Japan tense as early polls loom

Takeshi Uemura The Daily Yomiuri Asia News Network Tokyo

The political situation in 2003 will be tense with Diet members pressing for a dissolution of the House of Representatives so that a general election can be held.

As the year draws to a close, leading politicians in both the ruling and opposition camps have begun discussing the possibility of a lower house dissolution and general elections in connection with the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential elections. Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's term as LDP leader expires in September.

LDP Secretary General Taku Yamasaki recently stated that the lower house would not be dissolved before unified local elections in April, nor would double elections for both houses of the Diet be held in 2004.

Former Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone predicted the Diet would be dissolved in June or July, while Mikio Aoki, LDP secretary general for the House of Councillors, was quoted as saying he expects the lower house to be dissolved in June.

Naoto Kan, newly elected leader of the main opposition party, Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan), is "99 percent sure" the lower house will be dissolved for general elections in 2003.

Some LDP Diet members are suggesting that the lower house be dissolved as soon as the fiscal 2003 budget clears the regular Diet session, which convenes in January, and that general elections should be set for April 27, when the second round of local elections and unified Diet by-elections will be held.

Lawmakers already are ordering election posters and will make the rounds of supporters in their constituencies over the year- end and New Year's holidays. Once they start, they won't be able to stop. They need campaign funds, and if they run out of money they will ask for an early dissolution as they cannot spend endlessly.

This has been the pattern of general elections have followed in the past.

Most leading politicians foresee the dissolution of the lower house in June, mainly because of the LDP presidential election.

Shizuka Kamei, former chairman of the LDP Policy Research Council, has declared openly on various occasions that Koizumi will never be reelected as LDP president.

Until a month or so ago, Aoki, the most influential figure in the upper house, repeatedly said he would like to see simultaneous elections in both houses of the Diet when the lower house term expires in 2004 as double elections would favor the LDP and the party could recover a simple majority in the upper house.

Now, Aoki sees double elections in 2004 as unlikely and believes there is little likelihood of Koizumi being reelected LDP president unless the prime minister alters his policies and political style. Nakasone and other LDP strongmen, like former Secretaries General Hiromu Nonaka and Makoto Koga, hold similar views.

However, there is a growing sense among LDP Diet members that Koizumi will dissolve the lower house before his term as LDP president expires in September if his opponents within the party try to block his reelection.

Koizumi's aides believe that if the prime minister leads the party to victory in the election, his opponents in the party would find themselves hard-pressed to replace him as party president and prime minister.

The lower house has never been dissolved while the Diet is not in session. The next regular Diet session is likely to be convened on Jan. 20 and to close on June 18. Assuming the lower house is dissolved during the regular Diet session and before the LDP presidential election, it will be in either June or July even if the Diet session is extended, according to political pundits.

The lower house has been dissolved for general elections after unified local elections in the same year on only three previous occasions: By the Ikeda Cabinet in 1963, the Ohira Cabinet in 1979 and the Nakasone Cabinet in 1983. The three dissolutions all took place in autumn during extraordinary Diet sessions.

If Koizumi dissolves the lower house during the upcoming regular session, it will mark the first dissolution of the lower house during a regular session.

However, a lower house dissolution during the regular session is now being talked about as a reality as Koizumi's administration is likely to face difficult challenges from early next year.

Former Prime Minister Kiichi Miyazawa has expressed concern that financial institutions will likely strengthen their efforts to collect loans before the current fiscal year ends in March, which could trigger corporate bankruptcies in what may be termed a "March crisis."

Koizumi's once unprecedented popularity is ebbing as voters are increasingly disappointed by his economic policies. If the economy sinks deeper, public support for Koizumi could further decline, in which case anti-Koizumi forces within the LDP would gain momentum and be encouraged to depose him.

The political situation would then rapidly become tense in view of the growing possibility of a lower house dissolution.

Koizumi's aides assert that the prime minister should counter opposition moves by encouraging a battle between reformists and the old guard. Some are formulating a strategy of intentionally raising politically divisive issues, such as contingency bills and revisions to the Fundamental Law of Education, distinguishing political forces according to their stances on these issues and eventually realizing political realignment.

These tactics are more or less aimed at containing anti- Koizumi elements within the ruling coalition. But now that Koizumi's reform style gradually is losing its luster, it is doubtful whether such tactics will work magic. Koizumi will stand at the crossroads in 2003.