It's time for Megawati to break the silence

By Rahayu Ratnaningsih

BOGOR (JP): Pondering over an interesting, if "blasphemous" wish from Soedjati Djiwandono (The Jakarta Post , June 16, 1999) for Indonesia to adopt the Indian-Pakistani model, dividing ourselves peacefully into two separate sovereign states, one secular, the other Islamic, secular nationalists surely can't help feeling the same way.

As foreseen by many, Megawati's path toward the presidency is still a rocky one, despite her party's imminent victory in the general election. Islamic groups, led by the Indonesian Muslim Intellectual Association (ICMI) -- which claim to represent the aspirations of the Muslim community, some 85 percent of Indonesia's population -- are once again displaying their paranoia that the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) won't be able to represent the Muslim majority.

ICMI chairman Achmad Tirtosudiro was quoted by the Post (June 16) as saying: "I cannot imagine if the minority groups dominate and play an influential role in the deliberation and the establishment of the laws... It's unthinkable."

This is a fallacy. Women make up the majority of the population of this country, so does it mean that women should dominate the House of Representatives (DPR) and the government, while his own groups are quite conservative in regard to women's leadership?

Additionally, according to the ongoing electoral results that Tirtosudiro claimed to have wholeheartedly accepted, the majority of the population voted for PDI Perjuangan, or supported Megawati for the presidency. The fact that PDI Perjuangan has many non- Muslim legislative candidates is irrelevant, because logically the party wouldn't have performed so well without a majority of Muslim supporters.

Hence, ICMI's insistently presumptuous claim of speaking for the Indonesian Muslim population as a whole is misleading and unsubstantiated. Muslims are by no means a monolithic group of people, and the Muslims that ICMI represents, though not an insignificant group, belong to the minority. So, Tirtosudiro should stop using the erroneous majority-minority dichotomy, because it is obvious that the majority of Indonesian Muslims do not share his and his group's divisive aspirations. They are aspirations which actually only disguise a greater purpose, namely making Habibie the next president or, in other words, maintaining the status quo.

What they should remember is the fact that a majority of Megawati's supporters were unflustered by the Indonesian Ulema Council's (MUI), ICMI and their Islamic group supporters' insidious last minute campaign to sabotage the expected PDI Perjuangan-Megawati victory.

This should be sufficient indication for them that their manipulation of Muslims' religious sentiment is useless, selfish, and dangerous, and should be stopped immediately. This is a repulsive political maneuver from those who claim to be religious.

Another fact tells us that even in many of the United Development Party (PPP)'s traditional Muslim bases, such as Madura, a significant exodus to PDI Perjuangan occurred. In those places, PDI Perjuangan also won. Had a majority of Indonesian Muslims wanted the type of representatives that ICMI or MUI forced through, they would have voted for PPP or one of the other numerous Islamic parties. But they didn't, so ICMI has to be fair and accept this without reserve. This is the time for the people's voice to be heard, despite -- it goes without saying -- ICMI's or Achmad Tirtosudiro's covert objection to what they want, or say.

Nurcholish Madjid, the country's most prominent Muslim reformist, even expressed his concern over this irrational fear. He called for Islamists to engage in some introspection. The reason they were unfit to win the elections was because of their erroneous paradigm. They emphasized the sentimental-emotional line, and they were lazy to initiate discourses. He further said that religious-based simplifications and sentiments bear no relevance to politics, despite the majority of the population professing to Islam. Other than being irrelevant, if such an emotional attitude is maintained and cultivated, Muslims shall never make meaningful progress on the country's political stage.

Even Amien Rais has shown admirable sportsmanship. He is standing by an earlier statement in which he said he would comply with the election results by giving the first opportunity for presidency to the winning party's candidate. He has expressed a willingness to coalesce with PDI Perjuangan and the National Awakening Party (PKB).

However, he understandably holds some reservations about Megawati's commitment to reform. He has challenged her to clarify certain points that his party has been fighting for, i.e. amendment of the I945 Constitution, abolition of the military's dual function, wholehearted pursuit of Soeharto's wealth and his trial and allowing an open discourse on federalism.

Unless PDI Perjuangan's stance on these issues is clarified, he cannot make an immediate decision. So, it's clear that the ball is in Megawati's court. It is her choice now whether to remain deafeningly silent and play princess as usual, or be proactive by trying to clarify an ongoing polemic among her critics regarding her stance toward reform.

