Japan's political reform pace still slow

Amid massive indifference, Japan has continued its snail's pace progress towards political reform, as a result of the triennial election to half of the Upper House of Councilors, held last Sunday. Yet, not many Japanese or foreign observers have noticed this positive fact, amid a surprising degree of post- election media and business pressure for the ruling coalition government to resign and call an immediate general election for the House of Representatives. The Jakarta Post Asia correspondent Harvey Stockwin reports.

HONG KONG (JP): Technically, the ruling coalition did not perform too badly. Before the election it held 158 seats out of 252 in the House of Councilors. When the final results became known early on Monday morning, the coalition still had 148 seats, a total which quickly increased to 151, as three independents speedily abandoned their freedom and rushed to join the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

But clearly in the eyes of many Japanese, the election made a negative impression.

Since the overall seat losses had been held to a minimum, the three coalition partners probably felt it safe to continue in office. But part of the trouble was that the three party leaders of the coalition had met and decided to keep things just as they were, with Prime Minister Tomiichi Murayama remaining in office, before the results were announced, rather as if the voters didn't matter.

Out of that piece of arrogance arose editorials in all the major newspapers on Monday demanding that the government resign and call a fresh election for the more important House of Representatives. "Unless Japan revamps politics immediately, Japan will gradually decline and not be able to steer a course toward the 21st century" the largest circulation Yomiuri Shimbun concluded.

The next Lower House elections are not due for a little under two years, but so much has happened in the last two years, since the 1993 general election, that another trip to the hustings seems mandatory.

Faced with this unusual display of Japanese political anger, the three leaders met again on Monday and decided that there would be a cabinet reshuffle early in August. Whether media and business critics will be mollified by this gesture, or whether their anger will be sustained and thereby force more reluctant gestures from Murayama, who leads the Socialists, Foreign Minister and LDP leader Yohei Kono, and Finance Minister and Sakigake (New Pioneer Party) leader Masayoshi Takemura, remains to be seen.

For now the fact that the ruling coalition stays together positively oozes with the petty calculations that have given Japanese politicians a bad name.

Murayama does not want to do the honorable thing and resign after defeat because, if he goes, the election results could not justify another Socialist prime minister being chosen.

Kono cannot reach for the top job because if he did it might well trigger a power struggle with other LDP leaders.

Takemura, having left the LDP to found Sakigake, could not possibly serve under an LDP Prime Minister. Takemura is better qualified for the premiership than Murayama -- but Kono could not possibly serve under a former LDP rebel.

So the Yomiuri Shimbun may well be right. When its politicians are obsessed with reflexes such as these, Japan may indeed arrive in the 21st century devoid of any political vision.

Yet, in fact, it is possible to see these recent elections as fitting into Japan's long, very slow, march towards a more viable two-party political system.

First and foremost, while Murayama remains prime minister, the Socialist Party which he leads has moved one more step closer to ultimate oblivion.

The fateful step which the Socialists took last summer -- when they abandoned their principles and helped restore the long- ruling LDP to power -- deservedly returned to haunt them at the polls.

The Socialist's fall from grace was the more dramatic because the members of the Upper House running for re-election this year were first elected six years ago. In retrospect, it seems that 1989 was a final political hurrah for the Socialists. The election then took place as anger peaked over the Recruit Scandal, and over the imposition of a three percent consumption tax.

For once the Socialists actually did better than the LDP, securing 46 seats out of the 126 at stake.

But the party which called itself "Democratic Socialist" only in English, and which, in Japanese, still competed ideologically with the Japan Communist Party on the extreme left of the political spectrum, simply lacked the ability to capitalize on that victory. It finally attained power in 1994 in collusion with the LDP -- the party it had resolutely opposed for the preceding 39 years.

The very size of the 1989 victory increased the extent of the Socialist's fall in 1995. The Socialists held 41 seats in the Upper House at dissolution, and Murayama aimed to retain 22 seats. In fact only 16 Socialists were returned.

The result was particularly bad in the prefectural constituencies where the Socialist won only seven out of the 27 seats which it won in 1989. It did slightly better in the proportional representation voting.

The Socialists lost the position they have held for the last 40 years -- that of the second largest party in the House of Councilors. The Socialists have not been able to capitalize on the decline in LDP strength. Those Socialists who have argued that it was time to dissolve the party and to form a broader- based, less ideological party have been full vindicated.

Table:

The Japanese House of Councilors election 1995

Political parties seats seats seats seats

before retained won held

Ruling coalition Liberal Democratic 94 61 46 110 * Socialist 63 22 16 38 Sakigake 1 1 2 3

Opposition Shinshinto 35 16 40 56 Communists 11 6 8 14 Komei ** 12 11 - 11

Small parties 19 3 5 8 Independents 15 6 9 (15) 12***

Total 250**** 126 126 252

Seats before : strength before election Seats retained : not up for election this time Seats won : in both prefectures and PR Seats held : Total strength for 1995-98 term

* Including 3 independents who joined LDP after election ** Dissidents from old Komeito who have not joined Shinshinto *** Three independents immediately joined LDP **** Two vacancies unfilled before election