mischief Reef, part of the disputed territory in the South China
Sea.

It has tried to behave responsibly, vowing to exercise self-
restraint around the disputed area. Consequently, Beijing for the
first time agreed to negotiate with other claimants to the area.

China also won some brownie points from ASEAN during the 1997
economic crisis by deciding not to devalue its currency, the
yuan. Conversely, Japan was not able to make any capital from its
US$80-billion (Bt3.2 trillion) assistance package and its
decision to reschedule debt repayment.

Furthermore, when the idea of an Asian Monetary Fund
resurfaced, Japan balked at the idea for fear that it would
antagonize the United States.

Tokyo's Chiang Mai Initiative in 2000 calling on the region to
be less dependent on the US greenback and more on regional
currency -- meaning the yen -- was deemed as too little, too
late.

At the ASEAN summit in Phnom Penh last year, China gained
tremendous ground at the expense of Japan when prime minister Ju
Rongji proposed a Mekong development scheme aimed at integrating
southern China into the heart of Southeast Asia.

Projects under this scheme included a power grid and road
construction, including the Asian Development Bank-studied Route
3 that would link Yunnan to Chiang Rai through northern Laos.

Besides personnel, China is offering soft loans to the Lao
government to develop the transnational highway, which is doing
more to enhance Beijing's strategic interest than the economic
activities that will be generated by the road.

As for reconciliation in Burma -- ASEAN's black sheep -- some
members, including Thailand, are leaning towards China to help
push through a road map aimed at legitimizing the military junta.

The magic Japan produced in Jakarta two decades ago that
helped end to the "Killing Fields" is no longer there, it seems.
What Japan will do now is debatable, for there is no indication
that Tokyo is willing to think differently and act differently.