Silence is not always golden, especially when her position in the current political constellation is under a big question mark, while her loyal supporters expect her leadership to be a fait accompli. It is a test she should be relied upon to at least defend by refuting her opposition.

She should, for heaven's sake, help her people to help her by being more communicative, proactive, responsive and reachable. Regarding Amien's currently undecided stance, people can only expect that he realizes it is better to choose Megawati as the lesser of two evils (Megawati and Habibie).

Habibie, as no one can fail to have noticed during the past year of his administration, has proved himself to be a part of the problem, not the solution, to our crisis. A coalition with Golkar will only ruin his reputation and disappoint his supporters. Admittedly, while Megawati shows a semblance of being reform-oriented, she is worryingly conservative in comparison to Rais' progressiveness. That doesn't mean, however, that the two can't mix.

As many analysts have stated, the only viable coalition for the ruling party is between PDI Perjuangan, PKB, and Amien's National Mandate Party (PAN). This will be even more difficult to dispute considering the most unfortunate reality that despite its number three position in the number of votes gained, Golkar exceeds PKB's seat gains in the DPR and People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) twice over.

This means Golkar is the second strongest party, and if this is not followed up by the aforementioned coalition, the likelihood is that Golkar, with its ICMI-led Muslim supporters, possible PPP support and the military, will rule for the eighth time.

Even if PAN, so far has obtained only 9 percent of the vote, it shouldn't feel downhearted, because PAN is a future party and Amien has great potential to be a future leader of the country. Time is on his and his party's side. The more educated Indonesian people are, the stronger his party's support base will be. Analyst Wimar Witoelar said PAN would be needed in the coalition as a spice which would make the "dough consisting of the two main ingredients tastier".

While Amien doesn't seem to be overly concerned by Megawati's gender, despite Gus Dur's modernist stance, the more conservative PKB factions will strongly object to allowing Megawati to be the country's next leader. This can pose as an unfortunate predicament for the country, because, as Amien said, proposing alternative presidential candidates would be undemocratic and a kind of betrayal to the people who had the image of their chosen leader in mind while voting.

It is true that PDI Perjuangan does not have an absolute victory, but looking at the reality of our multi-party system that has allowed 48 parties to contest the election, absolute victory is a remote possibility by any means. PDI Perjuangan's current realization of approximately 40 percent of the vote is a spectacular gain, since it has defied popular predictions that the winner would obtain a maximum 30 percent to 35 percent of the vote.

Hence, maturity and sportsmanship among the "losers" should prevail. What parties should remember is that their common uncompromising goal of eliminating the remnants of the New Order, manifested in Golkar, should override personal ambitions and group interests.

It will be saddening if the anti-status quo parties are not only fighting against Habibie, but also Megawati. If that happens, and sadly symptoms are beginning to indicate that this will happen, we can kiss our struggle for reform goodbye.

Hence, Gus Dur's and Alwi Shihab's moderate influence should be able to appease this objection among their party's Islamic clergy. Ideal or not and like it or not, Megawati is the most deserving candidate for the position. And she definitely won't take 32 years to leave the job, so the coveted position of president will be available to other suitable candidates in future elections.

When Golkar has been subdued, then we can start fighting among ourselves for whatever vision, mission, and aspirations each of us is striving for, and, in so doing, attempt to resolve our differences at that stage.

Minister of Home Affairs Syarwan Hamid proposed PDI Perjuangan and Golkar should rule together, an idea that will surely be opposed by many. Nurcholish Madjid suggested Golkar coalesce with PPP to form a strong opposition and forget the dream of returning to the power stage for a (long) while, especially considering the thousands of vote-rigging reports it is accused of in almost every area. Thirty-two years are enough to be nauseating, it should -- and this is not negotiable -- give an opportunity to others.

PDI Perjuangan's victory is the Indonesian people's victory. Give it a chance to govern from within a coalition and appoint its presidential candidate. Should it be just another incarnation of the status quo, there are many opportunities in the future to topple it democratically, just as Golkar is now under pressure.

The writer is director of the Satori Foundation, a center for the study and development of human excellence through mind- programming techniques.