Japan's Ozawa set to have his voice heard
By Teruaki Ueno
TOKYO (Reuters): Ichiro Ozawa, leader of the junior partner in Japan's coalition government, has wasted no time in making clear his Liberal Party does not plan a passive role in deciding how the world's second-largest economy gets out of its economic morass.
With the alliance with Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) just two weeks old, Ozawa has forthrightly said LDP actions in the past on the economy were wrong and more urgent action is needed.
In an interview with Reuters Television on Wednesday, Ozawa also warned that the conservative Liberals were only in the coalition as long as they were happy with government policy.
While some political analysts see Ozawa's words as the bravado of a weaker partner wanting public respect, they do not rule out the significant influence the Liberals can have on the government.
Just as the fledgling Liberal Party needs to be in government as a way of building up voter recognition for the future, Obuchi needs Liberal votes in parliament to ease the way for legislation revive the recession-hit Japanese economy.
While the LDP has a comfortable majority in the 500-seat Lower House it is 11 seats short of a majority -- even with Liberal support -- in the 252-seat Upper House, which though less powerful can delay and even kill legislation.
"By leaving the possibility open for the Liberals to leave the coalition, Ozawa can have more say in making policy decisions," said Akio Watanabe, politics professor at Aoyama Gakuin University in Tokyo.
"Prime Minister Obuchi won't be able to refuse to accept policy ideas presented by Ozawa. It would be suicidal for Obuchi to reject them," he said.
In his interview with Reuters, Ozawa accused the LDP of pouring huge amounts of taxpayers' money into public works projects in a bid to revitalize the economy -- a tactic that has been a pillar of LDP economic and voter policy for decades.
"We don't think that the methods the government is adopting at present are sufficient to reconstruct Japan's economy," Ozawa said.
Like it or not, Obuchi has to listen to Ozawa and accept most of his policy ideas, political analysts said.
But they added that the balancing act required to keep the coalition together should ensure Japanese politics remained relatively stable at least until the next general elections.
The prime minister must dissolve the Lower House by August 2000.
"After the next general elections, Japanese politics is likely to be plunged into another round of turmoil because neither the LDP nor the Liberal Party is expected to win a majority in the Lower House," Watanabe said.
Roger Buckley, a professor at the International Christian University in Tokyo, agreed the LDP was in better shape with the Liberals than without them, even if Obuchi's party had to put up with an occasional scolding from Ozawa.
"I suppose the LDP view is that they'd rather have Ozawa around than against them," Buckley said. "The view is that it's better to have Ozawa in their camp than not; that it's better to try to accommodate his views.
Buckley also felt the Liberals' entry into government was a good thing for Japan because it injected new thinking into policy decisions on fixing Japan's worst-ever recession.
"There has been a deafening silence, no new ideas on invigorating the economy... Good for Ozawa if he can make constructive comments on the economy," Buckley said.
Other analysts believe that if there is a threat to Obuchi's future, even though he is at last winning growing public support, the danger comes from within his own LDP.
Ahead of a party election in September, when Obuchi's job as leader or president comes up for vote, there have emerged growing signs that the party is on the verge of a behind-the-scenes power struggle.
In what could be a major threat to Obuchi, who heads the biggest faction within the LDP, two smaller factions have started to discuss a possible merger.
A 21-member group headed by former Construction Minister Shizuka Kamei and a 41-member faction founded by former prime minister Yasuhiro Nakasano and now led by Upper House legislator Masakuni Murakami, if merged, could become the third-biggest force within the LDP.
Former defense minister Koichi Kato has already said he is making preparations to challenge Obuchi for the LDP's top spot which carries with it the post of prime minister.
"I believe Japanese politics will be stable at least until the next general elections," Watanabe said. "But there is always some degree of unpredictability in Japanese politics."